Super Week is here! Will the non-farm payrolls collide with the earnings reports of tech giants, and can the momentum of the US stock market rebound be sustained?

According to Zhitong Finance APP, in the past week, U.S. stocks experienced a strong rebound as Trump's remarks eased investors' concerns about the escalation of the China-U.S. trade war and the independence of the Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 index rose by 4.5% for the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 2.5%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite Index performed particularly well, climbing a total of 6.6%.

After major stock indices basically recovered the losses incurred before the tariff announcement on April 2, the market is set to face a week filled with economic data and corporate earnings reports.

In terms of economic data, before the release of the April non-farm payroll report at 20:30 Beijing time on Friday, the focus will be on the first-quarter inflation data and GDP growth rate.

On the corporate side, 180 S&P 500 constituent stocks will disclose their quarterly reports, with giants such as Apple (AAPL.US), Amazon (AMZN.US), Coca-Cola (KO.US), Eli Lilly (LLY.US), Meta (META.US), Microsoft (MSFT.US), and Chevron (CVX.US) drawing the most attention.

Policy Shift Fuels Rebound

The significant rise in the stock market last week was due to the Trump administration signaling a de-escalation on two key issues.

Last Tuesday, Trump told reporters that he had "no intention of firing" Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, reversing previous market expectations that had led to a nearly 1,000-point drop in the Dow on a single day. In the same press conference, he also hinted at reducing the 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, stating that the tax rate would be "substantially lowered."

Mark Newton, Head of Global Technical Strategy at Fundstrat, stated, "In the absence of substantive negotiations, the market has made considerable progress. The certainty of a policy shift and the government's willingness to retract aggressive measures are enough to constitute a positive outlook."

This statement propelled the S&P 500 index to achieve its first four consecutive gains since January, but strategists believe that the shadow of tariffs has not completely dissipated.

Michael Kantrowitz, Chief Investment Strategist at Piper Sandler, wrote in a report to clients, "Although the crisis is not fully resolved, historical experience shows that when core contradictions begin to ease, market corrections often stabilize gradually."

Concerns Over Growth Prospects

Market concerns about tariffs partly stem from fears of a sharp slowdown in the U.S. economy. The first-quarter GDP data, to be released on Wednesday, will reveal the economic conditions before Trump pushed the actual tariff rates to a century high.

Economists expect the annualized GDP growth rate for the first quarter to plummet to 0.1%, a significant drop from 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024. If the forecast is accurate, this will mark the slowest quarterly growth since 2022.

Inflation Indicator Review

The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, released on the same day, has also attracted significant attention.

Before tariff factors have transmitted to the data, economists expect the year-on-year increase in March's core PCE (excluding the more volatile food and energy categories) to fall back to 2.5% (previous value 2.8%), with a month-on-month growth rate expected to drop to 0.1% (previous value 0.4%).

Labor Market Resilience

Despite signs of economic slowdown, the job market remains strong. Economists expect this trend to continue with the release of the April employment report on Friday.

Data shows that non-farm payrolls in April are expected to increase by 133,000, with the unemployment rate likely holding steady at 4.2%. In comparison, the U.S. economy added 228,000 jobs in March, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.

In a report to clients, the Wells Fargo economic research team led by Jay Bryson wrote: "The labor market remains stable. Although trade policy suddenly changed throughout the month, we suspect employers have taken a wait-and-see approach."

Tech Giants Lead the Market

Large-cap tech stocks have led the recent market rally. Over five trading days, including a significant sell-off on Monday, Tesla's (TSLA.US) stock price rose by about 18%, driven by investor optimism regarding CEO Elon Musk's indication of reduced time commitment to government roles and new autonomous driving regulations. Meanwhile, the stock prices of the "Seven Giants" tech companies, including NVIDIA (NVDA.US), Amazon, and Meta, rose by about 9%. Google's (GOOGL.US) positive earnings report propelled its stock price up by 7%.

Nevertheless, year-to-date charts remind investors that the U.S. stock market still has significant declines to recover by 2025.

With earnings reports from Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft approaching, investors will closely examine how changes in the tariff environment and fierce competition in the AI sector reshape the growth prospects of these companies. These earnings reports may become key catalysts in determining whether the market can sustain its rebound.