Is the cold winter not over? Star hedge fund managers warn that U.S. stocks may still hit new lows
Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones warned that although Trump may slow down the tariff policy against China, U.S. stocks could still hit new lows. He pointed out that the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates and high tariffs will weaken U.S. economic growth by 2% to 3%. Jones believes that the stock market has not yet bottomed out, and unless the Federal Reserve adopts a dovish stance and significantly cuts interest rates, the market will face more difficult times
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones stated on Tuesday that even if U.S. President Trump slows down the tariff policy against China, the stock market may still hit new lows.
He said, "It's clear to me. Trump is steadfast in pushing forward with the tariff policy, while the Federal Reserve is equally steadfast in not lowering interest rates. This is not good news for the stock market." He further pointed out, "Even if Trump reduces the tariffs on China to 50%, we are still likely to drop to new lows."
Jones's pessimistic remarks come at a time of heightened turmoil in global markets. Last month, Trump announced the highest tariffs on Chinese imports since the 1960s, triggering severe market fluctuations. The S&P 500 index once plummeted significantly but has recently rebounded, yet it remains about 8% lower than its historical peak.
So far this year, U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports have accumulated to 145%, while China has retaliated with a 125% punitive tariff on U.S. products.
Jones noted, "Trump may reduce tariffs to 50% or even 40%, but even so, this would still be the largest tax increase since the 1960s. As a result, it can be expected that U.S. economic growth will weaken by 2% to 3%."
As the founder and chief investment officer of Tudor Investment Corp, Jones believes that the stock market has not yet bottomed out amid a deteriorating macroeconomic environment. He pointed out that the Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% since last December. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has stated that policymakers want to see clearer impacts from trade policies before adjusting interest rates.
Jones further warned, "Unless the Federal Reserve takes a very dovish stance and significantly lowers interest rates, we are likely to drop to new lows. At that point, the real tough times will begin, which will force the Federal Reserve to act and will also compel Trump to make changes. Only then might we see a bit of reality."
Paul Tudor Jones rose to fame for successfully predicting and profiting from the 1987 U.S. stock market crash. He is currently also the chairman of the nonprofit organization Just Capital, which ranks U.S. publicly traded companies based on social and environmental metrics
