Strategists led by Jay Barry at JPMorgan Chase have raised their forecast for the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at the end of 2025 to 4.35%, up from a previous estimate of 4%. 
They have also raised their year-end forecast for the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield to 3.5%, up from a previous estimate of 3%. 
The easing of tariff frictions initiated by President Trump is favorable for U.S. economic growth, and the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts. 
Previously, economists at JPMorgan Chase had pushed back their expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts from September to December

JPMorgan Chase has raised its forecast for the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at the end of 2025 to 4.35%, and the forecast for the 2-year Treasury yield has been raised to 3.5%. Due to the easing of tariff frictions under U.S. President Trump, it is expected to benefit the growth rate of the U.S. economy, which may lead the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts, with the expected timing of rate cuts pushed back from September to December

JPMorgan Chase: Raises year-end U.S. Treasury yield forecast