What made Trump "back down" behind the "second 180-degree turnaround"?

Overnight US "stocks, bonds, and currencies" fully rebound, with risk sentiment clearly improving. The three major US stock indices rose over 1%, the US dollar index increased nearly 100, and the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond declined during the day.

Behind this sudden market frenzy, two major concerns in the market over the past few weeks have turned around: Trump's softened stance on tariff policies and his change in comments regarding Powell.

According to CCTV News on Wednesday, Trump stated on the 22nd local time that he would "significantly reduce" the high tariffs on China. According to a report by The Guardian, Trump's remarks were a response to comments made earlier on the 22nd by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who stated that high tariffs are unsustainable.

On Tuesday, Trump also "backtracked," saying he has no plans to fire Powell and that now is an excellent time to cut interest rates.

Behind Trump's "surrender" is the pressure from turbulent financial markets, warnings from business leaders, and frequent alarming economic data signals.

Business Leaders' Warnings, Corporate Confidence Collapses

According to media reports on Thursday citing informed sources, Trump abandoned his tough tariff rhetoric the day after meeting with executives from Walmart, Home Depot, and Target. These executives indicated that import taxes could disrupt supply chains and drive up product prices. One informed source noted that Trump seemed to resonate with warnings that store shelves could be empty within weeks.

Additionally, when asked who the president consults regarding tariffs and trade policy, Yellen stated that Trump "constantly seeks the opinions of business leaders," mentioning visits from major retailers and revealing that "the three major German automakers also visited on Friday."

It is worth mentioning the reaction from the business community, the pessimism among US CEOs is comparable to that during the financial crisis, with nearly every company lowering its forecasts. Other data shows that 27% of S&P 500 companies have downgraded their earnings expectations for 2025, while only 9% have raised their expectations.

The collective actions of business leaders indicate that the business community is actively lobbying to influence policy direction. However, it is well-known that Trump can easily change his mind, and his stance may shift again.

Frequent Warning Signals in Data: Increased Risk of Hard Landing, Significant Rise in Inflation Expectations

Affected by the uncertainty brought about by Trump's tariff policies, Americans' outlook on the economy has deteriorated, with survey data showing a surge in future inflation expectations. Many analysts also hold a pessimistic view of the US economic outlook.

Data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) shows that US manufacturing activity contracted last month. The April manufacturing activity survey from the Richmond Fed indicated that overall business conditions plummeted to -30, while the Philadelphia Fed's non-manufacturing survey index fell sharply to -42.7 in AprilData from the New York Federal Reserve shows that manufacturing activity in New York contracted for the second consecutive month in April.

Survey data indicates that future inflation expectations have surged. Powell previously stated that the announced tariff increases exceeded expectations, and these tariffs could lead to a temporary rise in inflation at least. He and other Federal Reserve officials have indicated their willingness to maintain interest rates unchanged while awaiting clarity on the economic impact of the tariffs.

Wall Street analysts have quickly adjusted their economic forecasts, with major investment banks such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan all lowering their U.S. GDP growth expectations while raising inflation expectations. The consensus view is that the implementation of aggressive tariff policies will lead to a reduction in U.S. economic growth rates by at least 0.3-0.5 percentage points, while core inflation rates will rise by 0.4-0.6 percentage points.

How the Market Predicts Policy Direction: Focus on These Key Indicators

For investors, the key to predicting policy direction lies in monitoring several core indicators. Goldman Sachs' latest research found that initial unemployment claims, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, the ISM Services Index, and the unemployment rate are the best indicators for warning of an economic slowdown. These indicators typically signal a recession just one month after it begins, while hard data such as GDP takes four months to show significant weakness.

The performance of these indicators is superior to other data because they are released frequently, have small revisions, and can be published earlier. Initial unemployment claims are released every Thursday, and unemployment rate data will be released next week.

Traders should also closely monitor the meeting arrangements between Trump and business leaders. Past data indicates that subtle changes in policy tone often occur after such meetings. All of this may provide key clues for future policy direction.

A key question being hotly debated in the market is: Is this a real policy shift, or just a temporary tactical adjustment? Regardless of the answer, one thing is clear: investors need to prepare for a more volatile 2025 than expected