"Soft data" has plummeted! The Federal Reserve's five regional manufacturing surveys have all fallen into negative territory
The manufacturing survey indices of the five major regions in the United States have all fallen into negative territory, with an average value of -17.5, indicating a historic recession. Specific data includes: Dallas Fed -35.8, Philadelphia Fed -26.4, Richmond Fed -13.0, Empire Manufacturing -8.1, Kansas City Fed -4.0. The contraction in manufacturing signals weakened corporate profits, employment gaps, soft consumer spending, and accumulated credit pressure
The average manufacturing index of major regions (Dallas Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Richmond Fed, Empire Manufacturing, Kansas City Fed) has currently fallen to -17.5, deeply entrenched in a historically recessionary zone, among which:
• Dallas Fed: -35.8
• Philadelphia Fed: -26.4
• Richmond Fed: -13.0
• Empire Manufacturing: -8.1
• Kansas City Fed: -4.0
Manufacturing is the economic early warning system.
Historically, when manufacturing experiences such a sharp contraction:
• Corporate profits weaken.
• Employment begins to show cracks.
• A few months later, consumer spending starts to weaken.
• Credit pressure quietly accumulates beneath risk assets.
