By 2030, 500,000 vehicles! Goldman Sachs predicts a 700-fold increase in the autonomous taxi market over the next decade
Goldman Sachs predicts that China's autonomous taxi market will reach 500,000 vehicles by 2030, with the market size expected to grow to $47 billion by 2035, a 700-fold increase over ten years. The report points out that China is ahead of the United States in the commercialization process of the Robotaxi market, thanks to an improved regulatory environment, infrastructure adaptability, and increased consumer acceptance. Early entrants like Pony AI and WeRide will face huge opportunities, with daily revenue per Robotaxi expected to reach $69 by 2035
China's autonomous taxi market is set to experience explosive growth.
According to the Wind Trading Platform, Goldman Sachs predicted in a research report on May 6 that by 2030, China will have 500,000 autonomous taxis (Robotaxi), with the market size expected to reach $47 billion by 2035.
The report states that the explosive growth of the Robotaxi market will bring huge opportunities for early entrants like Pony AI and WeRide, as well as investment opportunities for related supply chain companies such as automotive semiconductors and components.
Additionally, Goldman Sachs noted that compared to the United States, China has clearly taken the lead in the commercialization process of the Robotaxi market, mainly due to a more favorable regulatory environment, rapid adaptation of infrastructure, and higher consumer acceptance.
China's Robotaxi Market to Grow 700 Times in 10 Years
Goldman Sachs analysts Allen Chang, Verena Jeng, and others stated in the research report that by 2030, the top ten major cities in China will operate 500,000 autonomous taxis. They believe that Robotaxi is one of the earliest and most obvious pathways for the commercialization of autonomous driving technology.
This is mainly due to the increasing acceptance of consumers in first-tier cities, the tightening supply of human drivers due to fleet maturity and driver retirements, and the support from the government and insurance industry for industry growth.
Goldman Sachs analysts predict that the market size of China's Robotaxi market will grow 700 times over the next decade:
Market size in 2025: $54 million
Market size in 2030: $12 billion
Market size in 2035: $47 billion
Goldman Sachs expects that by 2035, each Robotaxi could generate $69 per day (up from $36 in 2025), which will be higher than the average daily income of traditional ride-hailing services, which ranges from $28 to $56 (approximately RMB 200-450), mainly due to the longer operating hours of Robotaxis.
Huge Opportunities for Early Entrants and Supply Chains
Currently, Robotaxis are already in operation in more than a dozen cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Wuhan, and Chongqing.
Goldman Sachs stated that early market entrants such as Pony AI, WeRide, and Baidu Apollo will benefit from China's accelerated shift towards autonomous driving mobility.
Goldman Sachs analysts provided clients with a list of Robotaxi operators, automotive semiconductor, and automotive component companies that will benefit from the rise of Robotaxis in China.
China's Robotaxi Commercialization Process Clearly Ahead of the U.S.
The report also pointed out that compared to China, the progress of Robotaxi operations in the United States is relatively lagging, mainly due to fragmented regulations, slower adaptation of infrastructure, and more cautious public sentiment In the United States, companies such as Waymo (formerly Google's self-driving car division), Zoox, Cruise, and Tesla are currently either in the testing phase or have only launched small-scale commercialization.
Goldman Sachs stated that the next Robotaxi project in the U.S. is expected to be launched by Tesla in June.
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