Earnings Report Preview | Apple's Q2 profit growth is favored by the market, and better-than-expected data may become a catalyst for stock price

According to Zhitong Finance APP, the market generally expects that Apple (AAPL.US) will continue its growth trend in the financial report for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 (ending March 2025), which will be disclosed on May 1. This tech giant is expected to achieve earnings per share of $1.60, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%; revenue is expected to reach $93.56 billion, an increase of 3.1% compared to the same period last year. Although the earnings expectations themselves reflect market consensus, the short-term fluctuations in stock prices after the earnings report is released may depend on the "result of the showdown" between actual data and market expectations.

If the core data exceeds market expectations, Apple's stock price may gain upward momentum; conversely, if it fails to meet earnings or revenue targets, it may face downward pressure. It is worth noting that although the management's interpretation of the business outlook during the earnings call will directly affect the market's assessment of Apple's long-term value, short-term stock price fluctuations still heavily rely on the performance of key financial indicators.

Looking back at past performance, Apple has exceeded market expectations for earnings per share (EPS) for four consecutive quarters. In the most recent quarter (first quarter of fiscal year 2025), the company's actual EPS reached $2.40, surpassing the market expectation of $2.36, with an exceedance of 1.69%. This performance adds confidence to the upcoming earnings report.

However, historical performance is not a guarantee of future results. Stock price fluctuations are not solely determined by whether earnings exceed expectations— even if the earnings report data is impressive, if management provides conservative guidance for the next quarter or if there are negative signals from the supply chain or demand side, the stock price may still be under pressure; conversely, if the earnings report data is slightly disappointing, but the company discloses breakthrough technological advancements or significant collaborations, it may also trigger a rebound in stock price.

For ordinary investors, it is necessary to weigh two major factors before the earnings report is released: first, the likelihood of Apple continuing to exceed expectations, and second, the impact of potential risk events on valuation. Although current data suggests a high probability of exceeding earnings expectations, external variables such as the Trump administration's tariff policies and fluctuations in global consumer electronics demand may still become "black swans."

Overall, the essence of Apple's earnings season is a battleground between market expectations and real data. Under the long-term narratives of the AI hardware revolution and service business transformation, a single quarterly earnings report may be difficult to overturn the company's fundamentals, but short-term stock prices still cannot escape the "digital curse." Investors need to find a balance between rational data and emotional fluctuations to grasp the true value signals amid the noise of earnings season