Zhitong Decision Reference | May Market Performance Worth Looking Forward To

[Editor’s Market View]

On the last day of April, the Hang Seng Index rose, providing guidance for the May market.

Generally, the probability of overseas markets rising during long holidays is relatively high, with several catalysts for the US stock market:

1. Overseas AI giants reported better-than-expected data, soaring during the holiday. Companies like Microsoft and Mate, for example.

2. The US non-farm payroll data for April exceeded expectations, with an increase of 177,000, significantly surpassing the estimated increase of 138,000.

3. Trump is managing expectations, continuously releasing various so-called positive news about signing agreements.

However, this can only be viewed as a short-term perspective. Looking at Berkshire Hathaway's cash reserves, they have risen from about $334 billion at the end of 2024 to a record $347.7 billion, indicating that Buffett is still waiting for suitable investment opportunities.

On May 7th, local time, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision. Currently, the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to maintain its position.

For the domestic market, a stronger exchange rate is key. On May 5th, the offshore RMB briefly rose above the 7.20 mark during trading, the first time since November last year, reaching a nearly six-month high. Other Asian currencies also continued the upward momentum from last Friday, collectively surging, which indicates an increased probability of a US economic recession and potential future interest rate declines. The market generally anticipates further depreciation of the dollar.

The Ministry of Finance has set this year's deficit ratio at 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from last year, with a deficit scale reaching 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from last year, both the highest in recent years. This shows that there are still many promising tools in the policy toolbox.

In summary, after enduring the tariff war in April, the situation is overall favorable for us, and the May market is worth looking forward to.

In terms of hotspots, with the arrival of May, the release date of the Harmony OS PC version is also approaching, expected to be officially announced shortly after the May Day holiday. This move will completely eliminate dependence on the Windows system, building a self-controllable full-scenario ecosystem, thereby changing the landscape of the PC market. Related opportunities in Harmony OS and self-controllable software and hardware are emerging.

Xiaomi has open-sourced its large model MiMo, with a parameter scale of only 7B; its lightweight design is particularly suitable for edge deployment and can be deeply integrated into hardware such as mobile phones and cars in the future. This is beneficial for short-side application endpoints.

According to the National Local Co-construction Humanoid Robot Innovation Center, humanoid robots are expected to officially enter the general product series by 2026, based on the prediction that production or sales will reach 100,000 units by 2026. The prospects for robots are promising.

[This Week's Golden Stock]

UBTECH Robotics (09880)

In 2024, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 1.305 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.7%; gross profit of 374 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%. This is mainly due to the growth in revenue from educational intelligent robots and customized intelligent robot products.

By business segment, in 2024, revenue from educational intelligent robots and intelligent robot solutions is expected to reach 363 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%; revenue from logistics intelligent robots and intelligent robot solutions is expected to reach 322 million yuan; revenue from customized intelligent robots and intelligent robot solutions in other industries is expected to reach 141 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 126.1%; revenue from consumer-grade robots and other hardware devices is expected to reach 477 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 88.1%; other income is expected to be 3 million yuan By region, in 2024, the revenue from mainland China is expected to be 877 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.36%. The revenue from Hong Kong and overseas is expected to be 428 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 85.49%, indicating significant growth in Hong Kong and overseas regions. As of the end of 2024, the company's accounts receivable will be 914 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.57%, and inventory will be 461 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%. As of the end of 2024, the company's contract liabilities will be 61 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.21%, indicating that the company's order volume is continuously increasing. Focusing on industrial application scenarios, the company's Walker S series products have entered multiple automotive factories for practical training, completing high-repetitive tasks such as autonomous handling, quality inspection, and parts installation, and collaborating with automotive and 3C companies to create demonstration factories, showcasing "humanoid robot industrial scene solutions."

Additionally, the company has made progress in positioning and navigation (enhancing Vslam algorithm stability), machine vision (enhancing feature extraction and pose estimation), motion control (developing learning-based control technology), and AI integration, which will accelerate the industrialization of humanoid robots.

Key stocks to watch in the Hong Kong market include Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981), Sunny Optical Technology (02382), GDS Holdings Limited (09698), China Software International (00354), Weimob Inc. (02013), and Fourth Paradigm (06682).

【Industry Observation】

AI is the core area of the Sino-U.S. technology war: Previously, the U.S. government released a lengthy "AI Action Plan," and OpenAI and Anthropic called for a joint effort to block Chinese AI, restricting the flow of high-end GPU chips and model weights to China. Recently, the U.S. Congress began targeting DeepSeek; on April 24, the House Energy and Commerce Committee sent a letter to DeepSeek, requesting a response to a series of questions by May 28 at the latest.

The domestic AI industry is still accelerating its development: On April 28, Alibaba released its latest Qwen3 model; on April 29, Tencent restructured its mixed Yuan model R&D system, newly establishing a large language model department and a multimodal model department, increasing R&D investment; on April 30, DeepSeek open-sourced its latest mathematical theorem proving model DS-Prover-V2-671B; on April 30, leaders inspected the "Mosu Space" large model innovation ecological community in Shanghai. The highly anticipated DS-R2 is also expected to be released in May. Furthermore, more and more giants are embracing the MCP protocol, and AI applications are expected to flourish, as Agent and MCP will consume a significant amount of computing power.

The technology industry is set for intensive catalysis: In May, DS-R2 is expected to be released; major domestic internet companies are expected to initiate a new round of bidding (on April 30, Tencent's Shaoguan Zhenjiang computing power center was approved, with a total investment of 5 billion). Regarding Huawei, in May, Huawei Ascend CloudMatrix 384 is set to start shipping; on May 22, Huawei will hold a new product launch event (focusing on the new category of HarmonyOS PC, 0-1); on June 20, the Huawei Developer Conference HDC2025 is expected to release the HarmonyOS 6.0 developer preview version [Data Monitoring]

According to data released by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the total number of open contracts for the Hang Seng Index futures (May) is 90,379, with a net open position of 31,024 contracts. The settlement date for the Hang Seng Index futures is May 29, 2024.

From the distribution of bullish and bearish positions in the Hang Seng Index, at the 22,505 point level, the area of concentrated bearish certificates is close to the central axis, indicating that there is momentum for long positions in Hong Kong stocks. This week, the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting is expected, and Asian currencies have surged. The Hang Seng Index is bullish this week.

[Editor's Remarks]

Recently, market hotspots have clearly concentrated in the technology and consumer sectors, with promising market prospects in areas such as robotics, AI applications, electronic consumption, social services consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals. Consumption and self-control are facing a situation where the marginal catalysts are weakening due to tariff easing and weekend policy implementation, so we will observe whether the technology sector will regain strength