Prologis: With the appreciation of the yen and uncertain economic prospects, the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged
Prologis expects the Bank of Japan to maintain interest rates at this week's meeting due to the appreciation of the yen and uncertain economic outlook. The market is concerned that potential tariff measures could impact economic growth, leading the central bank to delay interest rate hikes. Although the yield curve has steepened and short-term bonds have performed well, there has not yet been strong buying in the market. Investors need to pay attention to trade agreements that may reduce risk premiums and changes in the USD/JPY exchange rate. In the medium term, developments in U.S. policy will be an important factor influencing the yen
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Zhong Xiaoyang, co-manager of the Polyus Multi-Asset Income Bond Strategy Fund, indicated that during the increased market volatility in April, when U.S. Treasury bonds and risk assets showed a positive correlation, the Japanese yen became one of the better-performing safe-haven assets. The appreciation of the yen, coupled with market concerns that potential tariff measures could impact economic growth, led the Bank of Japan to delay further interest rate hikes. Given the uncertain outlook for economic growth, it is expected that the Bank of Japan will maintain interest rates at this week's meeting.
Polyus stated that the global bond yield curve has generally become steeper, as investors focus on the impact of slowing economic growth, with short-term bonds in developed markets performing better. The Japanese bond market is no exception. However, the recent yield curve appears overly steep, partly due to speculative trading. For long-term Japanese government bonds to perform more robustly, there needs to be more demand from life insurance companies, especially as the Bank of Japan is expected to continue reducing bond purchases. Some local market participants believe that bond yields are beginning to approach more attractive levels, but there has yet to be strong buying in the market.
Recently, the appreciation of the yen has exceeded the level reflected by the USD/JPY interest rate differential, with uncertainties surrounding tariffs adding a risk premium to U.S. assets. Investors need to closely monitor potential trade agreements that could reduce this risk premium, as well as how the USD/JPY exchange rate may return to the interest rate differential level. If volatility in the U.S. Treasury market decreases, the long positions in yen established due to safe-haven demand may limit the yen's upward momentum in the short term.
In the medium term, developments in U.S. policy will remain an important factor influencing the yen. This quarter's fiscal plan and reasonable tariff agreements will help steer the economy towards stagflation rather than recession, with the former being more likely. However, the longer the duration of unclear U.S. economic policies, the higher the probability of economic downturn
