Goldman Sachs: Oral weight loss drugs will be one of the most promising new drugs in recent years!

Author of this article: Li Xiaoyin

The battle for weight loss drugs escalates! Goldman Sachs predicts that oral weight loss drugs will capture one-third of the market share, with Eli Lilly leading the way.

According to news from the Wind Trading Desk, Goldman Sachs analysts Asad Haider, James Quigley, and others stated in their latest research report that oral GLP-1 weight loss drugs will become one of the most important new product cycles in the biopharmaceutical field.

Goldman Sachs expects that by 2030/2035, daily oral tablets will occupy 24%/32% of the weight loss drug (AOM) market, with a market size reaching $22.3 billion/$38.1 billion, while Eli Lilly will dominate this field.

The oral weight loss drug market has broad prospects, with Eli Lilly leading the way

Recently, Pfizer announced the termination of its oral GLP-1 receptor agonist danuglipron's development due to a potential drug-induced liver injury in a patient. Although Pfizer's management expressed optimism about the prospects of the oral weight loss drug market, this exit cleared a significant obstacle for market leader Eli Lilly.

At the same time, Eli Lilly reported positive Phase III trial data for orforglipron (oral small molecule GLP-1 tablet) in patients with type 2 diabetes, significantly reducing the risk of the company's oral obesity program and enhancing market confidence in Eli Lilly's leading position in this field.

Novo Nordisk confirmed that it has submitted an application for oral semaglutide (25mg) to the FDA. It is worth noting that although small-molecule oral drugs (such as Eli Lilly's orforglipron) will have significant advantages in scale, manufacturing, and management, Goldman Sachs believes that peptide-based assets will still occupy a certain share of the oral market, especially considering that the safety of such drugs has been proven.

Based on the latest industry developments, Goldman Sachs made the following adjustments to its forecasts in the report:

1. Completely removed Pfizer's danuglipron from the weight loss drug market model (previously predicted sales of $1.2 billion/$1.9 billion in 2030/2035);

2. Increased the market share forecast for Eli Lilly's orforglipron in the oral drug category. Considering the potential of new entrants, it is expected that only half of the market space vacated by Pfizer's exit will be captured by Eli Lilly, while the other half will be taken by other oral products. Goldman Sachs' risk-adjusted sales forecast for orforglipron in the obesity and diabetes fields is now approximately $1 billion/$17.2 billion/$24.5 billion (2026/2030/2035) (previously forecasted as $1 billion/$16.5 billion/$23.5 billion).

3. Maintained the previous assumptions for Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide. Although Goldman Sachs predicts that Eli Lilly's orforglipron will become the winner in oral GLP-1 treatment, it remains optimistic about Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide, expecting its sales to reach $5.3 billion.

The report states that Eli Lilly's orforglipron will become the winner in oral GLP-1 treatment, while oral semaglutide 25mg still has a place, mainly considering that the active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) requirements may prevent any meaningful generics from entering the broader semaglutide patent expiration market, potentially extending price protection until the orforglipron patent expires According to its 2024 annual report, Eli Lilly has accumulated a pre-listing inventory valued at $548.1 million, primarily related to orforglipron, and is not expected to experience supply imbalances.

Focus on Eli Lilly's ATTAIN-1 trial results to be announced in Q3

Goldman Sachs believes that the obesity market is being segmented by body mass index (BMI) and treatment type (oral, injection), and that oral tablets may expand the market size by attracting more patients to try drug treatment.

This judgment is mainly based on highlights. First, Goldman Sachs' KOL survey shows that, under the same conditions, about 50% of patients may prefer oral over injection; second, the oral clinical data so far indicates that, although relatively less effective than injectables, oral tablets remain a good option for maintenance therapy.

In terms of pricing, Goldman Sachs expects the first products in the oral drug category (Eli Lilly's oforglipron and Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide 25mg) to be priced at approximately a net price of $650 per month, with annual price reductions of 7% in the U.S. market, and by 2030/2035, the average net price in this category will reach $457/$308, similar to the injectable category's $465/$305. Eli Lilly's management has not yet commented on the pricing strategy for orforglipron.

The report specifically mentions that attention should be focused on the upcoming results of Eli Lilly's ATTAIN-1 trial to be announced in Q3 2025, which will be the first readout of orforglipron in the obesity field and the most important next catalyst in the oral obesity drug space.

According to Goldman Sachs' estimates, Eli Lilly expects the effect in the obese population to be comparable to semaglutide, with an absolute weight loss of about 15%. Notably, in Goldman Sachs' obesity KOL survey, the median weight loss required to switch to oral treatment is about 15%, while most doctors only need to see a weight loss in the range of 10-20% to justify switching to oral treatment