Goldman Sachs warns that the U.S. stock market could decline by about 20% due to "recession risks."
Goldman Sachs warns that the U.S. stock market may face a nearly 20% decline risk, primarily due to the threat of an economic recession. Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius expects a 45% chance of a U.S. economic recession in the next 12 months. He noted that recent economic data has been mixed, with both weak sentiment surveys and strong non-farm payroll data. Additionally, Goldman Sachs Chief Political Economist mentioned that comments from the U.S. President regarding a trade agreement with the UK could lead to higher tariffs
Goldman Sachs stated that the stock market faces a nearly 20% risk of decline, and a recession poses a significant risk to the stock market. In Thursday's podcast, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius and Chief Global Equity Strategist Peter Oppenheimer appeared particularly cautious. Hatzius reiterated that he expects a 45% chance of a U.S. economic recession in the next 12 months. He acknowledged that recent data has been mixed, with weak soft data such as sentiment surveys and stronger hard data like the latest non-farm payroll figures. Goldman Sachs' Chief Political Economist warned that comments from the U.S. President regarding trade agreements with the UK suggest that many countries will ultimately face higher tariffs than before Trump's re-election.
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