U.S. durable goods orders rose 9.2% month-on-month in March, the largest increase in 8 months, while orders for capital goods grew only 0.1% amid tariff concerns

The data on durable goods orders in the United States for March shows a clear "polarization" phenomenon: overall durable goods orders surged by 9.2% month-on-month, marking the largest increase since July of last year, but core capital goods orders, which represent companies' actual investment intentions, only slightly increased by 0.1%. This indicates that companies have become more cautious amid the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's tariff and tax policies.

Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Thursday showed that the preliminary month-on-month durable goods orders for March were 9.2%, the largest increase since July 2024, significantly exceeding the expected 2%, with the previous value revised down from 1% to 0.9%. Among them, orders for commercial aircraft surged by 139%, also setting a record for the largest increase since July of last year.

However, at the same time, the preliminary month-on-month orders for durable goods excluding transportation were 0%, falling short of the expected 0.3% and significantly lower than the previous month's 0.7%; core capital goods orders (excluding non-defense capital durable goods for aircraft) — an important indicator of business equipment investment — had a preliminary month-on-month value of 0.1%, in line with expectations, while the February data was revised down to -0.3%. The shipment volume of core capital goods excluding defense and aircraft rose by 0.3%, showing a significant slowdown compared to the revised 0.7% increase in February.

This noticeable slowdown indicates that companies had already adopted a cautious attitude towards their business investments before Trump announced comprehensive tariff measures in early April. The ongoing fluid trade policies have exacerbated uncertainty, putting corporate capital expenditure plans in jeopardy and raising concerns about the economic outlook.

Aircraft Orders Mask Weak Fundamentals, Manufacturing Surveys Show Tough Road Ahead

The 9.2% growth in overall durable goods orders in March was primarily driven by the astonishing 139% jump in commercial aircraft orders, which masked broader weaknesses in business investment.

Boeing reported receiving 192 orders in March, the highest since the end of 2023, a significant increase from the previous month's 13. However, as the trade war escalates, future orders may be impacted.

Manufacturing survey data further deepens concerns about the economic outlook. The S&P Global factory index for April has hovered at stagnation levels for the second consecutive month, while the Philadelphia region manufacturing index plummeted nearly 39 points this month, indicating the most severe contraction in two years.

Capital Shipment Volume Declines by Largest Amount in Five Months, GDP Growth Outlook Threatened

The government uses shipment volume data as an input for gross domestic product, reflecting the payment time. The shipment volume of core capital goods excluding defense and aircraft rose by 0.3%, showing a significant slowdown compared to the revised 0.7% increase in February.

The shipment volume of non-defense capital goods, including aircraft — which directly affects the equipment investment portion of the GDP report — fell by 1.9%, the largest decline since October of last year. This latest data, dragged down by commercial aircraft, indicates economic weakness in March, which will impact the preliminary GDP estimate to be released by the government next week Before the durable goods report was released, the GDPNow forecast from the Atlanta Federal Reserve indicated that business equipment spending would contribute nearly 0.8 percentage points this quarter, marking the largest contribution since the end of 2020.

Meanwhile, separate data released by the Labor Department on Thursday showed that initial claims rose slightly, but the data indicates that there are currently no signs of widespread layoffs