U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures All Decline as Tech Giants' Earnings Reports and Non-Farm Payroll Data Arrive with Impact

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of April 28 (Monday), U.S. stock index futures are all down before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are down 0.06%, S&P 500 futures are down 0.12%, and Nasdaq futures are down 0.07%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 0.52%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.11%, the French CAC 40 index is up 0.72%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 0.50%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is down 0.33%, priced at $62.81 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 0.36%, priced at $65.56 per barrel.

Market News

Super Week is Coming! Non-Farm Payrolls Collide with Tech Giants' Earnings Reports, Can the Momentum of U.S. Stock Market Rebound Continue? Last week, U.S. stocks saw a strong rebound as Trump's speech eased investors' concerns about the escalation of the U.S.-China trade war and the independence of the Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 index rose 4.5% for the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 2.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index, dominated by tech stocks, performed particularly well, climbing a total of 6.6%. After major stock indices basically recovered the losses incurred before the tariff announcement on April 2, the market is set to welcome a week filled with economic data and corporate earnings releases. In terms of economic data, before the release of the April non-farm payroll report at 20:30 Beijing time on Friday, the first-quarter inflation data and GDP growth rate will be the focus. On the corporate side, 180 S&P 500 constituents will disclose their quarterly reports, with giants like Apple (AAPL.US), Amazon (AMZN.US), Coca-Cola (KO.US), Eli Lilly (LLY.US), Meta (META.US), Microsoft (MSFT.US), and Chevron (CVX.US) drawing the most attention.

Beware of Earnings Season! Goldman Sachs Hits the Brakes: AI Support Cannot Hide Shrinking Corporate Wallets. As of the week ending April 25, the S&P 500 index has broken through the 5500-point mark due to the dual benefits of easing tariff concerns and the start of earnings season. However, behind this rally led by tech stocks, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin has sounded the alarm: 41% of S&P 500 constituents will report earnings next week, and corporate investment decisions may hit the brakes due to increased policy uncertainty. Goldman Sachs estimates that for every 100 basis points increase in policy uncertainty, corporate cash spending growth may slow by about 10 percentage points. Based on this model, the firm has significantly lowered its 2025 S&P 500 corporate cash spending growth forecast from 11% to 5%, with the total amount dropping to $3.8 trillion This adjustment far exceeds market expectations, reflecting companies' heightened vigilance regarding the trade policies, tax plans of the Trump administration, and personnel changes at the Federal Reserve. As the earnings season enters its core period, the market will face a critical verification phase. Goldman Sachs specifically emphasizes the need to closely monitor companies' statements regarding capital expenditure plans, inventory levels, and supply chain arrangements, as these details will reveal the substantial impact of policy uncertainty on corporate decision-making. Under the dual pressure of fiscal deficits and a shift in monetary policy, U.S. stocks may face a moment of valuation logic reconstruction.

Apollo Chief Economist: A comprehensive recession in the U.S. is inevitable by summer 2025 at the latest! Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management, warned in a recent research report: "This is a typical stagflation shock." "A comprehensive economic recession will be inevitable by summer 2025 at the latest." The report points out that although the tariff plan was announced only a few weeks ago, the specter of stagflation has already begun to emerge—trade conflicts simultaneously undermine supply chain efficiency and total trade volume, leading to stagnation in economic activity; while imposing reciprocal tariffs on imported goods raises prices and weakens market competition. This combination of "stagnant growth + soaring inflation" is an economic nightmare not seen in forty years.

U.S. Treasury market entering a "new order"? Uncertainties in Trump’s policies raise long-term U.S. Treasury risk premiums. The "sell-off of U.S. Treasuries" wave sweeping the global bond market this month is impacting the foundation of U.S. long-term government bonds, the world's largest deficit financing tool. As President Trump approaches his hundredth day in office, his trade war, tax cuts, and erratic governance style have forced bond investors to reassess the traditional safe-haven attributes of U.S. Treasuries. In this regard, Jack McIntyre, head of Brandywine Global Investment Management with $63 billion in assets, stated: "We are entering a new world order." Even if Trump reverses his policies on tariffs, the uncertainty he has created has pushed the long-term U.S. Treasury term premium (the risk compensation demanded by investors) to its highest level since 2014.

Options market warns of a long-short reversal, cracks appearing in the gold surge myth? As Trump's tariff war reshapes the global economic order, safe-haven funds continue to flow into the gold market, with gold prices leading all major asset classes this month. However, changes in options positions are causing some market observers to remain cautious. With spot gold prices hitting a historic high last week, the trading volume of options contracts for the gold ETF-SPDR (GLD.US) surpassed 1.3 million, setting a new record. Meanwhile, the cost of put hedges for this ETF has remained at its lowest level since August of last year, while implied volatility has surged, creating an anomalous market pattern. Barclays strategists believe that current gold prices have deviated from fundamental support. They pointed out in last week's report that the recent monthly data on central bank gold purchases is not unusual compared to long-term trends. Stefano Pascale of Barclays noted that the surge in gold prices has triggered a lot of speculative behavior, with a spike in bullish options trading for the gold ETF following Trump's "liberation day" remarks, leading to an inverted skew index. Combined with hedge funds reducing their positions and the recent pullback in gold prices, strategists believe caution should be maintained at least in the short term

Individual Stock News

Spirit AeroSystems (SPR.US) finalizes asset acquisition agreement with Airbus. European aircraft manufacturer Airbus and Spirit AeroSystems announced on Monday that they have reached a final agreement on the acquisition of certain assets, marking a key progress in the restructuring of this troubled transatlantic supplier. Under the agreement, Boeing (BA.US) will repurchase its Spirit AeroSystems fuselage manufacturing business, which it divested 20 years ago, for $4.7 billion in stock, while Airbus will take over Spirit's Europe-centered and persistently loss-making operations. Both parties stated that this complex three-party transaction is expected to be completed in the third quarter, rather than mid-year as previously anticipated. Additionally, Airbus will provide Spirit with a total of $200 million in interest-free credit as one of the conditions of the deal, while Airbus will receive $439 million from Spirit as compensation for taking on loss-making production (though this amount is lower than the initially planned $559 million). As of the time of publication, Spirit AeroSystems' stock rose over 2% in pre-market trading on Monday.

Merck acquires SpringWorks (SWTX.US) for $3.9 billion. German healthcare and materials group Merck announced on Monday that it has reached an agreement to acquire American biotechnology company SpringWorks Therapeutics for $3.9 billion in equity value, aiming to boost its oncology drug business. Merck stated that the cash acquisition price of $47 per share, excluding the cash held by SpringWorks, corresponds to an equity value of approximately $3.9 billion, equivalent to an enterprise value of $3.4 billion (€3 billion). The acquisition of SpringWorks will become one of Merck's largest pharmaceutical deals in recent years, advancing its ongoing efforts to build a cancer treatment business. As of the time of publication, SpringWorks' stock rose nearly 3% in pre-market trading on Monday.

Amazon (AMZN.US) sees prices of nearly a thousand products surge by 30%. As the Trump administration continues to ramp up tariffs on China, American consumers are feeling the price impact of the trade war through online shopping channels. Price analysis platform SmartScout shows that since the second week of April, nearly a thousand products on the Amazon platform have seen significant price increases, with an average rise of nearly 30%. Scott Needham, founder and CEO of SmartScout, stated that the price hike has affected multiple product categories, from electronic accessories like phone chargers to women's clothing. For example, about 25% of the product line of the best-selling charging device brand Anker on Amazon has completed price adjustments. Needham remarked, "This is the first time I've observed such a large-scale coordinated price increase, and I can't find any other reasonable explanation aside from tariff factors." According to trade rules, importers typically pass on most or all of the tariff costs to consumers. Amazon CEO Andrew Jassy stated earlier this month that he expects U.S. tariff policies to drive up prices of many consumer goods

Earnings Forecast

Tuesday morning: NXP Semiconductors (NXPI.US)

Tuesday pre-market: AstraZeneca (AZN.US), BP (BP.US), Novartis (NVS.US), Deutsche Bank (DB.US), HSBC (HSBC.US), Coca-Cola (KO.US), Pfizer (PFE.US), United Parcel Service (UPS.US), General Motors (GM.US), Daqo New Energy (DQ.US), JinkoSolar (JKS.US)