Breakfast | Tech stocks shine, NVIDIA and Tesla rise over 4%

Market Overview

The US stock market shows signs of fatigue, awaiting Powell's speech. The S&P 500 has achieved three consecutive days of gains. The Dow Jones has declined for two consecutive days. Tech stocks are strong, with NVIDIA rising nearly 4%, Tesla and AMD closing up over 4%, and Super Micro Computer increasing nearly 16%; after the earnings report, Cisco briefly rose nearly 4% in after-hours trading. The China concept index rebounded over 1%, with Tencent rising over 3% after its earnings report, while JD.com fell more than 4%.

US Treasury yields hit a one-month high. The dollar has declined for two consecutive days, with the yen rising over 1% and the won nearly 2% during the session, before the dollar rebounded from a low, showing a V-shape. The offshore yuan fell over 200 points during the session, breaching 7.21.

Crude oil has dropped from a three-week high, falling over 1% during the session. Gold has retreated to a one-month low, declining over 2% during the session.

During the Asian session, A-shares collectively closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 3,400 points. The large financial sector and Hong Kong transport surged, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 2%, tech stocks strengthened, and government bonds broadly fell.

Macroeconomic Information

China-US Tariffs

Starting from May 14 at 12:01 PM, China has begun implementing tariff adjustment measures on imported goods originating from the United States. The tariff rates of 125% and 24% have been suspended for 90 days, marking the beginning of tariff adjustments against the US.

The US has adjusted tariffs on China: it has canceled the 91% tariff increase and reduced or eliminated tariffs on small packages. According to Xinhua News Agency, the US has canceled a total of 91% tariffs imposed on Chinese goods (including those from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and the Macao Special Administrative Region) based on Executive Orders No. 14259 and No. 14266 issued on April 8 and April 9, 2025, respectively. It has also modified the 34% reciprocal tariff measures imposed on Chinese goods (including those from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and the Macao Special Administrative Region) based on Executive Order No. 14257 issued on April 2, 2025, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days, retaining the remaining 10% tariff.

Market Focus Shifts to US Tax Reduction Bill

House Republican leaders plan to submit the bill for a full vote in the House of Representatives before Memorial Day, followed by submission to the Senate for review. Trump hopes to sign it into law before July 4. According to assessments, this bill will bring a $3.7 trillion deficit to the US Treasury over the next ten years, including extending the 2017 tax reduction policy, significantly increasing border security spending, and cutting several social welfare programs, although there are still disagreements among Republican lawmakers on the details.

The Logic Behind the Surge: Will the US Experience a Triple Kill in Stocks, Bonds, and Currency Again This Summer?

Citi points out that the narrative logic of US assets will shift from tariff issues to fiscal crises. With the reduction in DOGE spending and declining tariff revenues, the US fiscal budget process may again trigger a surge in term premiums, leading to a "triple kill" scenario of falling US stocks, rising Treasury yields, and a weakening dollar.

What is the Market Saying? While the Nasdaq Soars, US Treasury Yields Approach Highs, and the Dollar Falls

Analysts believe that the rebound in US stocks may just be a superficial celebration, as the abnormal rise in Treasury yields and the divergence from the dollar's trend point to structural fiscal issues in the US, or suggest deeper risks of a dollar collapse. With the US government expected to issue over $2 trillion in Treasury bonds, a lack of buyers may force the Federal Reserve to restart balance sheet expansion Trade tensions ease, will this year's "big losers" in the US stock market become "big winners"?

Citigroup and JP Morgan are optimistic about the performance of underperforming sectors in the US stock market this year, including small-cap stocks, technology hardware, and home builders. They believe that with the easing of trade tensions, along with the effects of catch-up and short squeeze, these sectors will see a rebound in the short term.

Company Information

Tesla rises 4% again, board is studying a new compensation agreement for Musk

Tesla's board has formed a special committee to explore a new compensation agreement for CEO Elon Musk, which may offer him a new set of stock options. The committee consists of board chairman Robyn Denholm and independent director Catherine Wilson-Thompson. If Musk fails to restore his $56 billion compensation from 2018 in the ongoing court appeal, the committee will also consider other forms of compensation. Tesla has not commented on the matter.

Boeing briefly rises over 3% to reach a 15-month high, secures largest single order in history

Trump secured a $1.2 trillion "economic exchange" commitment from Qatar. The White House stated that Trump announced a total economic deal exceeding $243.5 billion between the US and Qatar, including a $96 billion order from Qatar Airways, which will purchase up to 210 Boeing wide-body aircraft powered by GE aviation engines, as well as agreements involving energy infrastructure, advanced engineering, quantum technology, and military sales agreements related to MQ-9B drones; the two countries signed a defense cooperation intention containing over $38 billion in potential investments.

UnitedHealth under criminal investigation for alleged Medicare fraud, drops 7% after hours

The Wall Street Journal reported that the US Department of Justice is investigating UnitedHealth Group for potential criminal fraud in its Medicare Advantage business, citing informed sources.

Tencent ADR rises 3.5%, Q1 revenue increases 13% year-on-year

Tencent's Q1 revenue reached RMB 180.022 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13%, with adjusted net profit rising 11% year-on-year. The revenue from "Honor of Kings" and "Crossfire Mobile" reached new highs.

Pony Ma stated that AI capabilities have made substantial contributions to performance advertising and evergreen games, and increased investment in new AI opportunities such as Yuanbao applications and AI within WeChat; the Yuanbao AI integrated with WeChat is in a very early stage, with increasing user interactions with the AI assistant; the strong performance of the gaming business is partly due to AI empowering multiplayer competitive games. Liu Chiping mentioned that GPUs are prioritized for immediate return-generating scenarios such as advertising, using software optimization and model customization to meet the GPU demand for inference.

Super Micro Computer shares surge again, signs $20 billion AI agreement with Saudi data center DataVolt

Saudi Arabia's data center company DataVolt has signed a multi-year cooperation agreement with Super Micro Computer, a once-struggling US AI server and high-performance computing platform manufacturer. On Wednesday, Super Micro's stock surged again, rising about 20% during the day and closing up 15.7% This year's largest global IPO! Reports indicate that CATL will list at the upper issue price of HKD 263, with institutional subscriptions oversubscribed by 30 times

As of May 14, CATL has received institutional orders exceeding USD 50 billion, equivalent to approximately HKD 390.2 billion. Excluding cornerstone subscriptions, it has been oversubscribed by 30 times. It is estimated that CATL's fundraising amount for its Hong Kong listing could expand to HKD 41 billion (USD 5.26 billion), making it the largest IPO in Hong Kong since Kuaishou's listing in 2021.

Foxconn's Q1 sales increased by 24% year-on-year, net profit far exceeds expectations

Foxconn's Q1 net profit of NT$ 42.11 billion exceeded expectations, benefiting from strong demand for AI servers and other products, as well as clients accelerating orders to avoid potential U.S. tariffs. Although sales are expected to continue growing in 2025, the company anticipates that the growth rate will be lower than previously forecasted in March of this year.

DeepSeek usage drops by 50%, Kuaishou rises, OpenAI surges

Poe's report on AI model usage trends for Spring 2025 shows that DeepSeek R1's usage rate fell from a peak of 7% in February to 3% by the end of April, a decline of over 50%. OpenAI's usage surged due to the new Ghibli-style text-to-image features added in GPT-4o. Kuaishou's Kling series has rapidly risen in the text-to-video field, capturing a 21% market share within three weeks.

Bridgewater reduces holdings in Google, NVIDIA, Meta, etc.

However, it significantly increased its gold purchases, initiated a position in JD.com, and increased holdings in Alibaba and Baidu. In Q1, Bridgewater bought over USD 300 million in gold ETFs, over USD 100 million in JD.com, and invested in Chubb Insurance, Goldman Sachs, etc. It increased holdings in Alibaba, Baidu, Booking, etc. It completely exited positions in ON Semiconductor, Moderna, Lyft, Chewy, etc. It reduced holdings in SPDR S&P 500 ETF and also reduced positions in Google's parent company Alphabet, NVIDIA, AppLovin, Meta, etc