Breakfast | S&P rises for five consecutive days, Nvidia falls 2%, NXP Semiconductors plummets after earnings

Market Overview

The upward momentum in U.S. stocks has diminished, with technology stocks weighing on the market. The S&P 500 narrowly achieved five consecutive gains, while the Nasdaq fell back, and the chip index, along with Nvidia which dropped over 2%, halted its four-day winning streak. Tesla, after a mid-day drop of over 4%, turned positive, achieving five consecutive gains alongside Apple. Following the announcement of financial warnings regarding tariff impacts, chip stock NXP Semiconductors saw a post-market drop of over 8%.

Chinese concept stocks performed well overall, with the Chinese concept index rebounding to a three-week high. Among popular Chinese concept stocks, Nio surged over 7% after being recommended by Citigroup to watch for positive catalysts within 30 days, Li Auto rose over 3%, while Alibaba fell over 1%.

The U.S. Treasury's actual borrowing estimate for this quarter decreased rather than increased, with U.S. Treasury yields hitting a near two-week low.

The U.S. dollar index retreated, the Japanese yen rebounded over 1%, and the offshore yuan briefly rose nearly 200 points, breaking through 7.29; Bitcoin surged over $2,000 to exceed $95,000 before turning negative.

Gold rebounded, with futures rising nearly 2%. Crude oil fell back, turning down over 2% during the session, with U.S. oil closing at a near two-week low.

During the Asian session, A-shares fluctuated throughout the day, with several bank stocks reaching historical highs. Hong Kong stocks narrowed their gains in the afternoon, Pop Mart hit a new high during the session, and most government bond futures rose.

Macroeconomic Information

Chinese Foreign Ministry: There have been no consultations or negotiations between China and the U.S. on tariff issues

According to CCTV, at a routine press conference on Monday, a reporter asked about a report stating that President Trump mentioned in an interview with Time magazine on April 22 that the Chinese President called him. The foreign ministry spokesperson, Guo Jiaqun, stated that to my knowledge, there has been no recent communication between the two heads of state. I want to reiterate that there have been no consultations or negotiations between China and the U.S. on tariff issues.

U.S. Treasury Secretary: India is likely to be one of the first countries to sign a trade agreement with the U.S.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated on Monday that many of America's major trading partners have made "very good" suggestions to avoid U.S. tariffs, and India is likely to be one of the first countries to sign a trade agreement with the U.S. After two morning television interviews, Mnuchin told reporters that the first such trade agreement could be reached this week or next, but did not disclose further details.

Mnuchin: Trump is involved in all trade negotiations; perhaps China will call him.

Mnuchin: China's partial tariff exemptions indicate a willingness to ease tensions.

BRICS countries discuss coordinated response to Trump's trade policies and may issue a joint statement criticizing U.S. tariffs

BRICS foreign ministers held a meeting to discuss jointly defending the global trading system and coordinating responses to the series of new tariffs imposed by U.S. President Trump. This meeting, held in Rio de Janeiro, is expected to issue a joint statement criticizing what the group calls "unilateral measures" in trade. "Ministers are negotiating a statement to reaffirm the central role of multilateral trade negotiations as the main axis of trade actions," said Brazilian representative Mauricio Lyrio: "They will reiterate their criticism of unilateral measures from any source, which has been the long-standing position of BRICS."

Kyiv announces a three-day ceasefire in May and is willing to negotiate unconditionally, while Ukraine demands an immediate ceasefireRussian President Vladimir Putin announced that the war between Russia and Ukraine will have a ceasefire for three days in May to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union and its allies' victory in World War II. The Kremlin stated that there will be a 72-hour ceasefire on May 8, 9, and 10, during which Putin will hold grand celebrations to commemorate the victory over Nazi Germany, hosting several international leaders including Chinese President Xi Jinping. However, Ukraine questioned why Putin did not agree to its call for an immediate ceasefire of at least 30 days to pave the way for diplomacy. The White House stated that Trump hopes for a permanent ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.

The EU imposes tariffs of up to 66.7% on construction machinery imported from China

The European Commission announced that it has imposed tariffs of up to 66.7% on construction hoisting machinery imported from China, after determining that these manufacturers benefited from unfair subsidies and artificially lowered sales prices. The European Commission stated that the additional tariffs on Chinese mobile access equipment (MAE) will range from 20.6% to 66.7%, aimed at protecting EU manufacturers, with the EU's MAE market exceeding 1 billion euros annually.

Barclays lowers its 2025 Brent crude oil price forecast due to trade tensions and OPEC+ production adjustments

Barclays has lowered its forecast for Brent crude oil in 2025 by $4 to $70 per barrel and set the 2026 forecast at $62 per barrel, citing that the fundamental outlook will be "bumpy" as trade tensions escalate and OPEC+ adjusts its production strategy. Although the development of the oil market fundamentals in early 2025 is "far better than expected," the bank currently expects an oversupply of 1 million barrels per day this year and 1.5 million barrels per day in 2026.

The S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio has risen above 20 times

The S&P 500 index has risen 14% since its intraday low on April 7, and the price-to-earnings ratio has risen above 20 times. The Mag-7 recorded its best weekly performance in three years (+9.4%).

Institutions: The net leverage ratio of US fundamental long-short funds has significantly rebounded from absolute lows, but overall remains at a low level (Figure 1).

Retail investors: Retail investors in the US stock market continue to aggressively increase their holdings, especially in the Nasdaq (Figure 2).

Company Information

Pop Mart goes viral again, long lines overseas, stock price surges 10%

On April 24, Pop Mart's popular IP LABUBU launched its latest series, and the next day the official app topped the US App Store shopping chart. Pop Mart stated that it sees the potential for LABUBU to "become a global super IP" and aims to push LABUBU to become "the future Mickey Mouse or Pikachu."Morgan Stanley pointed out that Pop Mart's plush products have become the company's most important growth catalyst due to their "fashion practicality." With the company's rapid expansion in the United States and Southeast Asia, sales are expected to double in 2024, with a further increase of 47% in 2025.

Nvidia's stock fell over 4% during trading

This was due to market concerns about Huawei's upcoming AI chip Ascend 910D, which is designed to compete with Nvidia's H100s. This situation follows Nvidia's $5.5 billion write-down due to restrictions on exporting H20 chips to China. As the tech competition between the U.S. and China intensifies, Nvidia's business in China has declined due to new restrictions. Despite these challenges, Nvidia's stock is considered reasonably valued at a 37 times price-to-earnings ratio, suggesting that long-term profit potential remains if investors buy at lower levels.

Uncertainty in the environment, NXP Semiconductors expects a year-on-year decline in Q2 revenue, falling over 8% in after-hours trading

In its quarterly results, the company announced the appointment of a new CEO and warned that the chip manufacturer is in a "very uncertain environment" due to tariffs. The financial report showed that NXP's Q1 revenue fell 9% year-on-year to $2.84 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $2.64. Analysts had previously expected revenue of $2.83 billion and earnings per share of $2.60.

The company stated that CEO Kurt Sievers will retire later this year. Current NXP executive Rafael Sotomayor will immediately take over as president and become the new CEO on October 28.

Sievers has served as CEO since 2020, and NXP stated that his departure is "purely a personal decision and not related to any disagreements with the board." Sotomayor joined NXP from Broadcom in 2014.

The financial report indicated that NXP forecasts Q2 revenue to decline to between $2.8 billion and $3 billion, with the midpoint above analysts' average expectation of $2.86 billion. The company's stock price plummeted over 8% in after-hours trading.

Alibaba releases and open-sources Qwen3

Seamlessly integrates thinking patterns, supports 119 languages, and facilitates Agent calls. The released Qwen3 series includes two expert mixture (MoE) models and six additional models, with the flagship model Qwen3-235B-A22B showing highly competitive performance in benchmarks for code, mathematics, and general capabilities compared to top models like DeepSeek-R1, o1, o3-mini, Grok-3, and Gemini-2.5-Pro.

IBM to invest $150 billion in the U.S. over the next five years

This includes expanding quantum computer production facilities, making it the latest U.S. tech company to support the Trump administration's push for domestic manufacturing. Some analysts believe these spending commitments are a gesture to Trump, as his tariff measures could disrupt supply chains and increase costs in the tech industryAffected by tariffs, some Amazon sellers will not participate in this year's Prime Day event

Amazon's Prime Day is losing appeal among this key group of sellers. Some third-party sellers who sold Chinese-made goods during last year's Prime Day in July will not participate in the event this year or will reduce the number of discounted items they offer. According to four merchants and six consultants who provide advice to hundreds of Amazon sellers, opting out of the event is a way for sellers to protect their profit margins amid the trade war triggered by Trump's tariffs on China.

It is reported that nearly a thousand items on Amazon have seen an average price increase of 29%, while the top 100 items on Shein have seen an average price increase of 51%. Since April 9, 930 items on the Amazon platform have increased in price, with an average increase of 29%; most of Shein's price increases in the U.S. occurred on Fridays, with the top 100 beauty and health products averaging a 51% price increase, and some categories experiencing price surges of up to 377%.

Analysts

U.S. stocks face a major test with tech earnings, but good news can't lift the market

Research indicates that in the current macro environment, companies that exceed earnings expectations see an average increase of only 50 basis points the next day (T+1), far below the historical average of 101 basis points, while companies that miss expectations drop by 247 basis points, more severe than the historical average decline of 206 basis points.

Big buyers return to U.S. stocks, Goldman Sachs expects about 65% of companies to enter the buyback window by this weekend

According to Goldman Sachs, U.S. companies have re-entered the buyback window, which will last until June 13. Goldman Sachs estimates that about 40% of companies are currently in the buyback window, and expects that by this weekend, about 65% of companies will have entered.

Goldman Sachs: Tariffs are equivalent to a tax increase

U.S. production and employment will be impacted, with GDP growth potentially decreasing by nearly 2 percentage points. Goldman Sachs predicts that the tariff war will cause a negative impact of nearly 2 percentage points, with U.S. GDP growth expected to be only 0.5% in 2025. Tariffs affect the U.S. economy through multiple channels: first, industries reliant on imported raw materials face soaring costs. Second, U.S. export companies lose competitiveness due to retaliatory tariffs and low-price dumping from overseas. Third, if other countries restrict rare earth exports, high-tech industries such as semiconductors and electronics may face production disruptions