Morgan Stanley's assessment of international macroeconomics: In a global portfolio, US stocks should account for 56%-65%, and the dollar is expected to continue weakening

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Morgan Stanley recently released a global macro strategy research report, analyzing U.S. asset investment, currency trends, various investment strategies, and macroeconomic outlooks. From the perspective of indicators such as the U.S. share of global GDP, market capitalization, and corporate profit share, the reasonable allocation weight of U.S. stocks in global investment portfolios is approximately 56-65%.

The research points out that whether foreign investors are "overweight" in U.S. assets cannot be simply judged and requires appropriate benchmark analysis, rather than relying solely on price trends. Common benchmarks include MSCI World, MSCI ACWI, etc., but defining appropriate weights poses challenges due to the diverse factors considered by investors, and the performance of U.S. assets will affect benchmark weights.

Some countries' investors hold a higher proportion of U.S. stocks than this range, but overall, their exposure to overseas assets is relatively low, which is referred to as "home bias." The phenomenon of "home bias" significantly affects the assessment of the degree of "overweighting the U.S." For example, investors in countries like Canada have a low overall proportion of foreign stock investments, and even if there is a certain tilt towards U.S. stocks, their absolute investment scale may still be within a reasonable range. Although "home bias" complicates the analysis, the overall direction of investment conclusions has not changed from a marginal flow perspective.

In the currency market, the U.S. dollar is expected to continue weakening. The dollar faces downward pressure due to factors such as yield differentials, changes in foreign investors' hedging ratios for U.S. assets, and uncertainty in U.S. policies.

Among these, yield differentials and negative policy premiums are important influencing factors. As the yield differentials between the U.S. and other countries change, along with the impact of policy premiums on market confidence, the attractiveness of the dollar in the international currency market declines. At the same time, adjustments in foreign investors' hedging ratios for U.S. assets will also impact the dollar. If investors increase their hedging ratios due to concerns about the dollar's outlook, it will increase the selling pressure on the dollar.

Among G10 currencies, different currencies perform variably. The euro and yen are favored due to their respective economic and policy factors, while the pound and Swiss franc are neutral. The Canadian dollar is expected to decline due to the slowdown in the U.S. economy, and the Australian dollar is influenced by industrial metal prices and the weakening dollar. The New Zealand dollar shows some recovery in the domestic economy and is neutral, with the AUD/NZD exchange rate expected to fluctuate within a specific range. Additionally, the Swedish krona and Norwegian krone are neutral but face certain risks due to domestic economic data and international commodity prices.

In terms of investment strategy, the interest rate strategy suggests maintaining a steepening position in the yield curve, such as going long on the 3s30s U.S. Treasury yield spread, and the 1y1y and 5y5y SOFR spreads, while being cautious of risks such as the cancellation of Trump tariffs and persistent inflation.

In the currency foreign exchange strategy, the bank suggests going long on the euro against the dollar, with risks related to unexpected dovish adjustments in the European Central Bank's monetary policy; going short on the Canadian dollar against the Swiss franc requires attention to Canadian policy changes and adjustments in investors' hedging ratios.

Additionally, the report also presents views on U.S. Treasury issuance strategies, Eurozone interest rate strategies, and emerging market fixed income investments, suggesting that if the U.S. Treasury reduces coupon supply, the proportion of Treasuries may approach 30% by 2027; Greek short-term government bonds are relatively cheap and can be longed against Italian government bonds; emerging market fixed income investors prefer non-dollar assets, and a weakening dollar will allow emerging market local assets to continue outperforming