Next week's heavy schedule: China's April economic data, global PMI, G7 finance ministers meeting, CATL's IPO in Hong Kong, Microsoft and Google conference

Overview of Major Financial Events from May 19 to May 25, all in Beijing Time:

Key Focus This Week: China will release economic data for April including retail sales, real estate investment, and the May LPR quotation. S&P Global will announce PMI indices for major economies, CATL will be listed on the Hong Kong stock market, and Microsoft and Google will hold developer conferences, with Jensen Huang delivering a speech.

In addition, several Federal Reserve officials will give speeches, Baidu and Bilibili will release their Q1 financial reports, Germany will announce April PPI, and Japan will announce April CPI.

China's April Economic Data Released

On Monday (May 19), the National Bureau of Statistics released data on China's April retail sales, year-on-year industrial value added, urban surveyed unemployment rate, and other indicators.

Data released last month showed that China's nationwide real estate development investment from January to March decreased by 9.9% year-on-year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 3% year-on-year; China's retail sales of consumer goods in March increased by 5.9% year-on-year; industrial value added above designated size increased by 7.7% year-on-year; first-hand second-hand housing prices turned positive month-on-month again, and the year-on-year decline in housing prices across various cities continued to narrow.

Zhang Yu, chief macro analyst at Huachuang Securities, analyzed that the economic indicators for April may reflect a state of "stable volume and weak prices." It is expected that exports may still show some resilience due to the impact of U.S. import demand, while consumption continues to benefit from "upgrading old for new," and manufacturing and infrastructure investments will continue to benefit from "dual heavy" and "equipment upgrades."

At 10 a.m. that morning, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the national economic operation.

May LPR Expected to Decrease by 10 Basis Points

On Tuesday (May 20), the People's Bank of China will announce the May LPR quotation.

On May 7, Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that to further implement a moderately loose monetary policy, the central bank will strengthen macroeconomic control and introduce a package of monetary policy measures.

Pan Gongsheng stated that starting from May 8, the policy interest rate (7-day reverse repurchase rate) will be lowered by 10 basis points to 1.4%, which is expected to lead to a simultaneous decrease of 10 basis points in the LPR on May 20.According to a downward adjustment of 10 basis points, the LPR quotes for the 1-year and 5-year terms will decrease from 3.1% and 3.6% to 3% and 3.5%, respectively, ending the previous 6-month "standstill" situation.

UBS China economist Zhong Hui expects that under the continued deflationary pressure and high uncertainty, the central bank will further cut interest rates by 20-30 basis points within 2025.

US May PMI Preliminary Value

On Thursday (May 22), the US released the preliminary value of the Markit Composite PMI for May.

Data released last month showed that the US April Markit Manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.7, unexpectedly recording expansion; the preliminary values for the services and composite PMIs were below expectations, with the composite PMI preliminary value hitting a 16-month low, although all remained in the expansion range.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, commented on the PMI preliminary data, stating that tariffs are considered the main reason for price increases, although it has been reported that labor costs are also continuously rising, leading companies to raise sales prices at a pace not seen in over a year. The price increase in manufacturing reached the highest level in nearly two and a half years.

However, the recently released April CPI data was relatively mild and did not seem to "reflect the tariff shock"; considering the tariff agreement reached between China and the US, the global trade situation has eased, and subsequent inflationary pressures may also ease.

G7 Finance Ministers Meeting Held, Possible Collective Assessment of Trade Shocks

On Tuesday (May 20), the G7 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting was held in Canada, continuing until May 22.

Analysts expect that the finance ministers may form a collective assessment of trade shocks, provided they can reach an agreement on the communiqué.

Baidu and Bilibili Q1 Financial Reports

On Wednesday (May 21), Baidu released its Q1 financial report for the 2025 fiscal year, focusing on intelligent cloud and intelligent driving businesses.

The financial report released last quarter showed that Baidu's Q4 revenue slightly decreased by 2% year-on-year, while intelligent cloud revenue surged by 26%, with expectations for more significant returns from AI investments in 2025.

Analysts expect Baidu's Q1 revenue to be 31.43 billion yuan (down from last year), a year-on-year increase of 10%; adjusted net profit to be 5.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3%; and earnings per share to be 11.63 yuan, a year-on-year decline of 27%.

According to data disclosed at last month's Create 2024 Baidu AI Developer Conference, the number of users for Wenxin Yiyan and the daily API call volume have currently surpassed 200 million, with the number of served customers reaching 85,000, and the number of AI native applications developed using the Qianfan platform exceeding 190,000. Compared to a year ago, the training efficiency of the Wenxin large model algorithm has improved to 5.1 times the original, with a weekly effective training rate of 98.8% and inference performance improved by 105 times.

Institutions generally expect Baidu's Q1 core non-online marketing business revenue to be 6.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, with AI cloud business revenue reaching 4.5 billion yuan, achieving a 9% year-on-year growth, mainly driven by AI cloud infrastructure, AI enterprise large model platforms, and othersOn Tuesday (May 20), Bilibili announced its Q1 financial report for the fiscal year 2025.

The financial report released last quarter showed that Bilibili's net revenue for the fourth quarter was 7.734 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22%, with advertising revenue increasing by 24% year-on-year to 2.389 billion yuan. Mobile game revenue was 1.798 billion yuan, a significant increase of 79% year-on-year.

According to Guotai Junan Securities analyst Fu Tianzi, Bilibili's Q1 advertising revenue is expected to grow by 28% year-on-year to 1.63 billion yuan, accounting for 28.9% of total revenue, an increase of 4 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to continuous improvements in advertising efficiency and increased spending from game and e-commerce advertisers.

However, the gaming business may face pressure. Guotai Junan Securities expects Bilibili's game revenue this quarter to decline by 11% year-on-year to 1.01 billion yuan, accounting for 17.9% of total revenue, a decrease of 4 percentage points year-on-year, with a potential turning point expected in the second half of the year.

CATL Goes Public in Hong Kong

On Tuesday (May 20), CATL was listed and began trading on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

On May 12, CATL announced the start of its public offering, expecting to raise $4-5 billion, attracting investments from giants such as Sinopec and the Kuwait Investment Authority.

In the past four years, only Midea Group has raised more than $4 billion in the Hong Kong stock market. If CATL utilizes the greenshoe option and overallotment rights, its fundraising amount could reach $5 billion, making its Hong Kong listing the "largest IPO in the Hong Kong stock market in nearly four years," and it is also expected to become the largest IPO globally in 2025.

According to media reports citing two direct sources, CATL plans to price its Hong Kong-listed shares at HKD 263 (USD 33.70) and expand the issuance scale, with a total fundraising amount of approximately $4.6 billion.

Computex Taipei Opens, Jensen Huang Attends and Delivers a Speech

On Monday (May 19), NVIDIA founder and CEO Jensen Huang attended the Computex Taipei 2025 and delivered the first keynote speech.

The announcement from Computex Taipei indicated that Jensen Huang would deliver his first keynote speech at 11 AM on May 19, sharing the latest breakthroughs and advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and accelerated computing technology.

The organizers stated that as a leader in the field of artificial intelligence, NVIDIA is continuously pushing the limits of innovation in areas such as accelerated computing, physical AI, agent AI, and scientific discovery, turning what was once impossible into today's reality. Attendees will have the opportunity to gain insights into how NVIDIA is shaping the future with AI and engage with industry leaders to collaboratively create a better future.

This year's COMPUTEX 2025 will run until May 23, focusing on "AI Next" with three main themes: "Intelligent Computing & Robotics," "Next-Generation Technology," and "Future Mobility." The exhibition will be held at the Nangang Exhibition Center in Taipei, inviting nearly 1,400 vendors and utilizing approximately 4,800 booths, covering an exhibition area of up to 80,000 square metersAccording to reports, this year's Computex is also the first large-scale technology event held in Asia since the United States announced its new tariff policy, involving global computer and chip industry giants.

Microsoft and Google Hold Developer Conferences

On Monday (May 19), Microsoft held the Build Developer Conference, which runs until May 22.

Microsoft's annual Build Developer Conference will take place from May 19 to 22 in Seattle, Washington, USA.

At this event, Microsoft is expected to announce new AI integrations, services, and applications (including versions for Windows).

Copilot will continue to be a highlight of this conference, with the market anticipating Microsoft to announce deeper integration of its Copilot generative AI with its numerous software products (including consumer and enterprise offerings).

In November last year, the company raised the prices of several of its software products by 5%, including Windows 365, Office 365, and Microsoft 365. Analysts speculate that to justify the price increase, the company may introduce new AI features and capabilities.

According to previous media reports, Microsoft has developed a series of models called MAI, which can compete with OpenAI's own models. This tech giant is considering offering these models through APIs, potentially announcing this update at the Build conference.

Additionally, Microsoft may announce the launch of its Azure Maia 100 AI Accelerator's successor, a custom AI chip for Microsoft Azure cloud services. Last week, rumors about "Maia 2" circulated on social media; according to semiconductor analyst Ray Wang, chip manufacturer Marvell has signed a contract to produce this chip.

On Tuesday (May 20), Google held its annual I/O Developer Conference.

Google will host the 2025 Google I/O Developer Conference at the Shoreline Amphitheatre in Mountain View, California, from May 20 to 21.

At that time, Google will announce the progress of various software products and preview the latest features. According to publicly disclosed information, Google is expected to unveil a wealth of news regarding Android, Chrome, Google Search, YouTube, and the AI chatbot Gemini, with the main highlight being a systematic demonstration and multi-platform layout of Gemini 2.5.

Google stated that this conference will focus on the new features of the Android 16 system and the latest developments in its ecosystem. This adjustment continues Google's strategic shift in recent years—since last year's I/O conference, which restructured the search function to be AI-centric and deeply integrated Gemini into Android phones and document services.

Google also confirmed that Android-related updates will still occupy an important position in the I/O keynote and technical sub-sessions, including the brand-new UX design language Material 3 Expressive, the Android XR extended reality system, and the in-car Gemini application

Other Important Data, Meetings, and Events

• On Friday (May 23), Japan will release the April CPI.

Data released last month showed that due to rising raw material prices affecting food prices, Japan's core CPI in March rose 3.2% year-on-year to 110.2, marking the 43rd consecutive month of increase.

The Japanese government's subsidies on electricity and gas have somewhat suppressed the rise in energy-related prices in March, while food prices continue to climb.

Data for the fiscal year 2024 (April 2024 to March 2025) showed that the core CPI for fiscal year 2024 increased by 2.7% to 108.7 compared to the previous fiscal year, marking the fourth consecutive fiscal year of increase, but the growth rate has narrowed compared to the 2.8% in fiscal year 2023.

After the recent monetary policy meeting of the Bank of Japan, Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that due to tariff measures and slowing economic growth, inflation and wage growth are expected to slow down. Currently, although the overall consumer inflation rate has exceeded 3%, core inflation remains below 2%, and the timeline for achieving the 2% target is expected to be delayed.

• On Monday (May 19), a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustments will begin.

At 24:00 on Monday, the retail price limit for domestic refined oil will enter a new adjustment period.

The latest data from institutions tracking international crude oil price changes predicts that the adjustment range for this round of refined oil retail prices far exceeds the price adjustment red line of 50 yuan/ton, therefore the retail price limit for this round of refined oil may be lowered.

Since the beginning of this year, domestic oil prices have undergone nine adjustments, with "three increases, four decreases, and two pauses." After the adjustment, the domestic prices of gasoline and diesel will have decreased by 425 yuan/ton and 410 yuan/ton, respectively, compared to the end of last year.

• On Monday (May 19), Huawei held a launch event for the nova 14 series and HarmonyOS computers.

On May 13, Huawei's terminal Weibo announced that the nova 14 series and HarmonyOS computer launch event would take place on May 19 at 14:30.

The promotional poster indicated that at 14:00 on May 19, there will first be a launch of HarmonyOS smart home and smart glasses products.

It is understood that at last week's HarmonyOS computer technology and ecosystem communication meeting, the HarmonyOS computer made its debut, marking the official establishment of HarmonyOS as a full-scenario intelligent operating system, achieving full-scenario interconnectivity across smartphones, tablets, computers, cars, and smart screens.

• NVIDIA plans to release the GeForce RTX 5060 (non-Ti) graphics card on Monday (May 19).

According to tech media reports, NVIDIA plans to launch the new generation GeForce RTX 5060 graphics card (non-Ti version) on May 19.

It is reported that the RTX 5060 graphics card will be equipped with the GB206 GPU, containing 3,840 CUDA cores, and is positioned as an entry-level product in the RTX 50 series. Compared to the previous generation RTX 4060, although the memory capacity remains at 8GB and the memory bus width stays at 128-bit, the core count has increased by 25%, and the memory bandwidth has improved by 65%Performance is expected to further improve.

Previous reports also mentioned that the pricing of the RTX 5060 is expected to remain consistent with the release of the RTX 4060, around 2499 yuan