U.S. job openings fall to a nearly four-year low as labor market demand weakens

According to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday, the number of job vacancies in the United States fell to 7.19 million in March, the lowest level since September of last year, significantly down from the revised 7.48 million in February, and below the expectations of all economists surveyed by foreign media. This figure is close to the levels seen at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, reflecting a notable cooling in companies' willingness to hire amid increasing economic uncertainty.

The data indicates that labor market demand is weakening, with companies generally pausing spending plans while waiting for clearer insights into President Trump's policy direction. Currently, the Trump administration continues to push for large-scale tariff policies, with many economists warning that this could suppress economic growth and increase the risk of the U.S. falling into recession.

Despite the overall decline in job vacancies, there are still some positive signals in the report. For example, the number of layoffs in March fell to the lowest level since June of last year, and total hiring remained stable. Additionally, the "quit rate" indicator rose slightly, reaching a new high since July of last year. The quit rate reflects employees' confidence in the labor market and is often seen as an important signal of labor market health.

The Trump administration's efforts to reduce the size of the federal government have begun to have a noticeable impact on the labor market. According to data from human resources consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the number of layoff announcements in the U.S. tripled year-on-year in March, primarily driven by policies related to the "Government Efficiency Department." Summary data on layoff plans for April is expected to be released this Thursday.

Despite recent data indicating signs of weakness in the labor market, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the overall employment market is in a "solid" state. The market widely expects that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at their current levels during next week's policy meeting. Powell recently pointed out that controlling inflation is a key prerequisite for achieving the "maximum employment" goal. The current tariff policies may push prices higher, exacerbating inflationary pressures, which is one of the main reasons for rising concerns about economic recession.

The "ratio of job vacancies to unemployed persons" (an important indicator reflecting the balance of labor supply and demand) that Federal Reserve officials closely monitor also fell to 1.0 in March, the lowest level since September of last year. During the peak in 2022, this ratio reached as high as 2:1, indicating a labor shortage at that time.

Although the JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data is one of the important indicators for measuring the labor market, some economists have expressed doubts about its accuracy, mainly due to issues such as low survey response rates and significant data revisions. According to similar indicators from job posting website Indeed, hiring demand also showed a downward trend in March.

Another report released on Tuesday indicated that the U.S. consumer confidence index has declined for the fifth consecutive month, marking the longest decline since the 2008 financial crisis. At the same time, the U.S. trade deficit in goods unexpectedly widened to a record high in March, indicating that companies accelerated imports of goods ahead of the tariff policies taking effect, further suppressing domestic economic momentum Some economists have therefore lowered their growth expectations for the U.S. GDP in the first quarter