China Post Securities: Easing tariff expectations may present a bottom-buying opportunity for gold

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, China Postal Securities released a research report stating that after the April non-farm data exceeded expectations, the interest rate cut expectations have been pushed back, leading to fluctuations in gold and silver. At the same time, there are expectations of easing tariffs, and the offshore RMB surged during the May Day holiday, which may put some pressure on Shanghai gold. In the future, the shadow of tariffs from the Trump administration still looms, and the essence of the reduction in the trade deficit is the decline in U.S. Treasury purchases. The probability of rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields has increased, highlighting the allocation value of gold. In terms of tin metal, in the medium term, the resumption meeting in Myanmar has clarified the process, and an increase in output is expected to be released in late June; the full resumption of the Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is approaching, and the market is worried about supply pressure in the second quarter. It is expected that tin prices will maintain a weak oscillation trend in the short term.

The main views of China Postal Securities are as follows:

Precious Metals: Ignore Non-Farm Fluctuations, Look for Opportunities to Go Long on Gold at the Bottom

Last week, gold and silver showed a fluctuating trend. After the April non-farm data exceeded expectations, the interest rate cut expectations were pushed back, leading to fluctuations in gold and silver. At the same time, there are expectations of easing tariffs, and the offshore RMB surged during the May Day holiday, which may put some pressure on Shanghai gold. In the future, the shadow of tariffs from the Trump administration still looms, and the essence of the reduction in the trade deficit is the decline in U.S. Treasury purchases. The probability of rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields has increased, highlighting the allocation value of gold. Specifically, as long as the nominal yield of long-term U.S. Treasuries is above 4%, the upward trend of gold is likely to continue. The main reason for this adjustment in gold is the profit-taking by bulls after the exchange rate deviation, expectations of easing tariffs, and the appreciation of the RMB may provide a good buying point for Shanghai gold again.

Copper: Trade Pricing and Macro Pricing Intertwined, London Copper Fluctuates Around $9,300

Last week, the trade pricing sentiment eased somewhat, and the price difference between New York copper and London copper returned to around 10%, which led to a significant decline in copper prices on April 30. However, the improvement in macro sentiment continued to push up copper prices, mainly due to the expectations of improving tariff conditions. In the future, copper may continue to fluctuate around trade and macro pricing, with $9,300 possibly serving as a central point.

Aluminum: There is a Possibility of Continuing to Rise in the Short Term, but May Start to Weaken After 25H2

Last week, aluminum inventories continued to decrease rapidly, reflecting strong domestic demand. However, under the backdrop of U.S.-China tariffs, there may be a significant impact on U.S. aluminum exports. Additionally, domestic photovoltaic production has weakened marginally, and the bidding for ultra-high voltage projects has temporarily ended, indicating that the most robust period of domestic demand may have passed. In May, aluminum may still have the potential to rise due to low inventories, but attention needs to be paid to the risk of reversal. Once the inventory turns from depletion to accumulation, price reversals may occur.

Antimony: Antimony Prices Fluctuate at High Levels, Supply Continues to Tighten

Last week, antimony prices continued to fluctuate at high levels. The import data for March showed that China imported 1,483 tons of other antimony ores and concentrates, a month-on-month decline of 55.77%. On the demand side, the production of antimony ingots (including antimony ingots, crude antimony equivalents, cathode antimony, etc.) in China fell by 10% month-on-month in April, and the production of sodium antimonate grade products decreased by about 1.8% month-on-month. The widening price gap between domestic and foreign antimony exacerbates supply shortages, and high antimony prices significantly suppress antimony ingot production. The short-term outlook for antimony prices shows a tight supply and weak demand situation, and it is expected that prices will remain high in the short term, while demand may weaken marginally after the photovoltaic installation rush Tin: Price Drop Driven by Production Resumption Expectations in Myanmar and Congo

Last week, tin prices fell as domestic pre-holiday stocking was weaker than expected on the demand side. On the supply side, refined tin production in April decreased by 0.52% month-on-month and declined by 8.13% year-on-year. The tightening supply of tin concentrate and scrap tin formed a rigid constraint, with tin concentrate processing fees (TC) remaining at historical lows, putting pressure on smelter profits and limiting production enthusiasm. In the medium term, the resumption meeting in Myanmar clarified the process, with an expected release of incremental supply in late June; the full resumption of the Bisie mine in Congo is approaching, raising market concerns about supply pressure in the second quarter. It is expected that tin prices will maintain a weak oscillating trend in the short term.

Target Recommendations

It is recommended to pay attention to Hunan Gold (002155.SZ), Huaxi Nonferrous (600301.SH), Shanjin International (000975.SZ), CHIFENG GOLD (600988.SH), Zijin Mining (601899.SH), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH), Shenhuo Co., Ltd. (000933.SZ), and Yun Aluminum (000807.SZ), among others.

Risk Warning

Significant fluctuations in the macro economy, demand not meeting expectations, supply release exceeding expectations, and company project progress not meeting expectations