Next week's heavy schedule: US and Eurozone Q1 GDP, US non-farm payroll, China PMI, Buffett's shareholder meeting, Microsoft, Apple, Meta, and Amazon earnings reports

From April 28 to May 4, a summary of major financial events, all in Beijing time:

In terms of major events, Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, will hold its annual shareholder meeting, Meta will host its first AI developer conference, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision, and the US and Japan may engage in a second round of negotiations.

In terms of data, focus on the US and Eurozone Q1 GDP, the US April non-farm payroll report, March PCE price index, and China's April manufacturing PMI. In terms of earnings reports, pay attention to Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Pfizer, Eli Lilly, Coca-Cola, and Kweichow Moutai.

US and Eurozone Q1 Economic Report Card

The GDP data for the US and Eurozone for Q1 will be released on Wednesday.

Market expectations are that the initial annualized quarter-on-quarter real GDP for the US in Q1 will be 0.2%, a significant contraction from the previous quarter's 2.4%, marking the lowest record since Q3 2022. Against the backdrop of Trump's global trade war, this nearly stagnant GDP data may exacerbate concerns about a potential recession and the risk of a deteriorating job market.

Last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its economic forecast for the US this year (from 2.7% to 1.8%) and predicted a 40% probability of the US entering a recession this year, up from the 27% expected last October.

Buffett's Shareholder Meeting

The global investment community is about to focus on Omaha, USA—on May 2-3 local time, the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting will be grandly held here.

This event, known as the "Spring Festival of the Investment Community," is not only a gathering for shareholders but also an excellent opportunity for global investors to learn and exchange ideas. In the core Q&A session on May 3, Buffett will face shareholder questions directly, sharing profound insights on market trends, company operations, and investment strategies.

The highlights of this meeting include how the $318 billion in cash currently held by Berkshire will be deployed, as well as the issue of Buffett's succession.

US Non-Farm Payrolls Expected to Decline Sharply, Unemployment Rate May Remain Unchanged

The important non-farm payroll data for the US will be released on Friday. Market expectations are that the number of non-farm jobs added in April will drop from 228,000 in March to 130,000, potentially marking the lowest level in four months.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller previously stated that if the job market declines severely, it may lead the Fed to cut interest rates more and fasterHe said that if the Trump administration reinstates aggressive tariff policies, companies may start laying off employees, and if the unemployment rate rises significantly, he would support interest rate cuts.

The year-on-year growth rate of hourly wages in April is expected to rise slightly from 3.8% to 3.9%, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. Goldman Sachs pointed out that the unemployment rate is one of the best indicators for warning of an economic slowdown, typically signaling a recession just one month after it begins. This means that if the unemployment rate falls short of expectations this time, it will trigger a recession alert again.

Another important data point is the U.S. core PCE price index for March, which will be released on Wednesday—this is the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation data. The market expects the year-on-year increase in the March core PCE price index to be 2.6%, which would be the smallest increase since last June. About a week after this data is released, the Federal Reserve will announce its May interest rate decision, with economists expecting rates to remain unchanged.

The second round of U.S.-Japan negotiations is about to begin, with unclear tariff prospects and the Bank of Japan likely to remain on hold

The Bank of Japan will announce its latest interest rate decision and economic outlook report on Thursday, with the market expecting the Bank of Japan to keep rates unchanged.

Later, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a monetary policy press conference, where the market will focus on the Bank of Japan's views on the impact of Trump's tariff policies.

Some media reports indicate that Japan's Minister of Economic Revitalization and chief representative in trade negotiations with the U.S., Ryo Akasaka, is planning to visit the U.S. from April 30 to May 2 to meet with officials from the Trump administration, including Bentsen, for the second round of U.S.-Japan negotiations.

After talks with the U.S. Treasury Secretary this week, Japan's Finance Minister stated that the U.S. did not make any comments regarding the exchange rate level and targets to Japan. Japan is reportedly considering using soybeans as a bargaining chip in negotiations to reach an agreement to lower tariffs.

Meta's First Open Source AI Conference

Meta will hold its first AI developer conference—LlamaCon—on April 29, focusing on the development of generative artificial intelligence. This conference is expected to unveil a brand new model—LLaMA 4 Behemoth, which is anticipated to surpass GPT-4.5 and Claude Sonnet 3.7 in STEM field benchmark tests.

The name of the conference is derived from Meta's open-source AI model Llama series. Meta stated that it will share the latest developments in open-source AI at the end of April conference to help developers build "amazing applications and products." In the coming weeks, the company will also announce more information related to LlamaCon.

Financial Reports from American Tech Giants

During the week, tech giants such as Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, and Spotify will successively release their financial reports, and investors will closely monitor the potential tariff impacts on their supply chains and products imported from overseas.According to comprehensive analysis, Amazon and Apple may be the two tech giants most severely impacted by the tariff storm. Amazon will announce its earnings report after the U.S. stock market closes on Thursday. The company's advertising business may be affected, and its market revenue, which heavily relies on Asian suppliers and retailers, will undoubtedly suffer from Trump's tariffs.

Apple will also release its earnings report after the U.S. stock market closes on Thursday. Although the company may benefit in the short term from consumer panic buying, the dual pressures of rising supply chain costs and declining consumer purchasing power will gradually become apparent as tariffs are fully implemented.

Other Important Data, Meetings, and Events

China's April PMI Data

On Wednesday, the National Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) report and the quarterly report on the production and operation of large-scale cultural and related industries. The data shows that China's official manufacturing PMI for March was 50.5, up from 50.2, indicating that the manufacturing sector's prosperity level continues to rise, reaching its highest level in nearly a year.

Beijing Xiangshan Forum Pre-Conference to be Held

At a routine press conference held by the Ministry of National Defense on the afternoon of April 24, spokesperson Zhang Xiaogang announced that the first "Beijing Xiangshan Forum Pre-Conference" will be held in Beijing from April 28 to 30, themed "Opportunities and Challenges Facing Global Security." More than 200 defense officials, experts, and media representatives from over 30 countries and international organizations will attend. Through multilateral discussions and dialogues, the forum aims to enhance international participation effectiveness and contribute wisdom to improve global security governance. During this period, bilateral and multilateral meetings and cultural and technological visits will also be arranged.

Huawei Innovation Data Infrastructure Forum

On April 28-29, the Huawei 2025 Innovation Data Infrastructure Forum (IDI Forum 2025) will be held in Munich, Germany, discussing how to build future-oriented intelligent infrastructure from strategic, industrial, and ecological perspectives.

The 8th Digital China Construction Summit

The 8th Digital China Construction Summit will introduce a sub-forum on Digital China and Intellectual Property for the first time. The forum will be held from April 29 to 30 at the Fuzhou Strait International Conference and Exhibition Center.

The forum will focus on the theme "The Future is Here: Intellectual Property in the Digital Age," exploring how to better promote the development of new productive forces, support comprehensive innovation, and high-quality industrial development. It will discuss the reform of the intellectual property system in the digital age, enhance the comprehensive governance capacity and level of intellectual property, and better assist in the construction of Digital China.

"Good House" National Standard to be Implemented

The national standard "Residential Project Specifications" will take effect on May 1, requiring residential project construction to aim for safety, comfort, greenness, and intelligence. It will regulate five key elements: project scale, layout, function, performance, and key technical measures. The standard stipulates that newly constructed residential buildings must have a floor height of no less than 3 meters, elevators for buildings with four or more floors; it improves the sound insulation performance of walls and floors; increases the net width of doorways for household and bathroom doors; raises the height of railings in balconies and other open areas; and requires public mobile communication signals to cover public spaces and elevator cabins.

The "Rural Collective Economic Organization Law" will take effect from May 1, 2025The law further clarifies the definition, functional positioning, member rights and obligations, organizational structure of rural collective economic organizations, as well as property management and profit distribution, which means that rural collective economic organizations in China have entered a stage of standardization and sustainable development.

A-share annual and quarterly report disclosure deadline

On April 30, the disclosure deadline for annual and quarterly reports of the Shanghai Stock Exchange main board, Sci-Tech Innovation Board, Shenzhen main board, ChiNext, and Beijing Stock Exchange will end. The disclosure time for the quarterly report must not be earlier than the previous year's annual report.

Domestic refined oil will enter a new round of price adjustment window

Starting from 24:00 on April 17, 2025, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be reduced by 480 yuan and 465 yuan per ton, respectively. On average nationwide, the prices of 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel will be reduced by 0.38 yuan, 0.4 yuan, and 0.4 yuan per liter, respectively. According to the "ten working days" principle, the next round of retail price adjustment for refined oil will be at 24:00 on April 30.

Xiaohongshu will cancel employee non-compete and "big and small week" work arrangements

On April 24, Xiaohongshu issued a letter to all employees stating that starting from May 1, it will no longer add cash or stock option non-compete agreements, all existing cash and stock option non-compete agreements will be released, and announced that Xiaohongshu employees can apply for repurchase of stock options upon resignation and cancel the arrangement of working every other Saturday.

Labor Day holiday, A-shares will be closed for 5 days

From May 1 to May 5 is the Labor Day holiday, and A-shares will be closed for 5 days.

The United States cancels small tariff exemptions

According to Securities Times, the Trump administration will terminate the tax exemption for small packages imported from mainland China and Hong Kong to the United States starting May 2.

Trump imposes tariffs on foreign auto parts

According to reports, starting May 3, Trump will impose import tariffs on auto parts produced outside the United States.

Australian federal election

Australia will hold a federal election on May 3, with early voting starting on April 22 local time. This election will produce a new House of Representatives for the Australian Federal Parliament, and a party must win at least 76 of the 150 seats in the House to gain the right to form a government. This is a new round of direct confrontation between the ruling party and the opposition in Australia.

Singapore general election

The voting day for Singapore's 2025 parliamentary election is set for May 3. Singapore's parliament operates on a unicameral system, with members elected by voters for a term of 5 years. The party that holds the majority of seats in parliament can form the government. The recently dissolved parliament was established in 2020 and is about to complete its term.

US-Iran talks

According to Xinhua News Agency, a new round of talks between the US and Iran may be held on May 3, with the specific location to be determined and notified to both parties by the Omani government.

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