CITIC Securities: The phased easing of China-U.S. tariffs, focusing on investment opportunities in machinery and equipment exports

According to Zhitong Finance APP, Guotai Junan released a research report stating that high-level economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States have reached a phased tariff easing plan. The reduction of tariffs directly benefits consumer electronics export companies, while the technology chain (AI/robotics) benefits from the restructuring of the global supply chain. Engineering machinery relies on overseas production capacity to hedge risks and benefits from the recovery of emerging markets; long-term competition focuses on brand barriers, technological independence, and global supply chain efficiency. Leading companies with hard technology iteration and full-chain layout capabilities may become core winners.

Guotai Junan's main points are as follows:

Technology Chain

The Sino-U.S. technological competition is accelerating towards AI and humanoid robots, with the ability to restructure the global supply chain and technological independence becoming key to winning competition. The firm believes that the technological competition between China and the U.S. is rapidly shifting from semiconductors to artificial intelligence and humanoid robots, with both countries expected to increase investment in AI and robotics research and development to compete for the next generation of technological high ground. Leading overseas companies represented by Tesla need to have global management capabilities, efficient supply chain integration, and core technological barriers in their supporting supply chains. Domestic core component manufacturers are expected to penetrate the global high-end industrial chain; at the same time, domestic companies such as Huawei, ByteDance, Xiaomi/XPeng, etc., are promoting the upgrade of domestic humanoid robots from "key component breakthroughs" to "system-level solutions" through technological collaboration and ecosystem construction. Future competition will revolve around "AI large models + motion control algorithms + hardware independence," and companies with technological iteration capabilities and global supply chain layouts may become core winners in the context of normalized trade frictions. Related targets: SHUANGHUAN COMPANY, Sanhua, Tuopu Group, etc.

Engineering Machinery

Global layout hedges tariff risks, and the recovery of emerging markets drives the accelerated growth of leading companies. Currently, major engineering machinery manufacturers have limited direct exposure to the U.S., effectively dispersing tariff pressure by relying on overseas production capacities in Southeast Asia, South America, etc. In the medium to long term, the recovery of infrastructure demand in emerging markets such as Indonesia and Brazil, combined with the "technological upgrades + localized services" capabilities of domestic leaders, is expected to bring structural improvements to developing country markets. Companies with well-established overseas layouts will be the first to enter the performance harvest period, and the logic of globalization substitution continues to strengthen. Related targets: SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, Zhejiang Dingli.

Export Consumer Chain

Tariff reduction releases export momentum, directly benefiting export-oriented consumer companies. In the long run, brand and channel construction builds a company's moat, and resource allocation capabilities determine global competitiveness. The recent adjustment of tariffs between China and the U.S. injects short-term benefits into export companies. In the tariff relief window, outward-oriented companies are expected to enhance their "export grabbing" momentum, with order recovery and valuation uplift anticipated. In the long run, brand and channel construction builds a company's moat, and resource allocation capabilities determine global competitiveness. The essence of global competition is a systematic comparison of resource allocation efficiency. Although the phased tariff easing creates a tactical adjustment window for export companies, long-term success still relies on the accumulation of brand value and channel ecological barriers. In the future, in the context of normalized trade frictions, simple cost advantages will be difficult to resist technological blockades and tariff risks. Only by occupying brand mindshare to strengthen pricing power and buffering geopolitical fluctuations with channel resilience can sustainable growth be achieved. Related targets: Juxing Technology, Honghua Digital Technology, Yindu Co., Ltd., Taotao Automotive, etc Risk Warning: Risks of macroeconomic fluctuations and repeated trade frictions