Goldman Sachs interprets the significance of the US-UK agreement: The simplest agreement has been reached like this, while other agreements are not progressing smoothly
Goldman Sachs foreign exchange strategist Isabella Rosenberg analyzed the US-UK agreement, pointing out that the 10% baseline and industry tariffs are non-negotiable, indicating a hawkish stance from the US. She believes that future negotiations with important trading partners like Japan will face significant obstacles. Although the US-UK trade agreement is relatively straightforward and the India trade agreement may be reached soon, the overall impact on the US trade deficit is limited. Future deals may be more complex, and negotiations will be more tense
Goldman Sachs foreign exchange strategist Isabella Rosenberg believes:
A 10% baseline is non-negotiable, and so are industry-level tariffs... indicating that the U.S. is quite hawkish...
Overall, this suggests significant obstacles in the future, especially with key reciprocal trade partners like Japan. U.S.-U.K. trade can be ignored, and this deal may be one of the easiest to arrange; an India trade agreement may be forthcoming. Together, these two do not constitute a large portion of the U.S. trade deficit.
At some point, it makes sense to raise the threat of tariffs again. Most importantly, despite some alleviation, these are some of the simplest obstacles, and future deals may be harder to achieve or involve more tense negotiations.
