Trade negotiations hope to support a major turnaround in U.S. stocks, with the S&P rising for seven consecutive days, Microsoft and Meta jumping in after-hours trading, and crude oil experiencing its largest monthly drop in over three years

The hope from trade negotiations supported U.S. stocks for the second consecutive day, offsetting concerns triggered by the contraction of the U.S. economy in the first quarter, helping U.S. stocks make a significant turnaround on the last trading day of April. The main OPEC+ production cut country, Saudi Arabia, hinted at a policy shift, leading to a sharp decline in international crude oil prices, exacerbating the downward trend for the entire month.

The fluctuations in U.S. stocks caused by tariffs and trade negotiations continued until the end of the month. Economic concerns triggered by data nearly halted the upward momentum of U.S. stocks on Wednesday, but after news of U.S.-China engagement emerged, the two major U.S. stock indices turned positive.

Due to "import rush" before tariffs and weak consumer spending, the U.S. economy contracted for the first time in three years, with the GDP in the first quarter showing an annualized quarter-on-quarter preliminary decline of 0.3%, which was worse than expected; the April ADP report, known as the "little non-farm," showed an increase of 62,000 private sector jobs, nearly half of Wall Street's expectations. The Fed's favorite inflation indicator continued to cool in March, but the recent surge in U.S. prices has begun to show, increasing the risk of stagflation.

The weak economic data released before the U.S. stock market opened raised expectations for interest rate cuts, with traders fully pricing in four 25 basis point rate cuts by the Fed this year. After the GDP and ADP data were released, U.S. Treasury yields generally declined, and U.S. stocks opened lower, with the three major indices at one point down nearly 2% in early trading.

During the midday trading session, CCTV's new media Yuyuantan Tian published that the U.S. side had actively reached out to the Chinese side through multiple channels to discuss tariffs. U.S. stocks accelerated their rebound, with the two major U.S. stock indices, the S&P and Dow Jones, turning positive by the end of the day, while the Nasdaq erased most of its losses.

Among individual stocks, Super Micro Computer, which reported preliminary earnings that fell short after the market closed on Tuesday, and Snap, which failed to provide guidance for the current quarter due to tariff impacts on its advertising business, both saw double-digit declines. The two tech giants, Microsoft and Meta, which released earnings reports after the market closed on Wednesday, exceeded expectations for the first quarter, with Meta significantly raising its capital expenditure guidance for the year, leading to a rise in their stock prices after hours.

Crude oil was the biggest loser among major asset classes on Wednesday. Media reports indicated that Saudi officials hinted in recent weeks that they could withstand long-term low oil prices and stated that Saudi Arabia was unwilling to support the oil market through further production cuts. International crude oil prices at one point fell by as much as 4%, ultimately recording the largest monthly decline in nearly three and a half years Gold narrowed most of its losses after the release of U.S. economic data, maintaining a monthly cumulative increase for the year.

The three major U.S. stock indices fell nearly 2% at the open, but after the midday post from Yuyuantan, the losses continued to narrow. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones turned positive in the closing hours, with the Dow fluctuating over 1,000 points, the S&P rebounding 2.7% from its daily low, and the Nasdaq, which fell nearly 3% in the morning, erasing most of its losses. AMD and Snap both fell over 10%, while after-hours, Microsoft and Meta rose 9% and 6%, respectively.

• The three major U.S. stock indices: The Dow, which fell over 780 points in the morning, closed up 141.74 points. The S&P 500, which fell 2.3% in the morning, slightly closed up, both continuing to refresh highs since April 2. The Nasdaq, which fell 2.9% in the morning, closed down less than 0.1%.
• In April, the S&P fell a cumulative 0.76%, the Dow fell a cumulative 3.17%, and the Russell 2000 fell a cumulative 2.38%, all declining for three consecutive months. The Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 rebounded after two months of decline, with cumulative increases of 0.85% and 1.52%, respectively.
• At the beginning of April, after Trump announced the so-called "Liberation Day" with reciprocal tariffs, U.S. stocks plummeted. Later, Trump postponed some tariffs, leading to a rebound in U.S. stocks. As news of trade negotiations and consultations with other countries emerged, U.S. stocks gradually erased most of their losses.

• U.S. stock ETFs: The biotechnology ETF rose about 1.5%, leading U.S. industry ETFs, while the energy sector ETF fell 2.7%, performing the worst; from January to April, the airline industry ETF fell about 22%, the semiconductor ETF fell over 13%, and the consumer discretionary ETF fell about 12%.

• The "Magnificent Seven" narrowed their losses during the session, with a few stocks rising. Tesla, which fell over 7% at one point in the morning, closed down 3.4%. Amazon, which fell over 4% in the morning, closed down 1.6%. Meta, which fell nearly 4.5% at one point, closed down nearly 1%. Alphabet closed down 0.7%, and Nvidia, which initially fell over 4.5%, closed down 0.09%. Apple, which fell over 2% in the morning, closed up 0.6%, and Microsoft closed up 0.3%.
• After the earnings report was released, Meta rose 6% at one point, and Microsoft rose 9% at one point.
• The "Magnificent Seven" had mixed performances in April, with Tesla up nearly 8.9%, Microsoft up 5.3%, Alphabet up 3%, Nvidia up 0.5%, while Meta fell nearly 4.8%, Apple fell 4.3%, and Amazon fell 3.1%
• Chip stocks: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 0.8%, rebounding after two consecutive declines, with a cumulative drop of 0.9% in April. Intel fell 1.2%; Qualcomm, which rose 1.1%, announced first-quarter revenue above expectations after hours but warned that tariffs would impact revenue, causing Qualcomm to drop over 6% after hours.
• AI concept stocks mostly fell: Advanced Micro Devices fell 11.5%, Applovin fell nearly 6.8%, C3.ai and Dell both fell over 2%, while Palantir rose 2%.
• Chinese concept stocks experienced two consecutive declines, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) falling nearly 1%, continuing to drop from the high set on Monday, which was the highest since April 3, with a cumulative drop of 9.8% in April.
• Among popular Chinese concept stocks, JD.com fell 0.8%, Baidu fell 1.8%, Nio fell 4.3%, Pony.ai fell 5.2%, and Yum China fell 7.3%; while Tencent ADR rose 4.8%, Xiaomi ADR rose 1.2%, Li Auto rose 1.2%, and NetEase and Alibaba rose at most 0.5%.
• In other key stocks, Starbucks fell nearly 5%, with the company's second-quarter global sales decline exceeding expectations; Snap fell 12.4%; copper prices plummeted, affecting the American copper giant Freeport-McMoRan, which fell 3.1%.

The Eurozone's first-quarter GDP unexpectedly rebounded, with Germany and France barely achieving growth, but weak economic data from the U.S. weighed down, causing the pan-European stock index to briefly turn negative during the session, ultimately rising for seven consecutive days, but failing to erase the monthly decline, marking two consecutive months of decline.

• The pan-European stock index rose for seven consecutive days, continuing to reach a new four-week high, but still showed a cumulative decline for the month, presenting a V-shaped trend. The Stoxx 600 Index reached a new high for three consecutive days since April 2, with a cumulative drop of 1.21% in April.

• Among the Stoxx 600 sectors, the basic resources sector, which includes mining stocks, fell nearly 2.8%, with component stocks dragged down by the sharp decline in copper prices; Glencore, listed in the UK, fell 9.1%; the automotive sector fell 1.2%. According to CCTV News, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order to soften some auto tariffs, but as trade frictions intensified, several European automakers, such as Mercedes-Benz and Stellantis, withdrew their performance guidance for this year.
• Among the sectors, the oil and gas sector, which was hit hard by the sharp decline in crude oil prices, fell nearly 11% in April, performing the worst, while retail and interest-sensitive real estate rose nearly 6%
• Major European Country Indices: On Wednesday, UK stocks rose for 13 consecutive trading days, German stocks increased for seven days in a row, French stocks rebounded after a decline on Tuesday, while Italian stocks fell after five consecutive increases, and Spanish stocks declined for two consecutive days. In April, stock indices in various countries showed mixed results, with UK, French, and Italian stocks declining for two months, while German and Spanish stocks rebounded after a decline in March.

After the release of US GDP, US Treasury yields initially surged before quickly retreating, with the two-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to interest rates, hitting a three-week low, continuing to decline for four months this year.

• US Treasuries: The yield on the US 10-year benchmark Treasury bond quickly rebounded after the release of US GDP and ADP, testing 4.23% to refresh the daily high, but soon fell back below 4.20%. At the end of the US stock market, it briefly dropped below 4.14%, approaching the recent low, and by the end of the bond market, it was around 4.16%, down about 1 basis point on the day, marking a decline for seven consecutive trading days, with a cumulative drop of about 5 basis points in April, returning to the downward trend seen in February after being flat in March.
• The yield on the two-year US Treasury bond briefly rose above 3.66% when the US GDP was released, but quickly declined, approaching 3.60% at the end of the US stock market, refreshing the low since April 7 for two consecutive days, and by the end of the bond market, it was around 3.60%, down about 5 basis points on the day, marking a decline for five consecutive trading days, with a cumulative drop of about 28 basis points in April, continuing to decline for four months.

• European Bonds: European government bond prices rose overall for two consecutive days, with yields further declining. By the end of the bond market, the yield on the UK 10-year benchmark government bond was around 4.44%, down 4 basis points on the day; the yield on the benchmark 10-year German government bond was about 2.44%, down 5 basis points on the day.
• In April, European bond yields generally fell back after rebounding in March, with the 10-year UK bond yield cumulatively declining by about 24 basis points and the 10-year German bond yield cumulatively declining by about 29 basis points. The two-year German bond yield cumulatively dropped by over 36 basis points in April, marking the worst monthly performance since December 2023.

After the release of US GDP, the intraday increase of the US dollar index slightly narrowed, while the intraday increase of US stocks expanded, refreshing the daily high, still set to decline for four consecutive months, continuing to accumulate losses into 2025. As the dollar weakened, non-US currencies such as the euro rose sharply in April, with the euro against the dollar achieving the largest monthly increase in over three years. Bitcoin rose over 10% in April.

• US Dollar Index: By the end of the forex market on Wednesday, the US dollar index was above 99.40, up over 0.2% on the day, with a cumulative decline of 4.55% in April; the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the dollar against ten other currencies, rose 0.1% on the day, with a cumulative decline of about 4% in April, marking the largest monthly decline since November 2022, with both the dollar index and the Bloomberg index rising for two consecutive days, and both set to decline for four consecutive months in April

• Among non-US currencies, by the end of the trading day, the Japanese yen fell for two consecutive days, with the USD/JPY accumulating a decline of 4.6% in April, marking the largest monthly drop in nine months; the EUR/USD accumulated a rise of over 4.7% in April, the largest monthly increase in nearly two and a half years since November 2022.
• The offshore renminbi (CNH) fluctuated between gains and losses against the US dollar during the day, reaching a daily high of 7.2598 before the European stock market opened, up 163 points from the day's low in the Asian market. The US stock market approached the day's low in early trading, slightly turned positive at noon, and then turned negative by the end of the day. At 4:59 PM Beijing time on May 1, it was reported at 7.2698 yuan, down 19 points from Tuesday's New York close, with an accumulated decline of 39 points in April, retreating after three consecutive months of gains.
• Bitcoin (BTC) accelerated its decline after the US GDP was announced, with the US stock market briefly falling below $93,000, down over $2,000 and more than 2% from the intra-day high in the European stock market. By the close of the US stock market, it was below $94,300, having dropped over 1% in the last 24 hours and risen over 14% in the last month.

In the US stock market at noon, reports emerged that Saudi Arabia hinted at its ability to withstand long-term low oil prices. Following this news, international crude oil briefly fell by 4%, reaching its lowest intraday level since April 10. April saw a significant drop in crude oil prices, marking the largest monthly decline since November 2021.

• Crude oil has closed lower for three consecutive days, with WTI June crude oil futures down 3.66%, closing at $58.21 per barrel; Brent June crude oil futures fell by $1.13, a decline of nearly 1.76%, closing at $63.12 per barrel.
• In April, crude oil prices fell back after a rebound in March, marking the second consecutive month of decline in the last five months, reflecting the impact of the tariff war escalation between the two major economies after Trump announced reciprocal tariffs. US oil has accumulated a decline of over 17.95%, while Brent oil has declined by 15.58%.
• US gasoline and natural gas futures both fell. NYMEX May gasoline futures closed down 1.65%, at $2.0370 per gallon, marking three consecutive declines; NYMEX June natural gas futures, which had risen for three consecutive days, fell over 1.77%, closing at $3.3260 per million British thermal units, with an accumulated decline of about 21.87% in April.

The US GDP adds hope for a Federal Reserve rate cut. After the GDP announcement, gold gradually narrowed most of its losses. Concerns about a global economic slowdown intensified, and investors engaged in arbitrage trading closed their positions before China's Labor Day holiday. New York copper briefly fell over 7% on Wednesday.

• Gold: COMEX June gold futures fell over 1.7% when it refreshed its daily low during the European stock market, closing down 0.43% at $3,319.1 per ounce, marking two consecutive declines, with an accumulated rise of over 5.3% in April, rising for four consecutive months. By the close of the US stock market, spot gold was below $3,294.40, down about 0.7% for the day, with an accumulated rise of about 5.5% in April

• Copper Futures: COMEX July copper futures fell for four consecutive days. Before the release of U.S. GDP, it hit a daily low of $4.524 during the session, down 7.2% intraday, and closed down 5.4% at $4.609 per pound. It fell over 6% in April after rising for three consecutive months