U.S. Stock Outlook | Three major index futures all decline, Goldman Sachs: Buy the dip in tech stocks, a good opportunity for AI stocks

1. As of May 6th (Tuesday) before the US stock market opened, the futures of the three major US stock indices were all down. As of the time of writing, Dow futures were down 0.77%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.93%, and Nasdaq futures were down 1.21%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index was down 0.89%, the UK FTSE 100 index was down 0.22%, the French CAC 40 index was down 0.52%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index was down 0.70%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil was up 2.15%, priced at $58.36 per barrel. Brent crude oil was up 2.06%, priced at $61.47 per barrel.

Market News

Goldman Sachs: Earnings from tech giants boost confidence, recent pullback provides a good opportunity to buy into the US AI sector. Goldman Sachs analysts stated that the earnings reports released by some large tech companies involved in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector at the end of last month exceeded expectations, indicating that investors have an opportunity to reposition in this sector after the recent pullback. The AI sector, which has driven the market up over the past two years, has shown lackluster performance as it enters 2025. In January of this year, the emergence of DeepSeek raised doubts about the necessity for US companies to invest billions of dollars in building AI systems, leading to a sharp decline in chip manufacturers and AI-related stocks. Additionally, the recent trade war initiated by US President Trump has raised concerns about a slowdown in US economic growth or even a recession.

Goldman Sachs: Under multiple challenges such as high inflation and tariff wars, the Fed's "patience" signal continues to strengthen. Goldman Sachs published a report stating that Federal Reserve officials have recently shown a high degree of caution regarding monetary policy adjustments, emphasizing the need to wait for more data support before taking action. Overall, high inflation, uncertainty in tariff policies, and potential risks in the labor market are core considerations for current decision-making. Goldman Sachs pointed out that since the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, several officials have aligned with Chairman Powell's stance, believing that current policy is "in a good position" and that they need to wait for clearer economic data before deciding whether to adjust interest rates. Cleveland Fed President Mester stated, "I would rather act slowly but in the right direction than act quickly and make mistakes."

Has the US stock market rebound passed? Cantor Fitzgerald sounds the alarm: multiple bearish factors are accumulating. In a recent investor report, Cantor Fitzgerald maintained a bearish stance on the US stock market. The firm warned that the recent market rebound, primarily driven by investor positions, may have already passed The company expects to face severe economic and corporate challenges in the next three to nine months due to multiple adverse factors. Cantor Fitzgerald stated in a report: "We remain bearish on the stock market and believe that the rebound we anticipated based on multiple factors has now passed."

External pressure takes effect, OpenAI commits to nonprofit "steering control." Under pressure from leaders across society and former employees, OpenAI announced in a blog post on Monday that even as the company restructures into a public benefit corporation, its nonprofit organization will retain control over the company. The Microsoft-backed company was recently valued at up to $300 billion in a funding round led by SoftBank. OpenAI stated that this decision was made after discussions with the attorneys general of California and Delaware. OpenAI board chairman Bret Taylor said in an interview: "Under the structure we envision, the nonprofit will continue to control OpenAI. We will transform the limited liability company, which is a subsidiary of the nonprofit, into a Public Benefit Corporation (PBC).

Individual Stock News

DoorDash (DASH.US) reports over 20% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1, EBITDA exceeds expectations. DoorDash's Q1 revenue grew 20.7% year-on-year to $3.03 billion (below market expectations by $60 million), with a net revenue margin flat at 13.1%, and the contribution margin slightly decreased from 4.5% to 4.4%; adjusted EBITDA reached $590 million (up 59% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of $588.5 million). The company expects adjusted EBITDA for Q2 to be between $600 million and $650 million (with a midpoint of $625 million, slightly below market expectations of $638 million) and cautioned about fluctuations in consumer demand and exchange rate risks. It is reported that the company's Marketplace GOV (Gross Order Value) reached $23.1 billion (up 20% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of $22.9 billion), with the number of consumers in the grocery category and average order value (especially for perishable food spending) both hitting record highs.

Tariff shock casts a shadow, Philips (PHG.US) lowers annual profit forecast. Dutch medical technology company Philips stated that despite implementing "a large number of tariff mitigation measures," U.S. tariffs will still have a net impact of €250 million to €300 million (approximately $283 million to $340 million), leading the company to lower its profit margin expectations for 2025. Data shows that the company's Q1 sales were €4.1 billion, a 2% year-on-year decline on a comparable basis, but higher than analysts' average expectation of €4.02 billion. The U.S. is Philips' largest market, expected to account for about 40% of its 2024 sales and one-third of its tax contributions. The company imports various products from China, including ventilator masks, electric shavers, toothbrushes, and other equipment, while sourcing medical devices from Europe. Despite slightly exceeding expectations in Q1 sales, Philips has still lowered its full-year core profit forecast Palantir (PLTR.US) Q1 performance meets expectations, raises 2025 revenue forecast due to "surging" AI demand. Palantir's first-quarter revenue soared 39% to $884 million, exceeding analysts' average expectation of $863 million; adjusted earnings per share were 13 cents, in line with market expectations. Palantir described the surge in demand for artificial intelligence software as a "tsunami" and raised its 2025 revenue forecast from approximately $3.75 billion to about $3.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36%. In the U.S. market, sales to commercial customers grew 71% this quarter to $255 million; as of March 31, sales to the U.S. government increased 45% to $373 million, benefiting from new orders resulting from adjustments in government spending structures, with analysts previously expecting $358 million.

Ford Motor Company (F.US) Q1 performance exceeds expectations but withdraws full-year profit guidance. Ford's Q1 revenue fell 5% year-on-year to $40.7 billion, but far exceeded analysts' average expectation of $36 billion, as consumers rushed to buy cars due to concerns that tariffs would lead to price increases. The company was also one of the few automakers to implement incentives to capture market share during the car-buying frenzy. Adjusted earnings per share were 14 cents, down from 49 cents in the same period last year, but better than analysts' average expectation of 2 cents. Revenue from the Ford Pro division (commercial vehicles) fell 16% year-on-year to $15.2 billion, with EBIT dropping from $3.006 billion in the same period last year to $1.309 billion, roughly in line with expectations. The Model e division, which includes software and electric vehicles, generated $1.2 billion in revenue.

Renowned journalist reveals: Apple's (AAPL.US) AI may launch in the Chinese market with iOS 18.6, supported by Alibaba and Baidu. Apple's AI, known as Apple Intelligence, officially launched in some overseas markets last year but has yet to debut in China. However, renowned Apple leaker Mark Gurman disclosed that Apple's AI is expected to enable some features for the first time in mainland China with the iOS 18.6 system, supported by Alibaba (BABA.US) and Baidu (BIDU.US). It is reported that Baidu's Wenxin Yiyan large model will serve as the core cloud-based intelligent engine for Apple's AI in the Chinese market. Meanwhile, to ensure AI content complies with domestic regulations, Apple will also introduce a review mechanism provided by Alibaba to conduct local compliance audits on AI-generated content.

WeRide (WRD.US) expands strategic cooperation with Uber (UBER.US). WeRide and Uber jointly announced on Monday the expansion of their strategic cooperation, planning to deploy autonomous Robotaxi services in 15 cities across Europe, the Middle East, and other regions over the next five years. It is reported that in this expanded strategic cooperation, both parties commit to adding multiple cooperative cities annually in markets outside of China and the U.S., scaling up the deployment of autonomous Robotaxi fleets. Users will be able to call WeRide's Robotaxi service through the Uber app, with Uber responsible for fleet operation management The cooperative relationship between the two parties can be traced back to last year. In September 2024, WenYuan ZhiXing and Uber signed a strategic cooperation agreement, and in December 2024, they launched Robotaxi public operation services in Abu Dhabi. In April this year, the cooperation expanded to Dubai.

U.S. Department of Justice takes action against monopoly: Google's (GOOGL.US) advertising business may face forced divestiture. The U.S. Department of Justice submitted documents to the federal court, demanding that Google must divest two core assets from its online advertising business—advertising exchange platform AdX and publisher ad server. This forced divestiture request stems from an antitrust ruling made last month by Judge Leoni Brinks of the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia, which found that Google engaged in illegal monopolistic behavior in the digital advertising exchange market and ad server domain. The Department of Justice emphasized in court documents that Google has created a "self-rewarding" closed-loop ecosystem through long-term abuse of its market dominance. Specifically, Google is accused of providing special privileges for its own advertising products, including preferential access to advertising exchange platform data and artificially restricting competitors' technical access, forcing advertisers and website publishers to heavily rely on its service system.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecasts

Beijing time 20:30: U.S. March trade balance (in hundreds of millions of USD).

Next day, Beijing time 01:00: U.S. May 6th 10-year Treasury bond auction - total amount (in hundreds of millions of USD).

Next day, Beijing time 04:30: U.S. API crude oil inventory change for the week ending May 2nd (in ten thousand barrels).

Next day, Beijing time 00:00: EIA releases the monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report.

Earnings Forecast

Wednesday morning: AMD (AMD.US), Supermicro Computer (SMCI.US)

Wednesday pre-market: Novo Nordisk (NVO.US), Uber (UBER.US), Disney (DIS.US), Barrick Gold (GOLD.US)