Is JD.com and Meituan really in a delivery war? Yes and no

Recently, JD.com announced its entry into the takeaway market, undoubtedly bringing a sense of tension to the market.

According to news from the Chase Wind Trading Desk, on the 7th, Bernstein released a research report stating that the competition between JD.com and Meituan in the takeaway field is not merely a traditional market share battle; the deeper motivation is a new round of strategic layout around "instant retail."

JD.com's entry is more of a response to the growth of Meituan's instant retail business, while Meituan is defending itself based on its advantages in the long-tail catering market. Although the market has shown excessive concern about the stock performance of both parties, this competition may bring valuation recovery opportunities for investors in the long run.

JD.com's Motivation for Entry: A Dual Consideration of Defense and Offense

JD.com's entry this time carries both defensive and offensive implications.

Bernstein stated that, on one hand, Meituan has rapidly risen in the instant retail (Instashopping) sector in recent years, with its gross transaction value (GTV) reaching approximately 27 billion yuan in 2024, and is expected to grow to 33 billion yuan in 2025. The rapid expansion of this business, especially in traditional strong categories like daily necessities, has put substantial pressure on JD.com.

On the other hand, JD.com hopes to leverage the takeaway business to bring new traffic and order growth to its core e-commerce system. Especially in the context of intensifying competition in e-commerce, expanding high-frequency, essential takeaway services is expected to enhance user retention and extend its business boundaries.

In addition, JD.com's takeaway business also carries its expectations for e-commerce growth. By driving traffic through the takeaway business, JD.com can further enhance user activity and transaction volume on its platform. Data shows that JD.com's DAU (daily active users) has achieved moderate growth in the past few months, while the number of app sessions has increased by more than 20%.

Meituan's Response Strategy: Long-Tail Advantage and Precise Counterattack

In response to JD.com's "flanking attack," Meituan has demonstrated a solid defensive posture.

Bernstein stated that Meituan has a clear advantage in the long-tail catering market, with its takeaway business covering a wide range, from street-side small shops to large chain restaurants, establishing a complete service network. In contrast, JD.com is currently mainly focused on short-tail demand, primarily catering orders from chain brands. Although this portion of orders has a higher transaction value, the overall profit margin is lower, and the dependence on the platform is also limited.

Bernstein believes that Meituan's response strategy is to leverage its advantages in the long-tail market to fend off JD.com's attacks through precise marketing investments. Meituan has a large ground operation team that can reach every corner of cities to provide traffic support for small and medium-sized restaurants. At the same time, Meituan is also increasing its continuous investment in instant retail business to maintain and expand its market share in emerging consumption scenarios.

Financial Impact: The Other Side of Competition

Bernstein believes that although the market shows excessive concern about the competition between JD.com and Meituan, from a financial perspective, the losses for both sides may not be as severe as the market expects.

For Meituan, although its order volume may be impacted to some extent, the effect on profits is relatively small due to the lower profit margins of short-tail orders. Meituan's core business—takeout and in-store services—still has strong profitability, with its non-GAAP net profit expected to reach approximately 4.9 billion yuan in 2025.

For JD.com, the losses in the takeout business may only be temporary. Although its takeout business had a unit loss of nearly 10 yuan in April, JD.com has begun to adjust its strategy by reducing subsidies for delivery riders and requiring merchants to share some of the user subsidy costs. In addition, JD.com's e-commerce business still has strong growth potential, with its non-GAAP net profit expected to reach approximately 4.7 billion yuan in 2025.

Meituan's stock price has recently reached around HKD 130, while JD.com's stock price is around USD 30. However, Bernstein believes that as competition rationalizes and investors accept the expected price-to-earnings ratio for 2026, both companies' stock prices are expected to achieve valuation recovery in the coming quarters