Make Trump Happy! Can the Middle Eastern Tycoons Really Come Up with "Trillions" at Any Time?

Trump's Middle East trip is filled with dazzling numbers, with Saudi Arabia and Qatar taking turns to promise investments in the U.S. amounting to trillions of dollars. However, whether these astronomical investment commitments can ultimately be fulfilled is worth pondering.

Trump's Middle East trip lasted four days, with the first stop in Saudi Arabia. According to a White House press release, Saudi Crown Prince Salman initially promised to add $600 billion in investments to the U.S. over four years, but Trump claimed this figure could reach $1 trillion. The Crown Prince also stated that Saudi Arabia would strive to push the investment in the U.S. to $1 trillion.

At the Saudi-U.S. investment summit, Trump proudly stated, "Look at those previous presidents; sometimes they couldn't pull in a trillion dollars for years, and we basically did it in two months."

In Qatar, Trump received an even bigger package. The White House announcement stated that the agreements Trump signed in Qatar aim to facilitate an "economic exchange" valued at at least $1.2 trillion, including a $200 billion deal for Qatar Airways to purchase 160 commercial aircraft from Boeing.

However, are these numbers real cash or just sensational headlines to please Trump?

Upon verifying the details, it becomes clear that there is a significant gap between the economic and fiscal capabilities of the Gulf countries and these promised huge numbers. Saudi Arabia's GDP is just slightly above $1 trillion, while Qatar's GDP is only over $200 billion, and fluctuations in oil prices could further threaten the realization of these commitments.

The Economic Reality Behind the Pricey Promises

Trump's Middle East trip has seemingly turned into a numbers game, with the promised amounts becoming increasingly astonishing as the visit progresses, but there are evident economic contradictions behind these figures.

Public data shows that Saudi Arabia's GDP is just slightly above $1 trillion, making its economy even smaller than that of the Netherlands. In terms of per capita income, Saudi Arabia is comparable to Portugal. The $1 trillion investment claimed by Trump is almost equivalent to Saudi Arabia's entire GDP, raising questions about the feasibility of this figure.

Qatar's GDP is even lower at just over $200 billion, making the "1.2 trillion dollars" figure seem even more unrealistic.

Moreover, fluctuations in oil prices are eroding the fiscal foundations of these countries.

The International Monetary Fund estimates that Saudi Arabia needs an oil price of $96 per barrel to maintain fiscal balance. This means that only if oil prices remain at this level can Saudi Arabia sustain its comprehensive welfare system and control political discontent However, the current oil price is around $60, which puts Saudi Arabia in a situation of fiscal strain and the need to implement austerity measures. If oil prices fall to $50 or lower, Saudi Arabia will face a slow crisis that ultimately poses a survival threat to its economic model.

What do the Gulf countries want?

Under Trump's transactional foreign policy, these Gulf countries have many chips to offer, and they each have clear objectives.

For Saudi Arabia, their primary pursuit is "security, security, and security." Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries are seeking a security commitment from the U.S. for Gulf stability. Last year, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia nearly finalized a landmark defense and trade agreement, but negotiations stalled as Saudi Arabia insisted that Israel should commit to paving the way for Palestinian statehood.

Additionally, Saudi Arabia is seeking U.S. cooperation in developing a civilian nuclear program, but its insistence on domestic uranium enrichment has raised concerns in the U.S. and Israel about nuclear weapons proliferation. Support from the White House for Saudi nuclear plans could allow U.S. companies to win lucrative contracts.

The UAE views investment as a core strategy to deepen its relationship with the U.S. As one of the richest countries in the world on a per capita basis, the UAE has committed to investing hundreds of billions of dollars in the U.S. In March of this year, the UAE announced a $1.4 trillion investment plan over 10 years, focusing on artificial intelligence, semiconductors, manufacturing, and energy.

Anwar Gargash, diplomatic advisor to the UAE president, stated, "The UAE sees a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to make significant contributions in the fields of artificial intelligence and advanced technology." However, achieving the goal of becoming a global leader in artificial intelligence by 2031 is difficult without support from U.S. advanced microchips.

Qatar has the most formal security cooperation relationship with the U.S., hosting the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East. As a country skilled in "mediation diplomacy," Qatar has actively intervened in various hotspots in recent years, from the Gaza conflict to peace negotiations in Afghanistan, aiming to enhance its geopolitical value in Washington as a "key mediator."

Hassan Alhassan from the International Institute for Strategic Studies stated, "Gulf countries view mediation as a tool for gaining influence and prestige, and they have successfully leveraged this role to become indispensable partners in Trump's political agenda."