Last week, two major data exceeded expectations, and the market no longer believes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this week
Last week, the U.S. manufacturing ISM and non-farm employment data exceeded market expectations, showing no signs of economic paralysis. The strong ISM manufacturing index and employment data led to a significant reduction in market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the likelihood of a rate cut in June dropping from 75% to 38%, and the odds for a rate cut in July also decreasing by nearly half, with current expectations for a rate cut this week almost at 0
Last week's US manufacturing ISM and non-farm employment data were the first economic indicators following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs.
The market had generally expected the data to reflect early signs of economic paralysis: weak demand, declining new orders, and soft labor data, thereby increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
But that did not happen:
• The ISM manufacturing index exceeded expectations, showing an expansion in new orders and a slight improvement in output.
• Employment did not significantly decrease. Although internal factors (such as temporary workers and hours worked) indicated some pressure, overall employment data remained strong.
As shown in the chart, after the release of the two major data points, market expectations for interest rate cuts in the next three Federal Reserve meetings significantly decreased:
-
The likelihood of a rate cut on June 18 dropped from 75% to 38% in just one day,
-
The odds for July also fell by nearly half,
-
The market's expectations for a rate cut this week were already very low and are now almost close to 0.
