Next week's heavy schedule: US CPI, retail data, Powell's speech, China's social financing, Tencent, Alibaba, JD.com earnings reports

Key Financial Events from May 12 to May 18, all in Beijing time:

This week’s focus: U.S. April CPI, PPI, and retail sales data, Powell's speech, Eurozone Q1 GDP, and the concentrated release of Q1 financial reports from Hong Kong tech stocks such as Tencent, Alibaba, and JD.com.

In addition, China’s April financial data will be released irregularly, U.S. retail giant Walmart will announce its Q1 financial report, and the Hang Seng Index Company will announce the results of the Hang Seng Index series review for the first quarter of 2025.

Tariff Transmission Effects Emerging? U.S. April Inflation Expected to Rise

On Tuesday (May 13), the U.S. will release April CPI data.

Last month, U.S. CPI data unexpectedly cooled. March CPI was -0.1% month-on-month, the lowest in nearly five years, while core CPI was 2.8% year-on-year, the lowest in four years.

Although the data shows that inflation pressures faced by U.S. consumers have eased, this positive trend may be difficult to sustain, especially after Trump implemented comprehensive tariff policies.

"This is just the calm before the inflation storm," said David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management, in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

According to a Bloomberg survey of economists, U.S. April core CPI (excluding volatile food and energy costs) is expected to rise by 0.3%.

Observers believe that U.S. government policies such as increased tariffs may push inflation higher in the coming months, thereby affecting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path.

According to Xinhua News Agency, a poll released by Reuters and Ipsos Group in early April showed that due to U.S. tariff policies, most Americans are preparing for rising prices of everyday consumer goods. 73% of respondents believe that after the new tariffs on almost all imported goods take effect, the prices of everyday items will rise in the next six months.

On Thursday (May 15), the U.S. will release April PPI and retail sales data.

Driven by tariff panic, U.S. March retail sales rose by 1.4% month-on-month, marking the largest increase in over two years.

Although retail data appears optimistic, consumer confidence survey results are less encouraging. Multiple consumer attitude surveys indicate that as Trump pushes forward with tariff plans, consumer confidence has significantly declined. At the same time, inflation expectation indicators have surged, and Americans' views on their financial situation have also deteriorated.

According to Bloomberg, retail sales data is expected to reflect consumers' concerns about inflation, the economy, and the job market to some extent; April retail sales are expected to remain basically flat, as prior automobile demand has cooled.Citigroup believes that the strong consumer data in March may continue into April (and even May), as more consumers may make purchases in advance to avoid potential shortages or price increases due to tariffs. However, this growth is not sustainable; although economic activity data may temporarily remain supportive, signs of weakness in the labor market may soon emerge.

Intensive Earnings Reports from Chinese Internet Technology Giants

On Tuesday (May 13), JD.com announced its Q1 2025 earnings report.

In the previous quarter, JD Group's operating revenue was 347 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, with a net profit of 9.9 billion yuan. JD Group's Chief Financial Officer Dan Su stated that in the fourth quarter of 2024, multiple categories and business segments of the company showed healthy growth momentum, fully reflecting the macro consumption recovery, and JD's market share is also steadily expanding.

For the upcoming Q1 performance, the market is focused on JD's revenue and net profit growth rates, the growth rate of GMV under the continued release of national subsidy policy benefits, and the impact of new businesses such as food delivery on profits.

Since the beginning of this year, JD's Hong Kong and U.S. stocks have shown a sideways fluctuation trend. Since JD announced the launch of its food delivery business on February 11, JD's Hong Kong stock has cumulatively fallen nearly 13%.

On Wednesday (May 14), Tencent Holdings announced its Q1 2025 earnings report.

According to institutional data, Tencent's Q1 operating revenue is expected to be between 172.6 billion and 177.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.2% to 11.5%; net profit is forecasted to be between 50.867 billion and 56.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.4% to 35.4%; adjusted net profit is expected to be between 55.822 billion and 62.309 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.1% to 24.0%.

Everbright Securities expects that Tencent's game product line will be well-managed, with the main growth contribution coming from the Evergreen Games in the first half of 2025, while the second half of 2025 is expected to alleviate high base pressure through new products, boosting Tencent's performance.

Guosheng Securities believes that Tencent is actively promoting AI technology iteration, increasing capital expenditure, and making progress especially in self-developed mixed foundation models, AI applications, cloud services, and monetization. It is expected that Tencent's revenue and profit will continue to grow in the coming years.

CMB International expects that Tencent's video account advertising inventory still has room for growth, benefiting from extended user viewing time and technological advancements, particularly in content recommendation and advertising conversion rate optimization, with advertising revenue expected to grow by 20% year-on-year.

On Thursday (May 15), Alibaba announced its Q4 and full-year earnings report for the fiscal year 2025.

In the previous quarter, Alibaba's revenue growth rate reached its fastest pace in over a year, with a significant increase in capital expenditure, accelerated growth in core businesses, faster growth in Taotian revenue, and Alibaba Cloud's revenue returning to double-digit growth, marking the largest increase in nearly two years. Revenue from AI-related products has maintained triple-digit growth for six consecutive quartersAccording to institutional forecasts, TaoTian Group's GMV growth rate in the fourth fiscal quarter is expected to be around 5% year-on-year, mainly benefiting from the domestic "trade-in" policy stimulus and improved platform operational efficiency.

In terms of cloud business, Guohai Securities expects Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth rate in the fourth fiscal quarter to increase to 16%, while Morgan Stanley predicts an increase of up to 18%.

Other Important Data, Meetings, and Events

• On Tuesday (May 13), the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference for Chinese and foreign journalists on "Following the Path of Specialization, Refinement, Uniqueness, and Innovation to Strengthen Advanced Manufacturing."

The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference titled "Strivers on the New Journey" at 3 PM, inviting representatives from the industrial and information technology sectors (list attached) to meet and communicate with Chinese and foreign journalists on "Following the Path of Specialization, Refinement, Uniqueness, and Innovation to Strengthen Advanced Manufacturing." Attendance is welcome.

• Putin proposes to resume direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul, Turkey on May 15.

According to CCTV News, on May 10 local time, Russian President's Press Secretary Peskov stated in an interview with American media that Russia will consider the proposal for a 30-day ceasefire and pointed out that Russia has its own position on this issue. In addition, he emphasized that Russia is willing to engage in dialogue for a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine conflict, but attempts to pressure Russia are futile.

Reports indicate that Putin proposed to resume direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul, Turkey on May 15, stating that he would discuss the issue of holding Russia-Ukraine negotiations with the Turkish president.

Putin reiterated that Russia is willing to engage in direct negotiations with Ukraine without setting preconditions. He noted that the reasons for the breakdown of previous negotiations held in Istanbul were not on the Russian side, and although military actions are still ongoing, Russia is willing to resume the previously interrupted negotiations with Ukraine.

Putin also announced that Russian presidential aide Ushakov stated that the Russian negotiation delegation will soon travel to Istanbul, with the head of the delegation to be announced separately.

• U.S. President Trump will visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE from May 13 to 16.

According to Global Network, citing reports from American "Politico" and Russian TASS, White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt stated at a White House press conference on the 22nd local time that U.S. President Trump will visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE from May 13 to 16.

"Politico" reported that Levitt stated that the purpose of this visit is to strengthen relations with Middle Eastern countries, "He (Trump) will hold multiple bilateral meetings, and we look forward to this visit." The report mentioned that in recent months, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE have provided diplomatic support to the Trump administration, including assistance in holding ceasefire negotiations regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

• On Thursday (May 15), the central bank will implement targeted reserve requirement ratio cuts.On May 7th, the People's Bank of China announced that starting from May 15th, it will lower the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points (excluding financial institutions that have already implemented a 5% reserve requirement ratio) and lower the reserve requirement ratio for auto finance companies and financial leasing companies by 5 percentage points.

• On Thursday (May 15th), American consumer giant Walmart will release its Q1 2026 financial report

UBS analysis states that Walmart's Q1 will generate stable and predictable operating income. Despite broader concerns about tariffs and economic pressures, the company will be more resilient due to its heavy reliance on consumer goods and other high-margin revenue sources.

Institutions expect Walmart to achieve revenue of $164.503 billion, an increase of 2.85% year-on-year; the expected earnings per share is $0.579, a decrease of 8.11% year-on-year.

• On Thursday (May 15th), Powell will deliver a speech

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver opening remarks at an event, discussing the assessment of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler, and Christopher Waller will also attend the event.

• On Thursday (May 15th), the Eurozone will release Q1 GDP data

Previously released data showed that the Eurozone's Q1 GDP preliminary quarter-on-quarter growth was 0.4%, and year-on-year growth was 1.2%. Germany's growth of 0.2% met expectations, while France's growth of 0.1% was mainly due to an increase in inventories. Italy recorded a growth of 0.3%, exceeding expectations. Policymakers, economists, and officials generally view the U.S. tariff policy as a key concern.

• On Thursday (May 15th), Huawei will hold a press conference in Germany

Huawei previously announced that it will hold a 2025 product launch conference in Berlin, Germany, on May 15th, to launch the Huawei WATCH 5 series smartwatches.

• On Friday (May 16th), Hang Seng Index Company will announce the results of the Hang Seng Index series review for Q1 2025

On April 1st, the Hang Seng Index Company announced that it will announce the results of the Hang Seng Index series review for Q1 2025 on May 16th (Friday). Changes to the constituents of the Hang Seng Index series will take effect on June 9th, 2025 (Monday).

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The market has risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. Investment based on this is at one's own risk