Overnight U.S. Stocks | The three major indices recorded gains this week, with Tesla up 9.8%

According to Zhitong Finance APP, on Friday, the three major indices rose, marking the fourth consecutive trading day of gains, with all three recording increases this week. This week, the three major U.S. stock indices all recorded gains, with the Dow Jones rising 2.46%, the Nasdaq rising 6.73%, and the S&P 500 rising 4.59%. President Trump expressed hope to maintain tariffs between 20% and 50% a year later.

【U.S. Stocks】 As of the close, the Dow Jones rose 20.10 points, an increase of 0.05%, closing at 40,113.50 points; the Nasdaq rose 216.90 points, an increase of 1.26%, closing at 17,382.94 points; the S&P 500 rose 40.44 points, an increase of 0.74%, closing at 5,525.21 points. Tesla (TSLA.US) rose 9.8%, and Nvidia (NVDA.US) rose 4.3%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 0.4%, with XPeng (XPEV.US) down 3.5%.

【European Stocks】 The German DAX30 index rose 180.19 points, an increase of 0.82%, closing at 22,249.56 points; the UK FTSE 100 index rose 8.52 points, an increase of 0.10%, closing at 8,415.96 points; the French CAC40 index rose 33.48 points, an increase of 0.45%, closing at 7,536.26 points; the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 41.07 points, an increase of 0.80%, closing at 5,156.05 points; the Spanish IBEX35 index rose 183.04 points, an increase of 1.39%, closing at 13,354.34 points; the Italian FTSE MIB index rose 548.31 points, an increase of 1.49%, closing at 37,357.00 points.

【Foreign Exchange】 The ICE U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.35% cumulatively, closing at 99.580 points in New York on Friday (April 25), after dropping to 97.921 points in early European trading on Monday, followed by a continuous rebound on Tuesday and Wednesday, reaching 99.939 points after U.S. stock market hours on Wednesday, and then fluctuating at high levels. The Bloomberg Dollar Index rose 0.11% cumulatively, closing at 1,226.05 points, having dropped to 1,212.03 points on Monday, rebounding continuously on Tuesday and Wednesday, and then fluctuating at high levels, reaching 1,229.29 points at the end of trading in the Asia-Pacific region on Friday.

【Cryptocurrency】 Bitcoin rose over 1%, trading at $94,977.29; Ethereum rose over 1.5%, trading at $1,796.47. The new chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Gary Gensler, spoke at a cryptocurrency roundtable meeting at the regulatory agency in Washington, D.C., marking his first public appearance since officially taking office. He pointed out that the previous management of the SEC fostered uncertainty. "Unfortunately, due to market and regulatory uncertainty, innovation has been stifled over the past few years, and unfortunately, the SEC has contributed to this uncertainty." Gensler assured the cryptocurrency industry that he is ready to work with the U.S. Congress and the Trump administration to clarify regulations in this field. In his view, a "reasonable purpose framework" for regulation is key to promoting the development of the digital asset industry, including reducing risks.

【Metals】 Spot gold fell 0.99%, trading at $3,316.17 per ounce, with a cumulative decline of 0.30% this week, after rising to a historic high of $3,500.10 during the Asia-Pacific midday session on Tuesday and then retreating, fluctuating between $3,349 and $3,259 from Wednesday to Friday COMEX gold futures fell 0.65% to $3,326.70 per ounce, with a cumulative decline of 0.10% this week. On Tuesday, during the Asia-Pacific midday session, it had also risen to $3,509.90, setting an intraday historical high.

[Crude Oil] Light crude oil futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by 23 cents, closing at $63.02 per barrel, an increase of 0.37%; Brent crude oil futures for June delivery rose by 32 cents, closing at $66.87 per barrel, an increase of 0.48%.

[Macroeconomic News]

Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report: Global trade wars and policy uncertainty are the biggest risks to financial stability. The latest financial stability report released by the Federal Reserve on Friday shows that rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty, and the sustainability of U.S. debt top the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system. This is the first time since Trump returned to the White House that the Federal Reserve has conducted its semi-annual survey on financial risks. 73% of respondents indicated that global trade risks are their biggest concern, more than double the proportion in the November report. Half of the respondents believe that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, an increase from the same period last year. The survey also found that issues related to recent market volatility received more attention, with 27% of respondents concerned about the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market, up from 17% last fall. Concerns about foreign divestment from U.S. assets and the value of the dollar have also risen on the worry list.

“Federal Reserve Mouthpiece”: The market is overinterpreting Harker's comments on June rate cuts. “Federal Reserve Mouthpiece” Nick Timiraos stated that the comments made by Federal Reserve official Harker on Thursday attracted widespread attention, as some market participants overinterpreted them as a signal that the Fed might be ready to cut rates in June. Harker did not actually say that a June rate cut is imminent; when discussing the June rate cut, he mentioned two conditional phrases “if”: “If we get clear and compelling data before June, and if we know what action is right at that point in time, then I think the committee will act.” The danger of overly relying on these vague “if” assumptions is that they do not provide particularly clear answers.

The EU considers amending minimum tax laws to ease tensions with Trump. The EU will consider amending its law on a 15% minimum corporate tax next week to ease tensions with the United States. Documents show that officials will discuss several policy options that could significantly change the way EU laws are applied at a meeting next Tuesday. Their goal is to appease Trump, as the U.S. government does not want American companies to be bound by this law. The “Minimum Tax Directive” has been in effect for less than two years, imposing a 15% corporate tax benchmark across the EU, consistent with the 2021 agreement signed by over 140 countries, including the United States.

Bitcoin records the largest weekly gain since the U.S. election, outperforming U.S. stocks. Bitcoin has led a rebound in risk assets and is on track to achieve its largest weekly gain since Trump won the U.S. presidential election. As investors digest the impacts of Trump's trade war, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index rose about 5%, but Bitcoin has surged about 12% since last week, breaking the $95,000 mark for the first time since early March Jack Ostrowski, a trader at the cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute, stated: "Amid the ongoing fluctuations, the implied correlation within cryptocurrencies remains high." "Therefore, despite improvements across the market, it is clear that macro and geopolitical forces continue to be the main drivers of capital flows."

U.S. one-year inflation expectations have surged to the highest level since 1981. The consumer confidence index has declined for the fourth consecutive month, down 8% from March. Although the drop in the current conditions index in April was not significant, the expectations index fell sharply due to deteriorating personal financial and business conditions. Since January, the expectations index has plummeted by 32%, marking the largest three-month percentage decline since the 1990 recession. This month, the expectations of middle-income households have worsened particularly severely, with declines observed across a broad population of different ages, education levels, incomes, and political affiliations. Consumers perceive risks in multiple aspects of the economy, largely due to uncertainties in trade policy and the potential resurgence of inflation in the future. Labor market expectations remain bleak. More concerning is that consumers expect their income growth to slow in the coming year. The one-year inflation expectation final value surged from 5.0% last month to 6.5% this month, the highest level since 1981, marking a significant increase of 0.5 percentage points or more in inflation expectations for four consecutive months. Long-term inflation expectations rose from 4.1% in March to 4.4% in April.

【Stock News】

Tesla (TSLA.US) is refunding early reservation users in India, sparking market speculation that Musk will launch a new vehicle in India. Emails show that Tesla's India office is refunding early reservation users of the Model 3, raising speculation that the electric vehicle manufacturer is about to launch a new car in India. The email stated: "We would like to temporarily refund your reservation fee. We will reach out to the market again once we finalize our sales plan in India. We hope to see you again when we are ready to launch and deliver in your country." These emails came from Tesla's domain, signed as "Tesla India." According to a customer who received a call, Tesla is also calling users who reserved the Model 3. These reservations date back to 2016, and the refunds are due to the discontinuation of the old Model 3