Crude oil futures rise for four consecutive days! The temporary suspension of tariffs between China and the U.S. boosts demand expectations, with WTI and Brent both soaring

According to Zhitong Finance APP, the crude oil market continued its strong performance on Tuesday, with New York and London crude oil futures rising for the fourth consecutive trading day. Market sentiment significantly improved, mainly benefiting from breakthrough progress in China-U.S. trade negotiations—both sides agreed to suspend the imposition of new tariffs for 90 days, providing a valuable window for the world's two largest economies to resolve trade disputes. This news effectively alleviated market concerns about weak energy demand, coinciding with OPEC+ gradually increasing production, which improved supply-demand balance expectations and injected confidence into oil prices.

Stimulated by positive factors, WTI crude oil futures rose 2.8% on Tuesday to $63.67 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures increased by 2.6% to $66.63 per barrel, both recording the largest four-day gains since October last year. The two benchmark contracts surged 4% in a single day following the announcement of the tariff suspension, driving the three major U.S. stock indices and the dollar index to strengthen simultaneously.

Multiple positive factors resonated: the latest data from the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the consumer price index (CPI) in April narrowed its year-on-year increase to 2.3%, hitting a four-year low. Easing inflation pressures prompted institutions like JP Morgan and Barclays to lower their recession expectations for the U.S. economy, reigniting speculation about the timing of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Analysts pointed out that the easing of trade disputes combined with slowing inflation has created room for adjustments in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

Support signals also emerged from the geopolitical front. The Trump administration expressed a tough stance towards Iran, stating that it would impose "maximum pressure" if a new nuclear agreement could not be reached, raising market concerns about the stability of Middle Eastern supply. Meanwhile, the Republican Party in the U.S. Congress proposed a budget plan to allocate $1.3 billion to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, further boosting bullish sentiment.

Positive signals appeared on the demand side. A report from JP Morgan indicated that although there is uncertainty regarding crude oil demand prospects, the refined oil market is performing strongly: since international oil prices peaked on January 15, crude oil prices have retreated by 22%, but gasoline, diesel, and other refined oil prices and refining profit margins have remained stable. The institution emphasized that the continuous decline in refining capacity in the U.S. and Europe has led to tighter gasoline and diesel supply, and equipment maintenance or unexpected outages could trigger significant price fluctuations.

The secondary market reacted enthusiastically, with the refining sector showing widespread gains. PBF Energy (PBF.US) surged 10.1% to lead the way, Delek US (DK.US) climbed 6.1%, Phillips 66 (PSX.US) and CVR Energy (CVI.US) rose by 5.8% and 4.2%, respectively, while HF Sinclair (DINO.US), Valero Energy (VLO.US), and Marathon Oil (MPC.US) all saw increases of over 3%. In contrast, NYMEX natural gas futures performed flat, closing unchanged at $3.647 per million British thermal units