Breakfast | Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut heat up, stimulating a rise in U.S. stocks! High-performing Alphabet - C rises nearly 5% after hours

Market Overview

Comments from senior Federal Reserve officials have boosted market expectations for interest rate cuts, with U.S. stocks rising sharply for the third consecutive trading day, led by the Nasdaq Composite Index, which increased by more than 2.7%.

The Nasdaq has risen over 2% for three consecutive days, marking the first time since May 2001. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by more than 1%, with an increase of nearly 500 points.

Among tech stocks, Tesla closed up 3.50%, Amazon rose 3.29%, Meta Platforms increased by 2.48%, Nvidia rose 3.62%, Alphabet - C increased by 2.53%, Apple rose 1.84%, and Microsoft increased by 3.45%.

Additionally, after-hours earnings reports showed Alphabet - C's stock price jumped by as much as 6%, later settling to an increase of nearly 5%.

AI concept stocks surged, with Applovin closing up 6.15% and Tempus AI rising 7.97%.

Popular Chinese concept stocks saw significant gains, with Pony.ai rising nearly 40%, Fangdd increasing over 10%, Nio rising over 6%, and Pinduoduo, Bilibili, NetEase, and Baidu all rising over 2%.

Chinese Foreign Ministry: No consultations or negotiations between China and the U.S. on tariffs, let alone reaching an agreement

According to Xinhua News Agency, a reporter asked: Recently, there have been continuous reports from the U.S. side claiming that negotiations are underway between China and the U.S., and that an agreement may be reached. Can you confirm whether the two sides have started negotiations? Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiaqin stated that these are all false messages. "To my knowledge, there have been no consultations or negotiations between China and the U.S. on tariffs, let alone reaching an agreement."

Trump is considering a tiered tariff scheme against China. CCTV quoted The Wall Street Journal reporting that senior U.S. officials revealed that the Trump administration is considering various options. However, White House Press Secretary Levitt stated that Trump's position on tariffs against China has "not softened."

Federal Reserve Governor Waller: A severe decline in the job market could lead to more and faster interest rate cuts by the Fed

Waller stated that if the Trump administration re-implements aggressive tariff policies, companies may begin layoffs, and if the unemployment rate rises significantly, he would support interest rate cuts. Waller reiterated that he believes the inflation impact from tariffs may be temporary. His remarks significantly boosted U.S. stocks on Thursday. The "New Federal Reserve News Agency" pointed out that the difference between Powell and Waller currently is that Waller is willing to indicate that if the labor market deteriorates, he would be willing to overlook price increases caused by tariffs, while Powell has not clearly responded to this hypothesis.

Federal Reserve Officials: Action may be taken in June with clear and convincing data

Cleveland Fed President Hammack ruled out the possibility of a rate cut in May but stated that if economic data clearly shows direction, the Fed may take action as early as June.

Alphabet - C's Q1 report exceeds expectations, stock price jumped over 6% in after-hours trading

Alphabet - C's advertising business was strong, with net profit increasing by 46%, and continued to expand capital expenditures, announcing a $70 billion stock buyback.

The financial report showed that thanks to the sustained strong performance of its search advertising business, the company's revenue and profit both exceeded analysts' expectations, partially offsetting the impact of slowing growth in its cloud computing division. Specifically, Alphabet - C's Q1 revenue was $90.23 billion, higher than analysts' expectations of $89.1 billion; net profit was $34.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 46%; earnings per share were $2.81, far exceeding analysts' expectations of $2.01 In addition, Google's capital expenditure in the first quarter soared to $17.2 billion, up from $12 billion in the same period last year, and slightly above the market estimate of $17.1 billion. The company expects its total capital expenditure for 2025 to reach $75 billion for projects such as building data centers, a significant increase from $53 billion in 2024.

Intel Q1 Revenue Exceeds Expectations, Q2 Guidance Poor, Lowers Full-Year Capital Expenditure Target, Shares Plunge Nearly 8% After Hours

Intel's revenue in the first quarter was $12.67 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations of $12.31 billion; the adjusted gross margin was 39.2%, compared to over 60% during its peak; the net loss for the quarter was $800 million, with a loss per share of $0.19, better than the analysts' expected loss of $0.22 per share.

This is the first financial report released since Chen Liwu took over as CEO. The chip industry veteran took office last month, succeeding former CEO Pat Gelsinger, who left due to declining revenue and widening losses.

Despite Intel's better-than-expected performance in the first quarter, the company acknowledged that this performance might only be a temporary boost from concentrated customer purchases before potential tariffs are implemented, and it expects a weak outlook for the second quarter.

Data Center Projects Slowing Down? Amazon Denies, NVIDIA Supports: Only Seeing Increased Demand for AI Power

Amazon executives stated that there have not been significant changes to Amazon's data center plans, and they continue to see very strong demand. NVIDIA executives claimed they have not seen any pullback, and demand for computing and energy will only grow due to AI.

What Does Tesla Think?

JP Morgan: Knew it was bad, but not this bad, target price $115; Morgan Stanley: There are some challenges, but Musk is back, target price $410!

JP Morgan believes that Tesla's performance in the first quarter was far below expectations, with the deterioration of its fundamentals happening faster than anticipated, indicating that the growth story is over; Morgan Stanley, however, believes that despite the difficulties in first-quarter earnings, considering that Musk has shifted his focus back from DOGE to Tesla, the progress made by the company in autonomous driving and robotics is sufficient to support long-term valuation.

Procter & Gamble Significantly Lowers Full-Year Performance Guidance, U.S. Consumers Clearly Reducing Spending

Procter & Gamble's shares fell nearly 4% after announcing its full-year performance forecast for 2025.

Procter & Gamble expects a core earnings per share growth of 2%-4% for the year, down from a previous estimate of 5%-7%.

As a barometer for the consumer goods industry, Procter & Gamble currently expects total net sales for fiscal year 2025 to be roughly flat compared to the previous fiscal year, far below the earlier growth target of 2% to 4%.

Trump's comprehensive import tariff policy has caused turmoil in the global market, raising concerns about a recession in the U.S. economy. As Procter & Gamble's largest market, consumer sentiment in the U.S. is clearly deteriorating, with the company particularly noting a significant reduction in spending by American consumers in February and March.

Gold Prices Surge, World's Largest Gold Mining Company Q1 Profit Far Exceeds Expectations, Cash Flow Hits Record

Newmont's profit in the first quarter was $1.9 billion, compared to $179 million in the same period last year, an increase of nearly 11 times. Adjusted earnings per share reached $1.25, significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of $0.90. Gold production fell by 8.3%, but soaring gold prices drove profit growth

Adidas' Strongest First Quarter in History: Operating Profit Nearly Doubles, Performance Far Exceeds Nike

Adidas' operating profit for the first quarter was €610 million, compared to €336 million in the same period last year. Operating revenue grew by 13% year-on-year to €6.1 billion, setting a record for the highest sales in the company's history for the first quarter. In contrast, Nike predicted last month that revenue would see a "mid-double-digit percentage" decline for the current quarter ending in May.

The People's Bank of China Will Conduct 600 Billion Yuan MLF Operations on the 25th, Achieving a Net Injection of 500 Billion

This month, 100 billion yuan of MLF is set to mature. After conducting 600 billion yuan of MLF operations on April 25, a net injection of 500 billion yuan will be achieved. In March, the central bank's excessive rollover of MLF resulted in a net injection of 63 billion yuan, marking the first net injection of MLF since July 2024, demonstrating a moderately accommodative monetary policy stance.

Did the Market Win Against Trump This Time? Don't Celebrate Too Early

Media analysis suggests that Trump can bear significant risks before changing policies, and it remains uncertain whether this shift in policy direction is due to market reasons. He might listen to other advisors next time or suddenly have a new idea, leading to different decisions. Investors should not assume they can control presidential decisions and should remain cautious to avoid overconfidence.

Musk and Yellen Engage in Heated Argument: Expletives Fly

According to media reports on Thursday, just last week, Musk and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen engaged in a heated exchange of insults in front of Trump and several White House officials, with expletives flying in what can only be described as a "F***" filled confrontation!

Sources revealed that the usually mild-mannered Yellen was completely enraged, shouting, "F*** you!" Musk retorted loudly, "Say it louder!"

The argument escalated to personal attacks, with Yellen accusing Musk of overpromising and under-delivering on budget cuts related to DOGE! Musk did not back down, directly calling Yellen a "Soros agent" and mocking her for previously running a failed hedge fund, despite Trump having previously praised Yellen's financial acumen.

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Increased by 9.2% in March, the Largest Increase in Eight Months; Capital Goods Orders Grew Only 0.1% Amid Tariff Concerns

Capital goods orders stagnated, indicating that businesses have become more cautious amid the uncertainty of the Trump administration's tariff and tax policies. In March, shipments of non-defense capital goods, including aircraft, fell by 1.9%, marking the largest decline since October of last year, which will directly impact the GDP data to be released next week, raising concerns about the U.S. economic growth outlook.

U.S. Existing Home Sales Saw the Largest Decline Since 2022 in March, the Lowest March Since 2009

Despite the recovery of existing home supply from a low level, the median sales price of existing homes in March still rose by 2.7% year-on-year, reaching $403,700, a historical high for March