Capital rotation is evident, with gold and Bitcoin showing a "zero-sum game."

Wallstreetcn
2025.05.15 14:16
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JPMorgan Chase pointed out that as "de-dollarization transactions" have stalled, gold ETFs have seen outflows over the past three weeks, while Bitcoin and cryptocurrency ETFs have attracted inflows during the same period. Additionally, since April 22, gold prices have fallen nearly 8% after reaching a peak of $3,500, while Bitcoin prices have risen 18% during the same time. JPMorgan Chase believes that this "zero-sum game" will continue for the remainder of the year, and specific catalysts for cryptocurrencies will create more upward space for Bitcoin in the second half of the year

JPMorgan Chase pointed out that as "de-dollarization transactions" have stalled, there is a "zero-sum game" situation between gold and Bitcoin. Since reaching a peak of $3,500 on April 22, gold prices have fallen nearly 8%, while Bitcoin prices have risen 18% during the same period.

This contrast is also reflected in the flow of funds. According to news from the Chasing Wind trading desk, JPMorgan Chase's latest report indicates that in the past three weeks, gold ETFs have seen outflows, while Bitcoin and cryptocurrency ETFs have attracted inflows.

JPMorgan Chase expects that the "zero-sum game" between gold and Bitcoin will continue for the remainder of this year, leaning towards the belief that specific catalysts for cryptocurrencies will create more upward space for Bitcoin in the second half of the year. The report noted that in addition to the support from funds flowing out of gold, Bitcoin also benefits from several cryptocurrency-specific catalysts, including companies like MicroStrategy increasing their holdings and New Hampshire passing legislation allowing state finances to invest in Bitcoin.

A Major Reversal in Safe-Haven Assets

The report pointed out that in the fourth quarter of 2024, gold prices and Bitcoin prices showed a synchronized upward trend, especially during and after the U.S. elections, as market concerns about dollar depreciation benefited both assets. However, entering 2025, this "de-dollarization" transaction has clearly stalled, transforming into a "zero-sum game" relationship between gold prices and Bitcoin.

The flow of funds reflects three main characteristics:

  • From the perspective of the flow of funds in physical gold and spot Bitcoin/cryptocurrency ETFs, gold has seen outflows in the past three weeks.

  • During the same period, Bitcoin/cryptocurrency ETFs recorded inflows.

  • Futures positions data show that gold futures positions continue to decline, while Bitcoin futures have seen a significant increase.

The rotation of funds is closely related to changes in the market environment. JPMorgan Chase pointed out that the tariff tensions during mid-February to mid-April this year drove a strong rise in gold, while Bitcoin performed weakly along with risk assets. However, in the past three weeks, as market risk appetite improved, this trend has completely reversed.

This also indicates that in specific market environments, investors will rotate their allocations between these two types of safe-haven assets:

  • During tariff tensions: gold rises, Bitcoin falls.
  • During risk appetite improvement: gold corrects, Bitcoin rises.

JPMorgan Chase expects the zero-sum game relationship between gold and Bitcoin to continue for the remainder of 2025, but due to the unique catalysts of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin may have greater upside potential than gold in the second half of the year

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