U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise Together, Trump to Announce Trade Agreement with the UK

1. As of May 8th (Thursday) before the US stock market opens, the three major US stock index futures are all up. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.88%, S&P 500 index futures are up 1.03%, and Nasdaq futures are up 1.35%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 1.16%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.28%, the French CAC40 index is up 1.07%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 1.28%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 1.77%, priced at $59.10 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 1.47%, priced at $62.02 per barrel.

Market News

Trump to announce trade agreement with the UK. US President Donald Trump stated that he will announce a "comprehensive" trade agreement with the UK later today at 10 AM Eastern Time. Trump posted on social media: "The agreement reached with the UK is comprehensive and will strengthen the relationship between the US and the UK for many years to come." He added: "We are very honored to have reached the first agreement with the UK, and there will be many other agreements signed with the UK, which are currently in serious negotiations." Although the details of the agreement have not been disclosed, it may involve reducing tariff quotas on UK steel and automobiles and may involve agricultural tariff issues. The UK is not among the countries subject to additional tariffs, as its imports from the US exceed its exports.

Asset management giant PIMCO sounds alarm: US recession risk intensifies, market underestimates Trump's determination to restore aggressive tariffs. Executives from Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO), a global asset management giant focused on fixed-income assets such as bonds, recently stated in a media interview that the risk of a US economic recession has risen to its highest level in years, warning that investors may be underestimating President Donald Trump's determination to restore the high and aggressive reciprocal tariffs that caused severe turmoil in global financial markets last month. "We are very likely to face a deep economic recession," said PIMCO's Chief Investment Officer Dan Ivascyn during an interview with European financial media alongside PIMCO CEO Emmanuel Roman on Thursday. "The probability of this economic recession is at its highest point in recent years," emphasized Dan Ivascyn during the interview.

Powell: The Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut interest rates; the outlook depends on the White House. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear that he will not rush to lower borrowing costs until the direction of trade policy is more certain, and the direction of trade policy must be determined by the White House Powell and his colleagues kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and stated during their first meeting since President Trump announced comprehensive tariffs last month that the risks of rising inflation and unemployment have increased. Powell noted that this situation will force the Federal Reserve to make a difficult choice between lowering borrowing costs to support the job market and maintaining borrowing costs to curb price pressures. Meanwhile, he indicated that the uncertainty surrounding the scope and scale of the tariffs—along with the outcomes of upcoming trade negotiations—will lead policymakers to temporarily pause action. On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to maintain the benchmark federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, unchanged since December of last year.

Trump's tariffs pressure the dollar, Goldman Sachs raises U.S. inflation expectations for this year and next. Economists at Goldman Sachs have raised their forecasts for U.S. inflation this year and next, partly due to the weakening of the dollar following the Trump administration's announcement of tariffs. Goldman Sachs economists Ronnie Walker and Elsie Peng stated on Wednesday that a key potential inflation indicator is expected to rise to 3.8% by the end of 2025 and then fall to 2.7% by the end of 2026, higher than previous forecasts of 3.5% and 2.3%. In March, this indicator—the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy—was at 2.6%. Goldman Sachs economists said, "First, the dollar weakened in response to the tariff news rather than strengthened, amplifying rather than offsetting the direct impact of tariffs on prices. Second, excessively high tariffs on Chinese imports will shift import demand from China to countries with higher production costs but lower U.S. tariff rates."

Individual Stock News

Shopify (SHOP.US) earnings beat expectations but tariff clouds loom, with cross-border business accounting for 14% under pressure. Shopify's sales for the first quarter of 2025 reached $2.36 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations of $2.34 billion, but tariff pressures have already manifested in performance expectations. The company expects second-quarter revenue, ending June 30, to grow approximately 24%-26% year-over-year, although this is above analysts' expectation of 23%, the pre-market stock price still fell due to uncertainties in the trade environment. The Canadian e-commerce service provider pointed out that the high tariffs imposed on Chinese goods are posing challenges. Data shows that its cross-border business accounted for 14% of the total gross merchandise volume (GMV) in the fourth quarter of 2024, and the U.S. policy of closing the "minimum" tariff exemption (allowing duty-free entry for Chinese goods under $800) this month will further impact this sector.

Toyota (TM.US) Q4 performance mixed, warns of a 21% decline in operating profit for FY2026 under tariff impact. Toyota's Q4 revenue was 12.36 trillion yen, a year-on-year increase of 12%, slightly above analysts' average expectation of 12.14 trillion yen; net profit was 664.6 billion yen, a year-on-year decrease of 33%, falling short of analysts' average expectation of 823.6 billion yen. For the fiscal year 2025, Toyota's total revenue was 48.04 trillion yen, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%; operating profit was 4.80 trillion yen, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%; net profit attributable to the company was 4.77 trillion yen, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%. Total vehicle sales for the fiscal year 2025 were 11.011 million units Looking ahead, this global largest automobile manufacturer expects an operating profit of 3.8 trillion yen for the fiscal year ending March 2026, a year-on-year decline of 21%, which is significantly lower than the average analyst expectation of 4.7 trillion yen.

Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD.US) Q1 profit significantly exceeds expectations, maintains full-year performance guidance. The world's largest beer manufacturer Anheuser-Busch InBev's adjusted earnings greatly surpassed market expectations, thanks to sales growth of its top beers in some of the largest markets. Data shows that the company's Q1 organic adjusted EBITDA grew by 7.9%, better than the analyst expectation of 3.68%. The company maintains its fiscal year guidance, expecting EBITDA to align with its mid-term expectation of 4% to 8%.

Debt reduction and efficiency improvement in parallel, Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US) Q1 performance exceeds expectations. Occidental Petroleum's Q1 sales increased by 14% year-on-year to $6.84 billion, slightly above the average analyst expectation of $6.83 billion; earnings per share rose by 38% year-on-year to $0.87, better than the average analyst expectation of $0.78. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter that this oil producer's earnings per share have exceeded analyst expectations. In recent quarters, Occidental Petroleum has focused on cleaning up its balance sheet and reducing debt. The company reported at the end of last year's fourth quarter that it had achieved its short-term debt reduction target.

Arm (ARM.US) Q1 performance guidance disappoints, highlighting concerns over chip industry slowdown. Arm's revenue for the first fiscal quarter is expected to reach $1 billion to $1.1 billion, with analysts expecting it to be at the upper end of that range. Excluding certain items, earnings per share will be between 30 to 38 cents, also below the analyst expectation of 42 cents. The company attributes its conservative forecast to the timing of reaching new agreements with customers. Arm CEO Rene Haas stated that the company is finalizing licensing agreements and hopes to ensure these agreements are signed before increasing revenue. He noted that customers continue to invest heavily in chips, especially in artificial intelligence computing, which is beneficial for Arm.

Fortinet (FTNT.US) Q1 performance exceeds expectations, growth concerns trigger stock price plunge. Fortinet's first-quarter revenue grew by 13.7% from last year's $1.353 billion to $1.539 billion, in line with market average expectations. The company's net profit increased by 44.8% year-on-year to $433.4 million, or earnings per share of $0.56. In comparison, the net profit for the same period last year was $299.3 million, with earnings per share of $0.39. Excluding special items, Fortinet's adjusted earnings for the quarter were $452.3 million, or earnings per share of $0.58, exceeding the previous average analyst expectation of $0.53. In terms of performance outlook, the company expects next quarter's earnings per share to be between $0.58 - $0.60, with revenue expectations of $1.59 - $1.65 billion. Analysts previously expected revenue to be $1.63 billion.

Applovin (APP.US) Q1 performance exceeds expectations, agrees to sell mobile gaming division. Applovin's Q1 revenue was $1.48 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40%, exceeding market expectations; The adjusted earnings per share were $1.67, exceeding market expectations. AppLovin agreed to sell its mobile gaming division to London's Tripledot Studios to focus on its advertising technology business. Documents show that the California-based marketing company will receive $400 million in cash and a 20% stake in Tripledot. AppLovin also announced a strong second-quarter advertising revenue guidance, expecting Q2 advertising revenue to be between $1.195 billion and $1.215 billion; adjusted EBITDA for advertising is expected to be between $970 million and $990 million.

Zai Ding Pharmaceutical (ZLAB.US) reported total revenue of $106 million in the first quarter, an increase of 22.19% year-on-year. Zai Ding Pharmaceutical released its unaudited results for the three months ending March 31, 2025, with total revenue of $106 million, an increase of 22.19% year-on-year; R&D expenses were $60.729 million, an increase of 11.13% year-on-year. Among them, the net product revenue for the first quarter of 2025 was $105.7 million, compared to $87.1 million in the same period of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21%, and a year-on-year increase of 23% at fixed exchange rates. This growth was mainly driven by increased sales of Weiwei Jia, Zele, and Niu Zai Le.

Autohome (ATHM.US) reported a net profit attributable to common shareholders of 340 million yuan in the first quarter, with a continuously expanding user base. Autohome released its performance for the first quarter of 2025, with total net revenue of 1.454 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), gross profit of 1.138 billion yuan; net profit of 342 million yuan; net profit attributable to common shareholders of 340 million yuan; basic net profit per share of 0.72 yuan.

Apple (AAPL.US) attempts to salvage $20 billion Google search deal: future cooperation may no longer be necessary. Apple made an unusual statement while trying to salvage its lucrative search partnership with Google, a subsidiary of Alphabet (GOOGL.US), stating that this deal may not be necessary in the long run, and even the iPhone may no longer be used. Eddy Cue, Apple's senior vice president of services, articulated this view while testifying in the U.S. Department of Justice's antitrust trial against Google on Wednesday. Although Apple receives about $20 billion annually from Google—as a return for setting Google's search engine as the default option on its devices—Cue warned that the entire landscape is changing. He stated that Apple has plans to reshape its Safari web browser around AI services such as OpenAI's ChatGPT, Perplexity AI Inc., and Anthropic PBC's Claude.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 20:30: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending May 3 (10,000).

Beijing time 22:00: U.S. March wholesale inventory month-on-month final value (%).

Beijing time 23:00: U.S. April New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations (%)