The tariff stick cannot suppress the AI-driven wave of device replacement. Is Apple and the "Apple supply chain" stock price counterattack reaching a climax?

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, as the Trump administration temporarily exempts core electronic products such as smartphones, personal computers, and high-performance server chips from so-called "reciprocal tariffs," investor sentiment in U.S. tech stocks has significantly improved recently. This is especially true for Apple and Nvidia, two tech giants that heavily rely on the global supply chain system, with bullish market sentiment making a strong comeback. This has also led to a substantial rise in the stock prices of important companies in the global "Apple manufacturing and supply chain" and "Nvidia AI server manufacturing and supply chain."

Recently, Trump stated that he has no intention of firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and does not intend to interfere with the Fed's independence. He also revealed plans to "significantly reduce" high tariffs on China, leading to further rebounds in stocks and other risk assets. As of Wednesday's market close, U.S. stocks, bonds, and currencies all rose, with the "Magnificent Seven" index, which includes tech giants like Apple and Nvidia, rising over 3%. The Nasdaq 100 index, which has a high weight of the "Magnificent Seven," rebounded more than 5% over two days.

Looking ahead to the global tech stock trend, the stock prices of core suppliers in the "Apple supply chain," such as those producing iPhones and other consumer electronics, are expected to follow the new round of consumer electronics upgrade demand driven by Apple's AI features (i.e., Apple Intelligence) and the " pre-purchase wave" initiated by global consumers before Trump formally establishes tariff policies for the semiconductor and tech industries. Apple's valuation and fundamental expectations are likely to re-enter an upward trajectory driven by the new replacement cycle powered by Apple Intelligence, pre-stocking of iPhones, Apple's strong closed-loop ecosystem, supply chain resilience, and strong bargaining power.

Goldman Sachs recently released a research report stating that the new round of iPhone replacement cycle driven by Apple's AI features has begun, and consumer concerns about tariff policies have significantly strengthened the logic of preemptive demand for Apple's consumer electronics products. The innovation of iPhone 16e/M4 chip products is expected to drive a new round of iPhone and Mac sales channel inventory replenishment. Additionally, with Apple's strongest brand loyalty globally, continuous product/module innovation, and significant growth in service business, it is expected to maintain a strong performance growth trend.

Therefore, Goldman Sachs' analysis team expects that in F2Q25 (the second fiscal quarter of Apple's fiscal year 2025), earnings per share (EPS) will reach $1.64 (exceeding Wall Street's average expectation of $1.61), and revenue is expected to reach $95.4 billion (surpassing the average expectation of $94 billion). Goldman Sachs anticipates that the main drivers of Apple's Q2 performance growth in the second fiscal quarter will come from a year-on-year increase of 10% in iPhone shipments, revenue from the Mac series benefiting from new products based on M4, and the iPad Air price increase strategy expected to show significant results. The CAGR of service businesses like iCloud is expected to continue building Apple's ecological moat with at least a 10% expectation (annual compound growth rate of at least 10%).

![1745488724(1).png](https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20250424/1745488733811122.png? Goldman Sachs' stock analyst team maintains the most optimistic "buy" rating for Apple stock, slightly lowering the 12-month target price from $259 to $256, indicating that Goldman Sachs remains bullish on Apple's stock price. As of Wednesday's market close, Apple's stock price was $204.600, suggesting a potential upside of up to 25% in Apple's stock price over the next year, according to Goldman Sachs. In terms of valuation, Goldman Sachs stated that relative to Apple's historical average valuation—both absolute and relative—and compared to the other six major tech giants, Apple's current valuation holds strong investment appeal for global capital.

Goldman Sachs Forecasts Apple's Q2 Performance: AI iPhone to Drive EPS Above Expectations, Focus on Demand Surge Due to Tariffs

Goldman Sachs' research team indicated that the strong growth expectations for Apple's performance primarily stem from: (1) A new replacement cycle driven by Apple Intelligence, and the replenishment of inventory for new products such as the iPhone 16e, MacBook Air/Mac Studio/iPad based on the M4 chip to meet the continuously strong demand exceeding expectations; (2) The significant advance in iPhone demand due to tariff concerns "strengthening the replacement logic"; (3) The ongoing trend of intensified competition among U.S. carriers leading to increased bundling promotions for iPhones; (4) The sustained strong performance of the services business relying on Apple's robust Apple ecosystem moat.

For the iPhone revenue, which contributes the most to Apple's performance, Goldman Sachs expects Q2 iPhone revenue to be approximately $47.8 billion (a year-on-year increase of 4%), exceeding Wall Street's average expectation of $45.6 billion. Goldman Sachs stated that the growth in iPhone revenue should be driven by a 10% year-on-year increase in sales, thanks to (1) the launch of the iPhone 16e, which is more affordable and does not belong to the flagship model; (2) The concentration of demand due to the significant uncertainty of U.S. tariff policies, as well as the AI-driven replacement cycle Goldman's iPhone sales forecast is consistent with the expectations of market research firms IDC/Canalys (a year-on-year growth of 10%). Additionally, Apple's service revenue is expected to grow by 11% year-on-year to $26.5 billion (compared to Wall Street consensus expectations of $26.7 billion), driven by an anticipated approximately 13% year-on-year growth in App Store billing and a combined expected year-on-year growth of 44% in iCloud+, AppleCare+, Apple One subscriptions, and Apple Pay. Goldman expects Apple TV+ revenue in F2Q25 to reach as high as $1.5 billion, with subscription users possibly exceeding 60 million.

In terms of the Mac business line, Goldman expects F2Q25 revenue to be approximately $7.7 billion (indicating a year-on-year growth of 3%), with the new M4 products expected to drive a significant overall shipment increase of 15% for the Mac series. For Apple's iPad business line, Goldman's analysis team expects F2Q25 revenue to be approximately $6.1 billion (indicating a year-on-year growth of 9%), with ASP expected to exceed expectations with a year-on-year increase of 5% (premium strategy for the iPad Air 13-inch).

Goldman expects Apple's overall gross margin for the fiscal year 2025 to be 47.1% (compared to the consensus expectation of 47.1%), which is in the middle of the performance guidance range (46.5%-47.5%). Furthermore, Apple's management may announce a new stock repurchase authorization, which is expected to significantly boost market bullish sentiment towards Apple's stock price; Apple typically announces new repurchase plans in the second fiscal quarter, such as last year when it announced a new stock repurchase authorization of up to $110 billion in the second fiscal quarter of 2024).

Regarding the core points of contention about Apple's performance and future outlook, Goldman, after in-depth communication with institutional investors and ongoing market research, stated that the points of contention regarding Apple's fundamental outlook are as follows:

(1) Tariff impacts may strike again. The tariff exemptions for smartphones/PCs and other electronic products on April 11 will temporarily alleviate tariff impacts, but the U.S. Department of Commerce's Section 232 semiconductor investigation may lead to new tariff policies targeting the semiconductor and other technology sectors (if semiconductor tariffs are introduced, smartphones/PCs will inevitably be affected). It is reported that the U.S. Department of Commerce has initiated an investigation into the impact of imported pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, smartphones, and other downstream products on U.S. national security under Trump's authorization, which is widely seen as a prelude to imposing tariffs on the global pharmaceutical and semiconductor industries and may further escalate the global trade war initiated by the Trump administration.

(2) Demand resilience test. Against the backdrop of recession risks (Goldman predicts a 45% probability of a U.S. economic recession within 12 months), the specific demand growth process for the new replacement cycle may not meet expectations, creating a dynamic balance between potential foldable smartphones and innovations like the iPhone 17 and the weak consumer spending in a recessionary environment (3) Antitrust tail risks. The U.S. Department of Justice's antitrust case against Google may require Google to significantly adjust its TAC agreement with Apple, but the Goldman Sachs analysis team still maintains its existing TAC-related revenue forecasts (CAGR of 10% from 2024 to 2029, reaching approximately $37.5 billion). It is reported that in an antitrust ruling report, a U.S. judge pointed out that Google illegally dominated the online search and online advertising market by paying over $26 billion to technology companies like Apple and other stakeholders to make its search engine the default browser option on smartphones and web browsers, effectively blocking any other competitors' path to success.

The new round of replacement cycle driven by Apple Intelligence has just begun

Goldman Sachs stated that Apple's stock price has fallen by 20% since the beginning of 2025 (as of April 22, 2025), significantly underperforming the U.S. stock market—the S&P 500 index, which fell by 10% during the same period. The main logic behind this is the heightened concerns about gross margins and revenue growth due to intense competition in the Chinese market, as well as the uncertainties brought by tariff policies—these factors impact Apple due to its global supply chain layout.

Although market sentiment has improved since the U.S. Department of Commerce announced tariff exemptions for smartphones and personal computers on April 11 (Apple's stock price rebounded nearly 8% from April 4 to April 22), the market generally believes that the uncertainties of tariff policies and performance growth prospects remain a sword of Damocles hanging over the stock.

The Goldman Sachs analysis team stated, the new round of replacement cycle driven by Apple Intelligence has quietly begun, expected to drive Apple's performance into a significant upward growth trajectory since the second half of the year. Goldman Sachs predicts that by mid-year, market sentiment may significantly heat up, with the financial market's focus shifting to the new generation iOS system to be released before the end of the year and the more powerful "Apple Intelligence" feature module after updates, as well as the upcoming iPhone 17 series to be released in the fall of 2025. Goldman Sachs expects these factors will drive bullish sentiment towards Apple's stock price and the entire "Apple ecosystem."

Integrating large AI models with consumer electronics such as PCs and smartphones to create models capable of running offline inference performance on local devices, while also leveraging vast cloud AI computing resources to meet users' deeper personal needs with "edge AI," has become the core content of many global technology companies' "AI planning blueprint."

In the vision of Apple fans for Siri's updates, with the support of cloud and edge AI large models, Apple's Siri may no longer be a clumsy formal voice assistant. By combining cloud AI computing resources with edge generative artificial intelligence capabilities, Apple's iPhone models are expected to achieve a "personal AI assistant" that better meets individual user needs, similar to the "omnipotent AI companion" in the movie "HER." Apple Inc. has stated that the updated Siri voice assistant will be able to utilize users' personal information to answer questions and perform actions across various applications.

Mark Gurman, an Apple product leaker who has accurately revealed iPhone update details multiple times, recently wrote that Apple is about to start analyzing "customer device-side data" to improve its consumer electronics AI platform, such as the iPhone—this so-called Apple Intelligence AI module. This latest exclusive initiative aims to protect user information security while helping the company catch up with competitors in AI smartphones and other edge AI devices, as well as in the generative AI field.

Recently, many AI research teams have pointed out that over-reliance on synthetic data has significant flaws, such as actual generative AI tools misreading notification information and, in some cases, failing to provide accurate text summaries. These have been core factors criticized by some users since the launch of Apple's Apple Intelligence feature.

Theoretically, a new system validated and verified in the real world could significantly enhance the overall performance of Apple Intelligence, which will be a key step for Apple Intelligence to become a strong competitor in the AI field. It is worth noting that the generative AI products launched by Apple's AI team have long lagged behind competing AI smartphones and large AI models like OpenAI. Recently, Apple has even reorganized the management of its digital AI-enabled Siri voice assistant and related software business.

According to smartphone survey data from AlphaWise, a division of Morgan Stanley, Apple's next-generation advanced Siri digital assistant is widely regarded by consumers as the "number one AI application" driving iPhone upgrades. AlphaWise survey results show that "gaining more advanced AI features" has entered the top five driving forces for smartphone upgrades for the first time. Among them, "the upgraded Siri digital assistant" is the most interesting Apple Intelligence feature among the potential iPhone 16 buyers globally, surpassing the importance of image-related optimizations, ChatGPT integration, and other AI features.

It is understood that Morgan Stanley released a report on Tuesday stating that the Apple Intelligence feature has received high recognition from American consumers. The latest AlphaWise survey data shows that the user acceptance of Apple Intelligence is "better than expected," with consumers' awareness of its features significantly increasing and showing a clear willingness to pay. Survey data indicates that in the past six months, nearly 80% of eligible American iPhone users have downloaded and used the Apple Intelligence feature, with most users rating it as easy to operate, innovative, and significantly enhancing the user experience Morgan Stanley AlphaWise research report shows that American consumers are willing to pay an average of $9.11 per month for unlimited use of Apple Intelligence, an increase of 11% compared to the survey data from September 2024. In addition, the survey also indicates that nearly 42% of respondents believe that the next generation iPhone having Apple Intelligence features is extremely or very important; among users who may replace their iPhone in the next 12 months, this proportion rises to 54%.