JPMorgan Chase traders "turn bullish" on US stocks, but believe "the upward trend will fade in a few weeks"

After the US stock market achieved its second-best weekly performance of 2025 last week, JPMorgan Chase's attitude has made a 180-degree turn from bearish to bullish, while warning that "the upward trend will fade in a few weeks."

On April 29, it was reported that JPMorgan Chase's trading team abandoned its previous "tactical bearish" stance in a report sent to clients on the 28th, shifting to an optimistic outlook on the US stock market.

The report noted that Andrew Tyler, the head of global market intelligence at JPMorgan Chase, stated: "Overall, under the easing trade tensions, there is still room for the US stock market to rise."

Tyler also predicted that the upcoming earnings reports from tech giants this week are expected to drive the stock market higher.

In addition to the potential benefits from tariff negotiations and the earnings reports of tech giants, Tyler's team also indicated that "this shift in attitude towards the US stock market also considers technical factors." The report stated:

"Light positions, low liquidity, and low investor participation mean that, in the absence of negative news on tariffs or soaring bond yields, the market is likely to continue rising."

It is noteworthy that JPMorgan Chase's trading team simultaneously warned in the report that "the momentum of this rebound may weaken in a few weeks, and the negative impact of US tariffs will begin to weigh on the economy in the coming months."

Attitude Shift: From Tactical Bearish to Bullish

Just a week ago, Tyler and his team held a "tactical bearish" stance on the US stock market. As previously mentioned by Wallstreetcn, on April 21, when US assets faced a triple whammy of stocks, bonds, and currencies, JPMorgan Chase's Andrew Tyler stated that they would maintain a bearish stance on US stocks tactically.

With the impressive performance of the US stock market last week, as of last Friday's close, the three major indices had risen for four consecutive days, achieving the second-best weekly performance of 2025. Some analysts believe that the positive signals released from tariff negotiations have boosted market risk sentiment.

At the beginning of this week, JPMorgan Chase traders turned bullish on the US stock market in their latest client report, predicting that favorable factors such as tech giants' earnings reports and tariff negotiations would continue to drive the stock market higher in the near term.

Tyler's team expects that "the earnings reports of large tech companies could potentially be a positive factor for the stock market." This week will be an important test of this view, as tech giants like Microsoft, Apple, Meta, and Amazon are set to announce their earnings.

The report noted that the Mag 7 is expected to achieve an average profit growth of 15% in 2025, despite the escalation of trade tensions, and this forecast has remained largely unchanged since early March.

Warning: Tariff Effects Yet to Manifest

Tyler's team warned in the report: "It will take another 1-2 months to see the negative impact of the trade war on the economy." This echoes the concerns of major Wall Street institutions regarding the potential deterioration of US economic data in the future.

As previously mentioned by Wallstreetcn, Goldman Sachs analyst Rikin Shah warned in a report that the negative impact of tariff policies on the US economy may not become more apparent until mid-May or early June Goldman Sachs stated that we are currently in a very difficult period with extremely high uncertainty: 1. The final outcome of the tariff negotiations is unknown; 2. The impact of tariffs on global growth and the labor market is uncertain. Even if there is short-term relief, it is important to remember that this uncertainty has not yet passed.

Given that the impact of tariffs has not yet manifested, the market faces the risk of economic recession. Tyler warned investors that the current rebound in U.S. stocks "will fade within a few weeks."

Additionally, the JPMorgan Chase equity research team expects the S&P 500 index to fluctuate between 5,200 and 5,800 points, swaying under the influence of positive trade news and recession concerns. They recommend:

"Sell risk assets when the market strengthens, rather than chasing momentum, as a complete narrative shift requires more clear signals."