U.S. Stock Outlook | Three Major Index Futures All Decline, Trump: Expects to Reach Trade Agreements with Some Countries in Three to Four Weeks

1. As of April 25th (Friday) before the US stock market opens, the three major US stock index futures are all down. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are down 0.44%, S&P 500 futures are down 0.26%, and Nasdaq futures are down 0.35%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 0.63%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.11%, the French CAC 40 index is up 0.42%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 0.53%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is down 1.37%, priced at $61.93 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 1.31%, priced at $65.68 per barrel.

Market News

Trump: Expects to reach trade agreements with some countries in three to four weeks. US President Trump stated that he hopes to reach trade agreements with American partners seeking to lower tariffs as soon as possible. In an interview on Friday discussing these deals, Trump said, "I would say we will have it done in the next three to four weeks." He added, "Now, some countries may ask for adjustments, and I will consider that, but I am basically ready." In a wide-ranging interview, Trump defended his trade policies, which have unsettled financial markets and prompted foreign governments to rush to Washington to reach agreements. Earlier this month, Trump announced a significant increase in tariffs on about 60 countries but quickly suspended these measures for three months to allow trade partners to negotiate, maintaining a 10% baseline tariff during the negotiation period.

Reports indicate the US seeks to reach trade agreements with India in 19 areas including e-commerce, agriculture, and data storage. According to informed sources, the ongoing US-India trade agreement discussions will cover 19 categories, including expanding market access for agricultural products, e-commerce, data storage, and critical minerals, marking a first step towards an agreement that could help the South Asian country avoid higher tariffs on its goods. Sources indicated that the bilateral agreement terms finalized this week include provisions for goods and services trade. They also noted that other so-called "chapters" covered in the trade agreement include issues of corruption and rules of origin. This preliminary agreement announced after US Vice President Pence met with Indian Prime Minister Modi in New Delhi on April 21 lays the groundwork for subsequent negotiations, with India hoping to delay the 26% retaliatory tariffs imposed by the US Global turmoil cannot stop confidence, U.S. stocks attract $154 billion, surpassing half of the global market. In 2025, the U.S. stock market has welcomed an unprecedented influx of funds. According to Goldman Sachs, as of now, $154 billion has flowed into the U.S. stock market, the highest figure since 2001. More significantly, this amount has exceeded half of the total $256 billion that has flowed into global stock markets so far in 2025, highlighting the attractiveness of the U.S. stock market. Karthik Jayanth of Goldman Sachs pointed out that such a large-scale influx of funds is rare. Amid increasing global uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and trade issues, investors remain confident in the U.S. economy and are pouring funds into the U.S. stock market.

Federal Reserve's dovish stance and easing tariff expectations lead to a strong three-day rally in U.S. stocks. On Thursday, U.S. stocks rose for the third consecutive trading day, led by technology stocks, as the market digested comments from Federal Reserve officials that heightened expectations for interest rate cuts. Major indices continued to rise following the possibility that Trump might cancel some of the most severe tariffs. Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell, stated, "For a market that has happily gotten used to a period of exceptionalism, what is needed to truly return to normalcy is (something that seems to be beyond Trump's reach) certainty." The S&P 500 index rose by 2.03%, and the Nasdaq 100 index rose by 2.74%. Data shows that the S&P 500 index has risen at least 1.5% for three consecutive days, marking the longest stretch of daily gains of 1.5% since 1974. The Chicago Board Options Exchange VIX volatility index hovered around 26.

Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs both bearish: the dollar enters a "long bear market." As the dollar resumed its decline after two consecutive days of gains, forex traders still held a negative view on the dollar. Options data indicated that the dollar's brief rebound was seen as a temporary squeeze on speculative short positions, with the market's structural view on the dollar remaining negative, suggesting that the dollar is expected to weaken further. In this context, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs both expressed a bearish outlook on the dollar, indicating that it seems to have entered a downward cycle.

Individual Stock News

Under tariff pressure, Colgate (CL.US) lowers growth targets, unexpected decline in Asia-Pacific sales drags down performance. Due to tariff expectations leading to an increase in annual costs by $200 million, Colgate has lowered its growth and profit expectations for 2025: organic sales growth has been revised down from 3%-5% to 2%-4% (below analysts' forecast of 3.4%), and profit growth has been adjusted from "low to mid-single digits" to "low single digits." The earnings report shows that although the gross margin is expected to remain around 60.6% (flat year-on-year, below analysts' expectation of 61%), tariff pressures will push up raw material and packaging costs. By region, North American business saw a decline greater than expected in the first quarter, with Asia-Pacific sales dropping 3.1% year-on-year (far below analysts' forecast of 2.6% growth), becoming a major drag. CEO Noel Wallace warned that tariffs and market volatility will continue to pose challenges AbbVie (ABBV.US) New Drug Dual Engine Drives Earnings Exceeding Expectations, Raises Annual Target but Warns of Tariff Risks. AbbVie's immunotherapy drugs Skyrizi and Rinvoq's strong sales drove first-quarter earnings above expectations, with Skyrizi sales reaching $3.43 billion (exceeding market expectations of $3.15 billion) and Rinvoq sales at $1.72 billion (exceeding expectations of $1.59 billion), effectively offsetting the performance decline of the core product Humira—whose global sales plummeted 50% year-on-year to $1.12 billion (below expectations of $1.32 billion), marking the third consecutive quarter of underperformance due to competition from biosimilars. Despite concerns in the industry over potential tariff policies from the Trump administration, AbbVie raised its adjusted profit forecast for 2025 to $12.09-$12.29 per share (previously $11.99-$12.19) and emphasized that the forecast does not account for any impacts from changes in trade policies.

Oil Service Giant Schlumberger (SLB.US) Q1 Profit Falls Short of Expectations, Signals Caution in the Industry. Schlumberger (SLB.US), the world's largest oilfield services company, reported first-quarter profits that did not meet analyst expectations, primarily due to a slowdown in demand for oilfield equipment and services in the Latin American market, leading to weak performance in its international business. The company also warned that economic uncertainty, increased oil price volatility, and rising tariff risks could lead to changes in the overall industry landscape. Schlumberger's revenue in the Latin America region fell 10% to $1.5 billion in Q1, causing its overall international revenue to decline 5% to $6.73 billion. In contrast, North America saw an 8% year-on-year revenue growth, mainly due to strong growth in data center infrastructure business and increased production measures, although weakness in U.S. onshore drilling partially offset this growth. Adjusted earnings per share for Q1 were $0.72, below the consensus estimate of $0.74.

Google (GOOGL.US) Q1 Revenue and Profit Exceed Expectations, Driven by AI and Cloud Computing Growth. Google achieved revenue of $90.23 billion this quarter, surpassing analyst expectations of $89.12 billion; earnings per share (EPS) were $2.81, well above the expected $2.01. Despite the overall strong performance, YouTube ad revenue was $8.93 billion, slightly below the expected $8.97 billion; Google Cloud revenue was $12.26 billion, also slightly below the market expectation of $12.27 billion. However, both business segments maintained good growth momentum, with year-on-year increases of 8.5% and 28%, respectively. Google's advertising business continued to show strong growth, with total ad revenue reaching $66.89 billion, an 8.5% year-on-year increase. Notably, the "Search and Other" segment performed particularly well, generating revenue of $50.7 billion, up 9.8% from $46.16 billion in the same period last year.

Demand Recovery May Be Short-lived! Intel (INTC.US) Q2 Guidance Falls Far Short of Expectations, Plans New Round of Layoffs. Intel's Q1 revenue was $12.7 billion, better than the market expectation of $12.3 billion; the company reported a loss of $0.19 per share, while the market expected a loss of $0.22 per share Intel made a weak forecast for its second-quarter performance and announced layoffs to align costs with the scale of its business. Data shows that Intel's adjusted gross margin for the first quarter was 39.2%, and it is expected to reach 36.5% in the second quarter. At its peak, Intel's gross margin often exceeded 60%. In contrast, Nvidia's gross margin is over 70%. Intel expects second-quarter revenue to be between $11.2 billion and $12.4 billion, significantly lower than the average analyst expectation of $12.9 billion, leading to a more than 6% drop in the stock after hours.

Falling iron ore prices "dragged down" Vale (VALE.US), with Q1 net profit down 17% year-on-year. Affected by the decline in iron ore prices, Vale's net revenue for the first quarter was $8.12 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, compared to analyst expectations of $8.03 billion; net profit fell 17% year-on-year to $1.39 billion, while analysts had previously expected $1.68 billion. Vale is one of the world's largest iron ore producers. In its financial report, Vale stated that its performance was impacted by falling iron ore prices and noted that the decline in iron ore production costs and the appreciation of the Brazilian real against the dollar partially offset this impact. The adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter was $3.12 billion, down 9% from the same period last year, close to the analyst expectation of $3.16 billion.

Under tariff impacts, PepsiCo (PEP.US) sounds the "consumer alarm" in the U.S. Facing headwinds from tariffs and pressure from the White House on some of its businesses, PepsiCo (PEP.US) lowered its full-year profit forecast due to unpredictable U.S. trade policies and deteriorating consumer confidence, which raised costs and weakened demand for the company's snacks and soft drinks. The company, which owns brands like Gatorade, Lipton, and Quaker, currently expects its earnings per share in 2025 to be flat compared to 2024 when calculated at fixed exchange rates, whereas the previous forecast anticipated single-digit growth. The company stated in a release on Thursday that it expects organic revenue to still show low single-digit growth, excluding certain items. PepsiCo reported a 1.8% decline in first-quarter sales to $17.9 billion. Organic sales growth, excluding currency fluctuations and acquisition impacts, was 1.2%.

Nomura (NMR.US) achieves revenue peaks alongside Wall Street giants! Q4 stock business revenue surged 27%, with profits hitting a record high in fiscal year 2025. Japan's largest brokerage and investment bank, Nomura, announced its fiscal year 2025 Q4 performance data on Friday, showing that Nomura's profit metrics exceeded market expectations, with the strongest contribution coming from stock trading profits. The Tokyo-based Nomura reported that for the three months ending March 31, 2025, its net profit saw a significant year-on-year increase of 27%, reaching 72 billion yen (approximately $5.01 billion). This figure surpassed the average expectation of 63.9 billion yen from five analysts compiled by Bloomberg.

Apple (AAPL.US) plans to achieve "India-made" iPhones for the U.S. market by 2026. According to informed sources, Apple (AAPL.US) plans to transfer all iPhones sold in the U.S. market to be produced in India as early as 2026 Indian media reports that in recent years, this tech giant has been continuously strengthening its manufacturing base in India, with Foxconn's new factory in Bangalore expected to start production later this month. However, against the backdrop of escalating Sino-U.S. trade tensions, Apple seems to be accelerating this process. Although the Trump administration has not imposed tariffs on smartphones, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that the current exemptions are only temporary policies. Apple is currently assembling phones in India through contract manufacturers such as Tata Electronics and Foxconn, but the core components of its flagship products still heavily rely on the Chinese supply chain.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 22:00: U.S. April Michigan University Consumer Confidence Index final value, U.S. April one-year inflation rate expectation final value.

The next day at 01:00 Beijing time: U.S. total number of active drilling rigs nationwide as of the week ending April 25.

The next day at 03:30 Beijing time: CFTC releases weekly positions report.

TBD: SEC Chairman Gary Gensler speaks at a cryptocurrency roundtable.

TBD: Global financial leaders attend the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings, until April 26