This may be the most important chart at the moment

Recently, the team led by Apollo's Chief Economist Torsten Sløk illustrated how American consumers and businesses are responding to tariffs.

According to Apollo's charts, the impact of tariffs on American businesses is already evident. New orders are declining, capital expenditure plans are decreasing, inventories are rising before the tariffs take effect, and companies are lowering their profit expectations.

For the average American household, the consumer confidence index has fallen to a historic low. To avoid price increases caused by tariffs, consumers have rushed to purchase goods ahead of the tariff implementation, undoubtedly exhausting future purchasing power. At the same time, the tourism industry, especially international travel, is also showing signs of slowing down.

Apollo: Economic recession may begin in the summer of 2025

Apollo analyzed the economic recession process from April 2025 to the summer. Factors such as tariff adjustments and extended transportation times have led to supply chain disruptions, which in turn affect economic activity. Ultimately, the U.S. may enter a recession in the summer of 2025. Specifically:

April 2:

• The U.S. announces reciprocal tariffs;
• 20-40 days – container shipping time.

Early May to mid-May:

• The volume of containers arriving at U.S. ports plummets;
• 1-10 days – truck/rail transport time from ports to cities.

Mid-May to late May:

• Inland freight volume in the U.S. drops sharply;
• Market shelves begin to empty, and businesses need to cope with reduced sales.

Late May to early June:

• The U.S. freight and retail industries begin layoffs;
• Summer 2025 – the U.S. enters recession.

Tariffs have led to the largest decline in the expected earnings per share (EPS) for S&P 500 companies over the next 12 months since 2020:

Tariffs have caused a collapse in new orders:

And a sharp reversal in corporate capital expenditure plans:

Increased cost pressures on businesses, rising prices:

Before the tariffs take effect, corporate inventories are rapidly increasing:

Executives' Concerns About Economic Recession

Apollo also listed quotes from some well-known corporate executives over the past week, reflecting their views on the current economic situation.

Southwest Airlines CEO Robert Jordan stated:

“I don’t care whether you call it a recession; in this industry, that is a recession.”

Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright said:

“Due to concerns about the economy, consumers are reducing the frequency of dining out, which is their main reason for saving money.”

PepsiCo CFO Jamie Caulfield stated:

“Compared to three months ago, our feeling about consumers may not be as good now.”

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market has risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investment based on this is at their own risk