As Trump's second term approaches its first hundred days, the US stock market faces its worst start in half a century

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, as the 100-day mark of President Trump's second term approaches, the U.S. stock market is experiencing a historically low performance. The S&P 500 index has fallen nearly 8%, marking one of the worst market performances within the first 100 days of a new administration in over 50 years. During the same period, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped by 7.5%, while the NASDAQ Composite Index has plummeted by 11.5%, recording the worst 100-day performance since George W. Bush took office in 2001.

Historically, the first 100 days of a U.S. president's term are often seen as an important window for policy advancement and market confidence. Since 1929, the S&P 500 has averaged a 3.8% increase in the first 100 days of a new president's term, while the Dow has risen by 4%. However, the performance during this 100-day period in 2025 has diverged significantly from historical trends.

Wall Street was initially optimistic but was "doused with cold water" by policies

Before Trump's inauguration on January 20, the market was generally optimistic about his continued push for tax cuts and deregulation, which are favorable for economic growth. The S&P 500 even recorded the strongest start for a president's first term since 2013. However, the anticipated "dividends" have yet to materialize, replaced instead by Trump's rapid and aggressive trade policies, which have caused market sentiment to plummet.

On April 2, Trump announced in the White House Rose Garden the imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" on imports from about 90 countries, with tariffs on Chinese goods raised to 145%. This move immediately triggered severe market turbulence. The S&P 500 plummeted 12.1% over the next four trading days, marking the most significant four-day decline since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and it briefly approached a technical bear market.

The NASDAQ quickly entered bear market territory, while both the S&P 500 and the Dow fell into correction territory. In addition to the tariff impacts, the federal government's wave of layoffs and large-scale deportations of illegal immigrants further exacerbated market concerns about the U.S. economic outlook.

"Suspending tariffs" led to a rebound, but market volatility will persist

On April 9, Trump announced the suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" except for those on China, providing the market with a brief respite. The S&P 500 surged 9.5% that day, marking the largest single-day increase since October 2008. Subsequently, the S&P gradually recovered some ground and re-emerged from the correction zone after three consecutive days of strong gains last week.

However, investors have not yet recovered from the severe volatility. Callie Cox, Chief Market Strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, pointed out, "The first 100 days should have allowed the market to understand the new government's policy direction and adjust accordingly, but this extreme volatility may serve as a 'health reminder' for investors from the past two years of a bull market."

She stated, "The initial shock is always the most painful... but after experiencing these 100 days, we are also beginning to prepare mentally for what may happen next."

What comes next? Historical data provides some clues

According to CFRA Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall, since World War II, the S&P 500 has averaged a 3.2% increase in the second 100 days of a president's term, with a 65% probability of rising. However, if the performance in the first 100 days is below average, the stock market averages a 5.5% decline for the year, with only a 33% chance of rising; If performance remains poor in the next 100 days, there will be a 3.7% decline for the year, with only a 30% chance of an increase.

Mark Malek, Chief Investment Officer of Siebert Financial, also pointed out: "The impact of tariffs on corporate earnings and economic data will gradually become apparent in the next 100 to 200 days. Even if policies are temporarily unclear, the market will ultimately face substantial economic pressure."

As of the time of writing, U.S. stocks have rebounded in the short term, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up over 250 points, and the S&P and NASDAQ up 0.3% respectively. Despite concerns about the performance over the past hundred days, market trends remain uncertain, and investors need to prepare for greater uncertainties in the future while observing policy implementation and economic data