US Stock Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Mixed, Trump to Deliver 100-Day Administration Speech

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of April 29 (Tuesday), U.S. stock index futures are mixed before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.34%, S&P 500 futures are down 0.14%, and Nasdaq futures are down 0.26%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 0.62%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.18%, the French CAC40 index is down 0.33%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 0.29%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is down 1.58%, priced at $61.07 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 1.62%, priced at $63.74 per barrel.

Market News

Trump's first 100 days in office, what "secret weapons" are left for the next hundred days? On April 29, local time, U.S. President Trump will mark his 100th day in office. It is reported that Trump will hold a rally in Michigan on April 29 to celebrate his 100 days in office and deliver a speech. White House officials stated that this speech will focus on achievements in governance over the past 100 days, such as southern border management and inflation control; in the next 100 days, Trump will take more executive actions, focusing on trade agreements and peace negotiations, and is prepared with many "secret weapons" (torpedoes under the water). However, a recent joint poll released by U.S. media shows that Trump's approval rating after 100 days in office has hit a new low in 80 years, with only 39% of respondents approving of his performance. U.S. public opinion believes that since Trump's return to the White House, domestic political divisions have intensified, and social rifts have deepened; internationally, it has caused market turmoil and disrupted global order. By any standard, Trump's first 100 days in office are considered an "epic failure."

JPMorgan turns "bullish," short-term outlook for U.S. stocks is positive but warns the "honeymoon period" is only a few weeks. JPMorgan's trading team has recently shifted to a tactical bullish stance on U.S. stocks, believing that favorable factors such as tech giants' earnings reports and progress on trade agreements will drive the recently struggling U.S. stocks to continue rebounding. Nevertheless, the bank emphasizes that this upward momentum may fade within a few weeks, and the negative impact of U.S. tariffs will begin to weigh on the economy in the coming months. Andrew Tyler, the global market intelligence head at JPMorgan, who previously held a "tactically bearish" stance, and his team pointed out that their latest forecast differs from past bullish views, primarily based on technical factors rather than purely fundamental analysis. They wrote: "Light positions, low liquidity combined with low investor participation mean that as long as there are no negative news such as tariff escalations or surging bond yields, the market is likely to continue a moderate rise "They added that the potential for a trade agreement has made the risk-reward ratio more favorable. However, they also warned that 'the negative impact of the trade war on the real economy will take 1-2 months to manifest.' This aligns with the views of major Wall Street forecasters, who generally expect U.S. economic data to deteriorate.

Morgan Stanley sounds the alarm on the S&P 5500 point false break: Stick to investing in quality assets amid volatility. Last week, the S&P 500 index briefly broke through the 5500 point resistance set by Morgan Stanley, mainly driven by optimism over potential tariff reductions between China and the U.S. and a shift in Federal Reserve policy. However, analysts warned that this breakout is still fragile. Michael Wilson, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist and Chief Investment Officer at Morgan Stanley, noted in a report: 'To sustain a breakout in the 5600-5650 point range, four catalysts need to make substantial progress: meaningful tariff reductions, a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve, long-term interest rates below 4% without accompanying recession signals, and upward revisions in earnings expectations.' In an uncertain environment, Morgan Stanley recommends doubling down on quality stocks that have earnings resilience and are undervalued by the market. Wilson stated: 'This is not a bet on cyclical industries—rather, it is about selecting companies whose pricing has already reflected an ISM below 44 level and whose historical drawdowns are smaller than during past recession periods.'

Tariff pressures cannot stop 'AI Alpha'! The world's largest asset management firm supports AI investment themes. The stock analyst team from BlackRock, the largest asset management firm globally, urged investors to maintain a moderate exposure to AI-driven stocks (if there is no exposure, they should consider buying on dips). Despite the recent dramatic fluctuations in global trade policies, the firm emphasized that the aggressive tariff policies initiated by the Trump administration have not diminished the long-term investment return growth potential inherent in the AI investment theme and the so-called 'AI investment logic.' According to BlackRock's stock analysis team, the tariff policies led by the Trump administration cannot hinder the 'excess alpha attributes' brought by AI investment logic, and 'AI-driven tech companies with strong profitability and robust balance sheets are best positioned to navigate the current macro environment.'

Crude oil futures show a strange 'smile curve'! Morgan Stanley interprets: Short-term supply tightness, long-term surplus. Morgan Stanley stated that the global oil market is currently in a very rare state, with futures prices indicating recent supply tightness while also signaling a 'meaningful surplus' in the future. Analysts at Morgan Stanley, including Martjin Rats and Charlotte Firkins, noted in a report: 'The current shape of the Brent crude oil futures curve is unusual: recent contracts slope downward, then slope upward. This is very unusual, in fact, there are almost no historical precedents.' Currently, Brent crude prices for the next few months remain higher than those for subsequent months, a pattern known as spot premium, which is seen as bullish because it indicates that traders are willing to pay a premium for more immediate crude oil. However, by 2026, the curve is expected to shift to the opposite structure, known as futures premium Analysts stated: "The futures premium after the ninth contract indicates that oil prices will weaken rapidly later this year, as slowing demand and strong supply growth will lead to an oversupply. In about 30 years of historical data, the forward curve has never been as 'smiling' as it is now." Morgan Stanley stated that it expects the global benchmark Brent crude oil price to fall to a low of $60 per barrel later this year.

Individual Stock News

General Motors (GM.US) Q1 performance exceeded expectations, but withdrew 2025 guidance and suspended stock buybacks. The financial report showed that General Motors' Q1 sales were $44 billion, better than the market expectation of $43.2 billion; operating profit was $3.5 billion, better than the market expectation of $3.4 billion; earnings per share were $2.78, better than the market expectation of $2.68. General Motors' strong Q1 sales were due to dealers wanting to increase inventory before the auto tariffs under the Trump administration take effect. The company's CFO stated that the Q1 performance "undoubtedly benefited from the advance demand from customers (i.e., dealers) purchasing vehicles before potential tariffs." Additionally, the company stated that investors should not rely on its 2025 performance guidance given in January, as it still does not know how to quantify all the potential impacts of the changing tariff policies. The company also suspended stock buybacks until there is more certainty. The company postponed its earnings call, as sources indicated that Trump would adjust auto tariff policies on Tuesday to mitigate the impact of those policies. As of the time of publication, General Motors' stock fell about 2% in pre-market trading on Tuesday.

Coca-Cola (KO.US) Q1 earnings exceeded expectations, stating that tariff impacts are "controllable." The financial report showed that Coca-Cola's Q1 revenue decreased by 2% year-on-year to $11.13 billion, slightly below the market expectation of $11.16 billion, due to weak demand in the North American market and foreign exchange headwinds, which may have been exacerbated by the Trump administration's tariff policies. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.73, slightly above the market expectation of $0.72. The company adjusted its full-year performance guidance, expecting a 2%-3% adverse impact on comparable revenue from foreign exchange, as well as slight adverse impacts from acquisitions, divestitures, and structural changes. The company also expects that the percentage growth of comparable earnings per share will also be adversely affected by 5%-6% from foreign exchange. However, the company's CEO stated: "Despite facing some pressure in key developed markets, the strength of our global network enables us to successfully navigate a complex external environment." The company stated that it expects the impact of current trade policies to be controllable, although this may affect the cost structure of certain products in its markets.

PayPal (PYPL.US) Q1 performance was mixed, maintaining full-year earnings guidance due to global economic uncertainty. The financial report showed that PayPal's Q1 revenue grew by 1% year-on-year to $7.8 billion, below the market expectation of $7.85 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $1.33, better than the market expectation of $1.16. Q1 total payment volume grew by 3%, and the number of active accounts grew by 2%. The company's CEO stated that this marks the fifth consecutive quarter of profit growth. However, the company maintained its full-year performance guidance given in February, citing "global economic uncertainty." The company expects the adjusted earnings per share for the year to be in the range of $4.95 to $5.10. As of the time of writing, PayPal fell over 3% in pre-market trading on Tuesday.

Spotify (SPOT.US) facing a painful period? Q1 profits fall short of expectations, but subscription users show strong growth. The financial report shows that Spotify's Q1 revenue was €4.2 billion ($4.8 billion), a year-on-year increase of 15%, in line with guidance and analyst expectations. Operating profit was €509 million, below the expected €548 million. Spotify stated that profits were dragged down by social costs exceeding €76 million—social costs are defined as payroll taxes related to employee wages and benefits, and the profit decline overshadowed the strong growth in subscription users in the first three months of this year. The company reported a 12% increase in subscription users, reaching 268 million, higher than the analyst expectation of 265.2 million. For the second quarter of this year, Spotify expects users to reach 273 million, with operating profit of €539 million. As of the time of writing, Spotify fell over 4% in pre-market trading on Tuesday.

Pfizer (PFE.US) Q1 revenue declines 8% year-on-year, maintains full-year performance guidance but warns it does not account for tariff impacts. The financial report shows that Pfizer's Q1 revenue decreased 8% year-on-year to $13.7 billion, falling short of the market expectation of $13.9 billion. The revenue decline was mainly due to reduced sales of the COVID drug Paxlovid, partially offset by sales growth of its COVID vaccine Comirnaty, Vyndaqel drug series, and several other products. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.92, better than the market expectation of $0.67. The company's CEO stated that the company faces headwinds from changes in insurance coverage related to the U.S. Medicare program Part D. Pfizer reiterated its full-year performance guidance, still expecting full-year revenue for 2025 to be $61 billion to $64 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $2.8 to $3.0. However, the company also noted that this guidance does not include potential impacts from future tariffs or changes in trade policy.

United Parcel Service (UPS.US) Q1 revenue exceeds expectations, but signals "demand shock" under tariff clouds. United Parcel Service's Q1 revenue decreased 0.7% year-on-year to $21.5 billion, but exceeded the expectation of $21.22 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $1.49, surpassing the analyst expectation of $1.44. Driven by growth in air freight business, the company's domestic revenue in the U.S. increased 1.4% to $14.46 billion, with revenue per package rising 4.5%, partially offsetting the decline in shipment volume. International business revenue grew 2.7%, with daily volume increasing by 7.1%. Nevertheless, due to the new challenges posed by Trump's tariff policy to the package delivery market and the volatility it brings to the global economy, United Parcel Service remains cautious in its outlook. The company did not update its previously released comprehensive full-year guidance, citing the current economic environment. United Parcel Service stated in a statement on Tuesday, "Given the current macroeconomic uncertainty," the company will not update its guidance for 2025. The company previously expected revenue for 2025 to be approximately $89 billion, with an annual operating profit margin of about 10.8% As of the time of publication, United Parcel Service rose over 2% in pre-market trading on Tuesday.

AstraZeneca (AZN.US) Q1 profits exceed expectations, maintaining full-year performance guidance despite tariff impacts. The financial report shows that driven by double-digit growth in oncology and biopharmaceuticals, AstraZeneca's total revenue in Q1 increased by 10% year-on-year (at constant exchange rates), reaching $13.59 billion. Core earnings per share were $2.49, a 21% year-on-year increase, surpassing analyst expectations. The company's profit growth in the first quarter was mainly due to sales of its diabetes and cancer drugs. The company stated that sales of its diabetes and heart disease drug Farxiga exceeded expectations by nearly 6%, and revenue from its newer cancer drug Enhertu also exceeded expectations. However, sales of its other major cancer drugs fell short of expectations. AstraZeneca reaffirmed its total revenue and core earnings per share guidance for the fiscal year 2025. Total revenue is expected to grow in the high single digits; core earnings per share are expected to grow in double digits. This British pharmaceutical company confirmed its performance expectations for this year and stated that as the pharmaceutical industry prepares to cope with tariffs, the company is committed to investing and developing in the United States. As of the time of publication, AstraZeneca fell nearly 2% in pre-market trading on Tuesday.

Novartis (NVS.US) Q1 performance exceeds expectations, raises full-year growth targets. The financial report shows that at constant exchange rates, Novartis' Q1 net sales increased by 15% year-on-year to $13.2 billion, higher than the consensus analyst expectation of $13.12 billion. Adjusted core operating profit reached $5.58 billion, a 27% year-on-year increase, far exceeding the market expectation of $5.07 billion. This performance growth was mainly driven by the continued strength of the heart failure treatment drug Entresto and the arthritis drug Cosentyx. However, CEO Vas Narasimhan specifically pointed out that market demand for the breast cancer treatment drug Kisqali, multiple sclerosis drug Kesimpta, and cholesterol-lowering drug Leqvio is significantly increasing. Looking ahead, Novartis raised its full-year net sales growth expectation for 2025 from the previous mid-to-high single digits to high single digits, and adjusted the core operating profit growth expectation from high single digits to low double digits to low double digits.

Deutsche Bank (DB.US) Q1 performance exceeds expectations, market volatility boosts FIC business revenue to a quarterly record high. The financial report shows that Deutsche Bank's net revenue in the first quarter was €8.524 billion, a 10% year-on-year increase, better than the average analyst expectation of €8.3 billion. Pre-tax profit was €2.837 billion, a 39% year-on-year increase, better than the average analyst expectation of €2.6 billion; net profit attributable to shareholders was €1.775 billion, a 39% year-on-year increase. Deutsche Bank stated in its financial report that the revenue growth in the first quarter supports the bank's revenue targets for 2025, while the profit growth in the first quarter reflects double-digit revenue growth and cost discipline. Notably, the bank's fixed income and currency (FIC) business saw Q1 revenue increase by 17% year-on-year to a record high of €2.9 billion, better than analyst expectations, mainly driven by strong growth in interest rates and foreign exchange business, reflecting increased market activity and customer engagement As of the time of publication, Deutsche Bank rose over 3% in pre-market trading on Tuesday.

The "reset" strategy struggles against weak oil prices, BP (BP.US) sees Q1 profits plummet by 49%. The troubled oil and gas giant reported a 49% year-on-year decline in its underlying reset cost profit (commonly used as a measure of net profit) for the first three months of this year, amounting to $1.38 billion, below the $1.6 billion expected by analysts surveyed by LSEG. The company's net debt at the end of Q1 rose to $26.97 billion from $22.99 billion at the end of Q4 last year. BP had previously warned that upstream production in Q1 would decline compared to the last three months of last year, and net debt would also increase. Notably, due to its underperformance compared to industry peers for a long time, BP committed in February to cut spending in the renewable energy sector and increase annual investment in its core oil and gas business to rebuild investor confidence. As of the time of publication, BP fell nearly 4% in pre-market trading on Tuesday.

Facing environmental uncertainties, NXP (NXPI.US) expects Q2 revenue to decline year-on-year. The financial report showed that NXP's Q1 revenue fell 9% year-on-year to $2.84 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $2.64. Analysts had previously expected revenue of $2.83 billion and earnings per share of $2.60. Additionally, NXP announced the appointment of a new CEO and warned that the chip manufacturer is in a "very uncertain environment" due to tariffs. NXP forecasts Q2 revenue to decline to between $2.8 billion and $3 billion, with the midpoint above the analysts' average expectation of $2.86 billion. As of the time of publication, NXP fell nearly 8% in pre-market trading on Tuesday.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecasts

Beijing time 22:00 - U.S. April Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

Beijing time 22:00 - U.S. March JOLTs Job Openings

Earnings Forecast

Wednesday morning: Visa (V.US), Booking (BKNG.US), Starbucks (SBUX.US), Snap (SNAP.US)

Wednesday pre-market: Total (TTE.US), UBS (UBS.US), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.US), Western Digital (WDC.US)