CICC: Maintain Li Auto-W outperform industry rating, target price HKD 155

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) released a research report stating that it maintains a rating of outperform for Li Auto (02015, LI.US) and keeps its profit forecast for 2025/26 under Non-GAAP standards. Currently, Hong Kong and US stocks correspond to 21/17x 25E P/E, maintaining target prices of HKD 155/USD 40, corresponding to 31/26x 25E P/E, with an upside potential of 49%/50%. Recently, the company held a launch event for the L series smart refresh version and began nationwide deliveries.

CICC's main viewpoints are as follows:

The launch of the L series smart refresh version is expected to stabilize monthly sales of the L series.

This refresh focuses on upgrading the intelligent driving system, with model prices unchanged from the previous versions. The refreshed version is equipped with laser radar across the entire series and optimizes chips, active safety capabilities, and user experience. The AD Max version has upgraded from dual Orin-X chips from NVIDIA to a single Thor-U chip, with computing power increased to 700 TOPS, supporting end-to-end + VLM large models, and adding a new VLA large model. The AD Pro model has upgraded from Horizon J5 chips to J6M chips, with laser radar configuration added for the first time. Entering May, benefiting from the stable expectations of new models and terminal promotion policies, the company's weekly deliveries have returned to over 10,000 units; overall, the firm believes that the refreshed model has many upgrades in configuration and generous purchase rights, which are expected to stabilize the monthly sales performance of the L series.

Management system adjustments focus on AI, emphasizing technological and ecological advantages.

From rule-based algorithms to end-to-end + VLM and then to VLA, the company's intelligent driving technology continues to iterate. On one hand, due to the uniqueness of business needs, in-car dialogue, multi-modal interaction, and VLA model training all require specific domain semantic corpora, such as in the automotive field, traffic field, and home user field. The company continues to increase investment in foundational models and develops different models for different application scenarios, such as the 300B large model for Li Auto's assistant and the 32B model for the VL part in assisted driving. Overall, VLA is closer to real human driving, capable of quickly thinking and making judgments based on the scene and executing actions. The firm is optimistic about the company's capabilities and valuation enhancement opportunities in the broader AI field.

The Li Auto i8 officially debuts, ushering in a new pure electric cycle in 2025.

The company's pure electric SUV, the Li Auto i8, has officially appeared in the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announcement and is scheduled for a formal launch in July. In terms of parameters, the i8 is positioned as a pure electric large six-seat luxury SUV, with dimensions of 5085×1960×1740mm and a wheelbase of 3050mm. In terms of power, the i8 is equipped with a dual-motor intelligent four-wheel drive system and features Li Auto's self-developed silicon carbide drive motor for the first time, with a total power of 400 kilowatts (front and rear electric drives are 150/250 kilowatts respectively). In terms of batteries, the i8 is equipped with ternary lithium batteries and 5C ultra-fast charging as standard. Currently, the company has over 2,000 5C charging stations nationwide, and the firm expects this to empower the hot sales of pure electric products. Looking ahead to 2025, the company's product cycle is strong, and the firm believes that the company is likely to stabilize the sales of extended-range models through the refreshed L series, and also hopes to rethink the multiple pure electric models to be launched later, bringing them back onto the hot sales track with the support of a well-established charging network Risk Warning: Pure electric vehicle performance is below expectations; intelligent driving is below expectations; market competition is intensifying