Is the bearish sentiment on U.S. stocks already too much of a consensus?
Goldman Sachs trader Brian Garrett pointed out that the current bearish view on U.S. stocks has become a consensus, with over 50% of investors holding a negative outlook on the market in the AAII survey, setting a historical high for 11 consecutive weeks. This trend indicates that investors are pessimistic about the market direction over the next six months, reflecting a generally bearish market sentiment
Goldman Sachs trader Brian Garrett warned: "If you're bearish, then you're the consensus..." He added, "That doesn't mean you're wrong, but you belong to the majority."
Since 1987, the AAII survey has been released weekly (investors are either bullish, bearish, or neutral), providing insights into individual investors' views by asking them about their outlook for the market over the next six months.
Historically, investors have never been so persistently bearish... For 11 consecutive weeks, over 50% of respondents have held a negative view of the market...
The previous record was 7 consecutive weeks in 1990... The highest record in 2008 was 4 weeks... The highest record in 2022 was 5 weeks.
