U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Decline, Google and Intel to Release Earnings After Hours

1. As of April 24th (Thursday) before the US stock market opens, the three major US stock index futures are all down. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are down 0.47%, S&P 500 futures are down 0.31%, and Nasdaq futures are down 0.26%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 0.07%, the UK FTSE 100 index is down 0.04%, the French CAC40 index is down 0.14%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 0.18%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 1.25%, priced at $63.05 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 1.03%, priced at $66.80 per barrel.

Market News

Jefferies reveals a new watershed in US stock market speculation, will bulls and bears battle at 5500 points? Recently, the US stock market has experienced violent fluctuations, primarily influenced by President Donald Trump's repeated stance changes on tariff issues, leaving many investors on Wall Street at a loss. For Jefferies technical analyst Daniel Kirsch, this volatility makes it particularly important to identify key levels through chart analysis. In his view, the key level to watch now is 5500—the S&P 500 index must break through this level to recover half of the 19% decline since the historical high in February. The index closed below 5000 points two weeks ago, nearly entering a bear market, but has since rebounded to 5376 points. If it breaks through 5500 points (requiring an increase of just over 2% from Wednesday's closing price), it would not only essentially erase all declines in April but also signify to Kirsch that trading strategies are shifting from "selling on highs" to "buying on lows."

Before the implementation of Trump's tariff policy, American consumers are in a "car buying frenzy"! Japanese cars see a surge in sales in the US. Latest statistics show that core automotive brands headquartered in Japan saw a sharp increase in car sales in the US market in March, mainly because American consumers rushed to buy vehicles ahead of President Donald Trump's tariffs on imported cars. According to data released on Thursday, Toyota Motor Corporation (TM.US) saw a year-on-year sales increase of 8% in the US market in March, reaching 231,336 vehicles; Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC.US) saw a 13% jump in US sales. Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. (NSANY.US) experienced a 10% increase in sales in the US market, significantly mitigating the negative impact of a 3.4% decline in global sales to 353,463 vehicles Jefferies: The "glory days" of US stocks are over, and the market may continue to decline. Christopher Wood, Global Equity Strategist at Jefferies, stated that US stocks have long passed their "golden era," and investors should prepare for further declines in US stocks, US bonds, and the US dollar. Wood pointed out that the market capitalization of US stocks in the MSCI All Country World Index reached a historical high at the end of December last year. He believes that "US stocks have peaked" and compares them to the Japanese stock market in 1989, stating that "the dollar has entered a long-term depreciation trend, which will reduce the market capitalization of US stocks in the global market." Wood advises investors to consider increasing their allocation to assets in China, India, and Europe when rebalancing their portfolios. This veteran strategist's pessimistic view of the US market resonates with the prevailing pessimism globally.

Harmark speaks out: The Federal Reserve should continue to reduce its balance sheet, and monetary policy needs to remain stable. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Harmark stated on Wednesday that the current situation still supports the Federal Reserve's continued reduction of its balance sheet. She also mentioned that now is not the time to change monetary policy amid significant uncertainty. Harmark stated that "now is not a good time for preemptive action" in monetary policy and added that it is time to be patient and see how the data unfolds before taking action on interest rates. Harmark elaborated on her views regarding the Fed's balance sheet at a monetary market expert conference at New York University. She stated, "There still seems to be enough reserves in our system, so there is no need for active management." Harmark noted that the large scale of assets held by the Federal Reserve poses risks to financial stability. The process of the Fed reducing its holdings is widely referred to as Quantitative Tightening (QT).

Trump Coin surges! Trump to host dinner for coin holders: Opportunity to hear firsthand news, top 25 will receive VIP treatment. The meme coin launched by President Trump—Trump Coin—surged 50% in the past 24 hours after the official website announced on Wednesday that it would invite the top 220 holders of the coin to dinner at a golf club near Washington on May 22, claiming an opportunity to hear "firsthand" information from Trump about the future of cryptocurrency. Additionally, the top 25 investors by holding amount will receive private reception from Trump and a "special edition" White House tour. The announcement urged participants to "hold as much Trump Coin as possible" before May 12. The website stated, "The more Trump Coin you hold and the longer you hold it, the higher your ranking will be."

Tariffs changing again? White House: Trump considers exempting some tariffs on auto parts. The White House confirmed on Wednesday that President Trump is considering exempting some of the most severe tariffs on auto manufacturers. Additionally, media reports indicate that Trump intends to exempt some tariffs on auto parts, including tariffs on imported steel and aluminum products. According to insiders, this move by Trump is referred to as "destacking" of tariffs. Reports indicate that this exemption does not include the 25% tariff on imported complete vehicles and does not affect the 25% tariff on imported auto parts set to take effect on May 3 In addition, it was reported that Trump stated on Wednesday that the 25% tariff on cars imported from Canada to the United States may increase.

Individual Stock News

Merck (MRK.US) Q1 performance exceeds expectations, expects a $200 million loss due to tariffs in 2025. Merck's Q1 performance exceeded expectations. The financial report shows that the company's Q1 sales reached $15.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%, higher than the analyst forecast of $15.3 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were $2.22, above the expected $2.13 per share. The company also stated that due to the China-U.S. tariff war, it expects to incur a $200 million loss in 2025 due to the announced tariffs.

American Airlines (AAL.US) withdraws 2025 profit guidance: losses widen under economic headwinds. American Airlines withdrew its 2025 profit guidance on Thursday. Under the dual impact of tariff policy pressures and uncertainty in government spending, consumers' disposable budgets are facing challenges, making it difficult for airlines to accurately predict future travel demand. The financial report shows that this traditional airline giant had a net loss of $473 million (equivalent to $0.72 per share) in Q1 this year, further widening from a loss of $312 million (equivalent to $0.48 per share) in the same period last year. The company had previously predicted an annual adjusted earnings per share of $1.70 to $2.70.

Tariffs + weak consumption hit, Procter & Gamble (PG.US) growth expectations "cut in half." Procter & Gamble has lowered its annual organic sales growth expectation from 3%-5% to 2% due to tariff pressures and fluctuations in consumer demand. The total sales for the recent quarter were $19.8 billion, with organic sales remaining flat. A slight increase in beauty care product sales drove a 1% price increase, but baby and feminine care categories faced pressure. The company expects earnings per share of $6.72-6.82 for the current fiscal year, lower than previous expectations. Although the company has reduced tariff risks through supply chain adjustments (90% of products produced domestically in the U.S.), raw materials and finished products imported from China, which account for 15%, are still impacted by high tariffs.

Key drug Dupixent drives growth, Sanofi (SNY.US) Q1 performance exceeds expectations. Sanofi's Q1 profits exceeded expectations, thanks to strong demand for its key dermatology and asthma drug Dupixent. The financial report shows that Sanofi's Q1 revenue was €9.89 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%, exceeding expectations by €120 million; adjusted earnings per share were €1.79 (equivalent to $2.03), higher than the analyst estimate of €1.67. Nearly half of Sanofi's €9.9 billion sales in the quarter came from the U.S. market, highlighting its reliance on the world's largest pharmaceutical market. Thanks to a 20% increase in Dupixent sales to €3.5 billion (slightly exceeding analyst expectations), the company's total quarterly revenue surpassed market estimates.

Tariffs + concerns over U.S. government cost-cutting persist! IBM (IBM.US) Q1 performance better than expected. The "blue giant" IBM's performance is not strong enough to quell investors' concerns that tariffs and reduced spending by the U.S. federal government will weaken the company's business. IBM announced on Wednesday that Q1 sales grew nearly 1% to $14.5 billion, better than market expectations; Excluding certain projects, the earnings per share is $1.60, better than market expectations. IBM CEO Arvind Krishna stated in a conference call following the earnings report, "In the short term, uncertainty may lead customers to halt transactions." However, he noted that the company "has not yet seen a substantial change in customer purchasing behavior."

Rising gold prices offset production declines, Newmont Corporation (NEM.US) Q1 earnings exceed expectations. The world's largest gold mining company, Newmont Corporation, reported better-than-expected earnings for the first quarter of 2025, as rising gold prices helped offset the impact of declining production. Newmont's earnings report released on Wednesday showed first-quarter sales of $5.01 billion, a 25% increase from $4.02 billion in the same period last year. Adjusted net income was $1.404 billion, up 123% from $630 million a year earlier; adjusted earnings per share were $1.25, higher than $0.55 a year ago and better than the average analyst expectation of $0.90.

Texas Instruments (TXN.US) delivers "excellent results" under tariff challenges, Q2 guidance exceeds expectations. Texas Instruments, the world's largest analog chip manufacturer, announced better-than-expected guidance for second-quarter performance due to improved demand for industrial and automotive components. The company stated in a release on Wednesday that second-quarter revenue is expected to reach $4.17 billion to $4.53 billion, exceeding Wall Street's average expectation of $4.12 billion; second-quarter earnings per share are projected to be $1.21 to $1.47, with an expectation of $1.21. The company is among the first to report earnings in a wave of tech stocks, signaling a hopeful sign for the chip industry. First-quarter revenue grew 11% year-on-year to $4.07 billion, and earnings per share increased 7% year-on-year to $1.28; in contrast, the market's average expectation was sales revenue of $3.91 billion and earnings per share of $1.07.

Competitors claim Google's (GOOGL.US) Chrome could be worth over $50 billion, but fear no one could "handle" a split. In the U.S. Department of Justice's antitrust trial against internet giant Google (GOOGL.US) on Wednesday, a competitor of the Google browser, DuckDuckGo's CEO, stated that the Google Chrome browser could be valued at up to $50 billion. DuckDuckGo operates a privacy-focused search engine and browser. CEO Gabriel Weinberg stated, "I believe if Chrome were put on the market, its value would exceed $50 billion, which is far beyond what DuckDuckGo could handle." Weinberg also mentioned that this valuation is a "rough estimate" based on Chrome's user base.

TSMC (TSM.US) to begin production using advanced A14 chip technology in 2028. TSMC plans to start production using the A14 manufacturing process in 2028, aiming to maintain its leading position in the chip industry. This technology will enable the world's largest chip manufacturer to surpass its current most advanced 3-nanometer process and the upcoming 2-nanometer process set to launch later this year. TSMC also plans to introduce an intermediate A16 process by the end of 2026

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 20:30: U.S. March durable goods orders month-on-month preliminary value (%), U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending April 19 (10,000), U.S. March Chicago Fed National Activity Index change.

Beijing time 22:00: U.S. March existing home sales annualized total (10,000 units).

Beijing time 22:30: U.S. EIA natural gas inventory change for the week ending April 11 (billion cubic feet).

Beijing time 23:00: U.S. April Kansas Fed Manufacturing Composite Index.

To be determined: Trump states that the U.S. and Ukraine will sign a mineral agreement.

Next day early morning Beijing time 00:10: G20 ministers hold a press conference during the IMF/World Bank Spring Meeting.

Next day early morning Beijing time 05:00: 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks.

Earnings Forecast

Friday morning: Alphabet (GOOGL.US), Intel (INTC.US), Vale (VALE.US)

Friday pre-market: Nomura (NMR.US), AbbVie (ABBV.US), Colgate (CL.US), Schlumberger (SLB.US)