CMB International: Expects Alibaba-W's cloud revenue to accelerate quarter by quarter, maintains target price of HKD 159

Zhitong
2025.05.19 03:34
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Jiaoyun International released a research report stating that it expects Alibaba-W's revenue growth for the fiscal year 2026/27 to be 5% and 9%, and profit growth to be 4% and 14%. The market share of Taotian e-commerce has stabilized, the monetization rate continues to improve, and cloud revenue is accelerating quarter by quarter. The firm maintains a target price of HKD 159 and a "Buy" rating. The report indicates that revenue in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 increased by 7% year-on-year, with the overall revenue growth of Gaoxin/Yintai at 10%, exceeding the firm's previous expectation of 8%. Adjusted EBITA increased by 36% year-on-year, and adjusted earnings per share increased by 23%, which was below the consensus expectation of institutions. The firm stated that Taotian has seen accelerated CMR growth for two consecutive quarters, proving the ongoing trend of improved monetization rates on the e-commerce platform, estimating GMV and CMR growth rates for the June quarter at approximately 5% and 11%. Capital expenditure investment rhythm fluctuates with market changes, and it is expected that the cloud business will see a trend of accelerating growth quarter by quarter in the fiscal year 2026, with increases of 19% and 20% in the first quarter and for the full year, respectively. Adjusted EBITA may still be affected by fluctuations in Taotian's investments, and Alibaba Cloud's profit margin is expected to stabilize in the high single digits, with international business and local life continuing to aim for profitability

According to Zhitong Finance APP, Jiangyin International released a research report stating that it expects Alibaba-W (09988) to have revenue growth rates of 5% and 9% for the fiscal years 2026/27, and profit growth rates of 4% and 14%. The market share of Taotian e-commerce has stabilized, the monetization rate continues to improve, and cloud revenue is accelerating quarter by quarter. The firm maintains a target price of HKD 159 and a "Buy" rating.

The report indicates that revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 increased by 7% year-on-year, with the overall revenue growth of Hema/Yintai at 10%, exceeding the firm's previous expectation of 8%. Adjusted EBITA increased by 36% year-on-year, and adjusted earnings per share increased by 23% year-on-year, which was below the consensus expectation of institutions. The firm stated that Taotian has seen accelerated growth in CMR for two consecutive quarters, proving the ongoing trend of improved monetization rates on the e-commerce platform, estimating GMV and CMR growth rates of approximately 5% and 11% for the June quarter. The pace of capital expenditure investment fluctuates with market changes, and it is expected that the cloud business will see a trend of accelerating growth quarter by quarter in the fiscal year 2026, with increases of 19% and 20% in the first quarter and for the full year, respectively. Adjusted EBITA may still be affected by fluctuations in Taotian's investments, and Alibaba Cloud's profit margin is expected to stabilize in the high single digits, with international business and local life continuing to aim for profitability

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