After the reduction of tariffs between China and the United States, the recovery of the shipping chain and structural opportunities

According to Zhitong Finance APP, on May 12, China and the United States announced a significant reduction in tariffs, with the average tariff on Chinese goods dropping from 145% to 30%, and China simultaneously canceling equivalent retaliatory tariffs. This unexpected policy adjustment not only injects stability into Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations but also stirs waves in the capital market. This article combines UBS's latest research and market dynamics, focusing on the strategies for the Chinese stock market after the tariff reduction, with an emphasis on analyzing the recovery logic and investment opportunities in the Sino-U.S. shipping chain.

I. The "Threefold Dividend" of Tariff Reduction and Market Response

1. Emotional Recovery and Capital Inflow

The tariff reduction far exceeded market expectations (which previously anticipated a drop to 50-60%), directly boosting global risk appetite. The Hong Kong stock market reacted first, with the Hang Seng Index rising 3% on the day, marking the largest single-day increase since early March. Leading companies in the export chain, such as Sunny Optical Technology (02382) and Techtronic Industries (00669), surged by 14.8% and 6.7%, respectively. The A-share market also showed positive signals, with tariff-sensitive sectors like consumer electronics and semiconductors experiencing significant increases, and northbound capital seeing a net inflow of over 10 billion yuan in a single day.

2. Reconstruction of Export Chain Costs

For every 1 percentage point reduction in tariffs, the average export cost for enterprises decreases by 0.5%-0.8%. Taking the U.S. market as an example, the tax rate dropping from 145% to 30% effectively removes the "price shackles" on Chinese export goods, with profit margins in some industries expected to increase by 5%-8%. Specifically:

Technology and High-end Manufacturing: Optical modules, semiconductor equipment, and consumer electronics directly benefit. Companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Newray are expected to see stock price increases of over 10% in the short term due to anticipated growth in North American orders.

New Energy Vehicles and Energy Storage: If the U.S. cancels the 127.5% tariff on Chinese new energy vehicles, the export competitiveness of CATL (03750) and BYD (01211) will significantly enhance, coupled with a decrease in costs across the energy storage and photovoltaic industry chains, providing clear valuation recovery potential for related stocks.

Cross-border E-commerce and Logistics: Companies like Huamao Logistics are expected to see profit forecasts raised due to improved customs efficiency and a rebound in trade volume.

3. Supply Chain and Valuation Recovery

The reduction in tariffs alleviates cost pressures in manufacturing, prompting companies to optimize their supply chain layouts. The Hang Seng Tech ETF has cumulatively risen 15% over the past 21 trading days, reflecting market recognition of the supply chain recovery logic. At the same time, the attractiveness of the undervalued Hong Kong stock market has increased, and with expectations of foreign capital inflow, southbound funds saw a net purchase of Hong Kong tech stocks amounting to 20 billion Hong Kong dollars in a single day.

II. Sino-U.S. Shipping Chain: An Underestimated Recovery Opportunity

1. Current Shipping Situation: The Truth Behind Expectations

Previously, the market was concerned that tariff escalations would lead to a cliff-like drop in Sino-U.S. shipping volumes, but UBS's shipping tracking data shows that approximately 6-8 ships depart from China to the U.S. daily, consistent with historical levels. Although there was a slight slowdown in mid-April due to adjustments after the Spring Festival, shipping capacity on the China-U.S. route rebounded from 310,000 TEU to 390,000 TEU in the second week of May, an increase of 25.8%. The Port of Los Angeles predicts that the number of ships arriving in the coming weeks will increase, further validating the stability of shipping activities 2. The Logic of Freight Rates and Capacity Game

In the short term, the reduction of tariffs has triggered a surge in shipping demand, combined with the approach of the peak season, the spot freight rates on the West Coast of the United States have risen from $2550/FEU at the end of April to over $3500/FEU. Shipping companies are simultaneously adjusting their capacity, with the number of empty sailings on the West Coast in May increasing by 68% year-on-year, while capacity has decreased by 9.8% to address potential supply-demand imbalances. In the medium to long term, if tariff negotiations continue to progress, the shipping market is expected to shift from "negative feedback" to "positive feedback," forming a virtuous cycle of demand recovery and capacity optimization.

3. Investment Targets and Risk Alerts

Beneficiary sectors: Port shipping (Ningbo Marine, COSCO Shipping Holdings), logistics (China Merchants Jinling), container manufacturing (China International Marine Containers).

Risk factors: After the 90-day exemption period, tariffs may fluctuate, and there is a need to be cautious of the risk of a pullback if the actual trade data in July-August falls short of expectations.

III. Structural Opportunities and Defensive Strategies

1. Technological Breakthroughs and Export Chain Resonance

The reduction of tariffs strengthens the logic of the technology mainline. Companies in the supply chains of Apple, NVIDIA, and Tesla (such as Luxshare Precision) have significant short-term elasticity due to improved profit expectations. At the same time, domestic substitution remains a long-term theme, with a focus on semiconductor equipment (North Huachuang) and industrial mother machines.

2. Consumption Recovery and Defensive Allocation

The reduction of tariffs lowers the prices of imported goods, benefiting high-end consumption (luxury goods, cosmetics) and the automotive parts sector. Domestic leaders in liquor and home appliances may benefit from a recovery in consumption. Additionally, high-dividend assets (Yangtze Power, China Shenhua) can hedge against market volatility and provide a safety margin in a deflationary environment.

3. Federal Reserve Policy and Global Capital Flows

Expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are rising, which may alleviate pressure on the RMB exchange rate and attract foreign capital back to A-shares. Historical data shows that in the early stages of interest rate cuts, liquidity-sensitive sectors such as non-ferrous metals and brokerages perform prominently. However, it is important to note that if tariff negotiations encounter obstacles in July, the market may react in advance to policy uncertainties, necessitating dynamic adjustments to the portfolio structure.

IV. Risks and Long-term Challenges

Policy Uncertainty: After the 90-day exemption period, the potential restoration of 24% of suspended tariffs and uncertainties regarding fentanyl-related tariffs remain.

Global Supply Chain Restructuring: The long-term trend of "decoupling" between China and the U.S. persists, with core issues such as technological blockades not fundamentally resolved, making technological self-sufficiency a necessary option.

Domestic Economic Pressure: China is experiencing ongoing deflation, with the CPI in April down 0.1% year-on-year and the PPI down 2.7% year-on-year, necessitating attention to the impact of weak consumption on corporate profits.

The reduction of tariffs between China and the U.S. opens up a dual mainline market for the Chinese stock market, focusing on "export recovery + technological breakthroughs." In the short term, attention should be on directly benefiting sectors such as shipping chains, consumer electronics, and new energy, while in the medium to long term, it is essential to grasp the trends of technological self-sufficiency and global capital rebalancing. Investors should closely monitor the progress of tariff negotiations in July, the Federal Reserve's policy direction, and domestic economic data, while seizing opportunities and effectively hedging risks. The shipping chain, as the "lifeline" connecting China and U.S. economic and trade relations, will be a key variable in verifying market expectations regarding its recovery elasticity and sustainability, warranting significant attention