"Eye of the Storm" effect? Global stock markets painted a deep V in April, a tariff war unseen in a century "unscathed"!

Despite experiencing severe market turbulence caused by Trump's tariff policy, global stock markets still saw a slight increase in April, showcasing an astonishing "deep V" rebound.

The market recovery was largely due to several measures taken by the Trump administration to soften its trade policy, which led the market to believe that if economic data worsened and the market fell again, Trump would take further steps to alleviate tariffs.

There are also views that recession expectations have spurred the market's anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, once again evoking the market logic of "bad news is good news." However, some analysts remain pessimistic, believing that the market's rebound is merely a brief calm before the storm, as the market has lacked sufficient economic data to guide direction over the past week or so.

Global Market Monthly "Deep V": Almost Unscathed

On Wednesday, despite data released that showed the U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter of this year, U.S. stock indices staged a strong rebound. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.3%, the S&P 500 index slightly increased by 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite index fell by 0.1%.

Notably, the Dow and the S&P 500 have risen for seven consecutive trading days, with the S&P 500's increase over these seven days being the largest since November 2020.

Overall, in April, global stock markets experienced a thrilling "deep V" trend.

In April, the S&P 500 index only fell by 0.8%, the Dow fell by 3.2%, while the Nasdaq index even closed up by 0.9%. Although the monthly performance seemed calm, the process was akin to a roller coaster: the Nasdaq experienced a maximum drawdown of 16% in the first week of the month, followed by a rebound of about 18% in recent weeks.

Financial blog ZeroHedge joked that if you had taken the entire month of April off, you would never know that Trump initiated the largest tariff war in history, as global stock indices, after experiencing a 14% drop, ultimately recovered almost all losses by the end of the month.

U.S. Treasuries also experienced significant fluctuations, with the 10-year Treasury yield showing a wide swing of 50 basis points during the month, closing at 4.173% on Wednesday, slightly down from 4.245% a month ago, almost the same as at the end of March.

Apple's performance is also a microcosm of market volatility. Due to its reliance on overseas manufacturing, Apple's stock price once plummeted significantly, but rebounded sharply after the government announced exemptions for phones, computers, and other tech devices. Apple rose by 0.6% on Wednesday, down 4.3% for the month.

While stocks and bonds experienced severe fluctuations in April, other asset classes also showed significant divergence in performance. The US dollar fell more than 4% in April, marking the largest monthly decline since November 2022 and the second-largest monthly decline since September 2010.

At the same time, gold rose nearly 6%, marking its fourth consecutive month of gains. Bitcoin also performed strongly, rising 14% for the month, achieving its best monthly performance since the election-driven rally in November.

The crude oil market, however, showed weakness. WTI crude oil experienced its worst monthly performance since November 2021, closing at its lowest level since February 2021.

Divergent Markets: Contradictions in Soft and Hard Data, Institutional vs. Retail Investors

Two obvious divergence phenomena exist behind market performance.

First is the "soft-hard divergence" in US economic data. ZeroHedge points out that from a macro perspective, while the overall economic data in April disappointed the market, the real story is the significant divergence between strong "hard data" and collapsing "soft data."

This has left investors struggling to assess how tariffs will impact the economy, as they need to weigh the pessimistic consumer sentiment data against robust but lagging household spending and business investment reports.

Second is the divergence in market participants' attitudes—institutional investors and retail investors exhibit starkly different market positions.

Despite the S&P 500 index rising 14% since its intraday low on April 7, with the price-to-earnings ratio rebounding to over 20 times, the net leverage ratio of US fundamental long-short funds, although significantly rebounding from absolute lows, remains at a relatively low level overall, indicating that institutional investors remain cautious.

Meanwhile, retail investors in the US stock market continue to aggressively increase their holdings, especially in the Nasdaq market, reflecting the optimistic sentiment of retail investors.

Market Logic Behind the Deep V Rebound

The market's recovery is largely due to several measures taken by the Trump administration to soften its trade policies, including a 90-day suspension of tariffs and exemptions for technology products.

This has made investors feel the Trump administration's sensitivity to market turmoil, leading many to believe that if economic data worsens and the market falls again, Trump will take further measures to alleviate tariffs.

Goldman Sachs analyst Chris Hussey summarized the current market environment, noting that market volatility and uncertainty could suppress investment in 2025 and further drag down US economic activity:

"The second Trump administration introduced a series of measures, including a significant increase in tariffs, restructuring the federal government through DOGE, and strict immigration controls. All three measures could potentially suppress growth, with two of them (tariffs and immigration controls) also likely to drive up inflation. This combination—slowing growth and rising inflation—is not a good mix for stocks and is also a confusing combination for bonds."

The continuously released weak economic data has also fueled market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, once again evoking the market logic of "bad news is good news."

ZeroHedge pointed out: "Bonds, oil, and copper prices are all shouting 'recession,' while U.S. inflation data is rapidly declining... and stocks are soaring as expectations for rate cuts rise... In other words, we are back to 'bad news is (good news for the stock market).'"

However, some analysts are not optimistic, believing that the market rebound is merely a brief calm before the storm, simply due to a lack of sufficient economic data to guide direction over the past week or so.

Jeff Blazek, Co-Chief Investment Officer of Multi-Asset at Neuberger Berman, stated that the recent stock market rise "is actually just a phenomenon of the eye of the storm." "We just haven't had much data to reference for about a week."

Good News and Bad News for U.S. Stock Bottom Fishers

For investors bottom-fishing in U.S. stocks, the V-shaped rebound in April brings both good news and bad news.

The good news is: Since 1970, in the cases of the 10 largest monthly drawdowns in the S&P index, all 10 of those major declines turned into gains in the same month, and 9 of them were up in the following 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months;

But the bad news cannot be ignored: The only exception occurred in December 1973, during the period of "Nixon Shock" when the U.S. experienced stagflation.

Currently, many analysts are comparing Trump's tariff shock to the "Nixon Shock" of that time.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market has risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investment based on this is at one's own risk