Cohen, the 'Jordan of Hedge Funds': The rapid rebound of the U.S. stock market in April is extraordinary, and even if the market subsequently drops by 10-15%, it is not a disaster
Cohen warned that the likelihood of a U.S. economic recession has risen to about 45%, and economic growth is expected to slow to 1.5% or lower next year. However, due to inflationary pressures that may arise from tariff policies, he expects the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates immediately
Wall Street hedge fund moguls warn that after a rapid rebound, U.S. stocks may face a 10-15% decline risk, with the probability of a U.S. economic recession rising to 45%, and investors need to be prepared.
According to Bloomberg, Steve Cohen, founder of Point72 Asset Management and known as the "Jordan of the hedge fund world," recently stated at the Sohn Investment Conference in New York that the rapid drop and rebound of the stock market in April is very unusual in speed. He mentioned that he is closely watching the market's reaction after the next batch of U.S. economic data is released:
I want to see how the market reacts, which will tell us whether the current valuations are reasonable.
Cohen also predicted that even if the market drops 10-15% afterwards, it would not be a disaster, and he proposed another possibility that the U.S. stock market may maintain a range-bound fluctuation for a period of time:
The market doesn't have to go up every year... the market can trade sideways, which is completely normal.
Additionally, regarding the outlook for the U.S. economy, Cohen warned that the likelihood of a U.S. recession has risen to about 45%:
We are not in a recession yet, but economic growth is significantly slowing down.
More concerningly, Cohen predicts that U.S. economic growth will slow to 1.5% or lower next year, describing this level as "acceptable, but not outstanding," and this expectation is significantly below the average level in recent years.
Furthermore, Cohen stated that due to inflationary pressures potentially triggered by tariff policies, he expects the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates immediately, which sharply contrasts with the market's previous expectations of a possible quick rate cut by the Federal Reserve
