Looking at the February high and April low, senior technical analysts: US stocks will fall into a bear market in the coming months
Senior technical analyst Tom DeMark warned that the U.S. stock market could fall into a bear market in the coming months, with the S&P 500 index potentially dropping below the April low of 4835, a 20% correction. He pointed out that the market is currently fragile and could suffer significant damage if the global trade outlook changes. DeMark's prediction is based on his "countdown" research method, which could trigger a sell signal if two new highs occur, leading to a pullback in the index
Tom DeMark, a seasoned technical analyst who accurately predicted the major top in February and the major bottom in April this year, warned that the U.S. stock market is likely to decline again, with the S&P 500 index potentially falling below the intraday low of 4835 in April, representing a 20% correction from the February high, thus entering a bear market.
As a veteran analyst on Wall Street, Tom DeMark has provided consulting services to billionaire investors such as Paul Tudor Jones, Leon Cooperman, and Steve Cohen. He employs a market trend forecasting system based on mathematical relationships developed over half a century of chart studies, his creed is: the market peaks when good news arrives, and bottoms when bad news arrives.
This Friday, the S&P 500 index has risen for the ninth consecutive day, marking its longest rising cycle since 2004. According to DeMark's latest forecast, the market's recent peak may occur within a few days, and the current level of 5669 points for the S&P may exhaust buyers:
A peak is imminent. The technical damage has become too severe.
The stock market is currently very fragile, and any rapid changes in the global trade outlook could easily lead to severe impacts.
This prediction is based on DeMark's "Countdown" research method, which focuses on comparing the closing price of a security with its highest or lowest price from four days prior. When a certain pattern persists for nine times, it forms a "fatigue" cycle. The S&P 500 index just generated its seventh countdown on Thursday. DeMark is looking at a series of nine trading days' trends, which do not need to be consecutive but must be stronger than the trends from four trading days ago.
DeMark stated that this means that if the S&P 500 sees two new closing highs, it could trigger a sell signal. Once this occurs, the technical weakness will force the index to revert to its previous downward trend, ultimately pushing the S&P 500 below 4835.
DeMark said, "Historically, the market usually does not bottom on good news, just like the positive trade developments last month. Stocks typically bottom when everything is terrible, and everyone is forced to give up—but that has not happened yet. Stocks are just severely oversold, and it is time for a rebound. Since then, stocks have been technically struggling, and the underlying market is facing a significant risk of a downturn."
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