U.S. trade negotiations are expected to make progress, gold prices retreat, and copper prices rebound

According to Zhitong Finance APP, copper prices rose after recording the largest single-day drop in nearly a month, while gold prices further declined from last week's historical high—marking a third consecutive day of decline. This was due to Trump stating that progress had been made in reaching agreements with countries targeted by tariffs, which could reduce the risks facing global economic growth and metal demand, thereby suppressing the demand for safe-haven assets. London copper futures rose to $9,177 per ton, having fallen over 3% on Wednesday. Gold prices briefly dropped by 0.6%, closing around $3,275 per ounce on Wednesday; as of the time of writing, spot gold further declined by 0.5% to $3,273.40 per ounce.

Despite earlier data showing that U.S. imports surged significantly before the tariffs took effect, the U.S. economy contracted for the first time since 2022 in the first quarter of this year. The sluggish U.S. economy has also prompted traders to increase expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates four times by 25 basis points this year to help prevent an economic recession. Lower interest rates are generally favorable for gold, as gold does not pay interest; at the same time, expectations of a weaker dollar due to Fed rate cuts also support higher copper prices.

Trump stated in a speech that he sees a "very good chance" of reaching an agreement with China, although any agreement must meet U.S. conditions. Additionally, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated that the Trump administration is about to announce the first batch of agreements that will reduce planned tariffs on certain countries. This has also alleviated some concerns about the global trade outlook.

Gold has risen about 25% this year, primarily due to President Trump's rapidly changing trade policies disrupting the market and raising concerns about a global economic slowdown, prompting investors to flock to safe-haven assets. The rise in gold prices is also supported by factors such as inflows into gold ETFs, central bank purchases, and signs of strong speculative demand in China. Looking ahead, the U.S. non-farm payroll report to be released on Friday may reveal the initial impact of Trump's trade policies on the economy.

Meanwhile, copper prices fell 6% last month, marking the worst performance since mid-2022, as signs emerged that the global trade war began to harm the economy, with the U.S. economy contracting in the first quarter, and the demand for copper is often closely tied to economic conditions. At the same time, Washington is advancing a study that could lead to tariffs on metals imported into the U.S. On the supply side, Peru's two largest copper mines became the target of community protests this week, raising concerns about production disruptions for this third-largest copper producer