Tesla Q1 Earnings Preview: Shareholders, Analysts Want Answers On Guidance, Tariffs, FSD And More

Tesla Inc. TSLA investors are hoping to get more answers on where things stand with FSD, new electric vehicle models and the impact of tariffs when the company reports its first-quarter financial results on Tuesday after the market close.

Here are the earnings estimates, what analysts and experts are saying and the key items to watch.

Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Tesla to report first-quarter revenue of $21.35 billion, up from $21.30 billion in last year's first quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

Analysts expect the company to report first-quarter earnings per share of 41 cents, down from 45 cents in last year's first quarter. The company beat earnings per share estimates in the fourth quarter.

Tesla has missed analyst estimates for earnings per share in five of the last six quarters and six of the last 10 quarters overall.

Read Also: Here’s How Many Vehicles Tesla Has Delivered, Produced In Each Quarter Since 2019

What Experts Are Saying: Tesla sales are falling, especially in Europe and CEO Elon Musk's focus could be elsewhere, said Jay Woods, Freedom Capital Markets chief global strategist.

"Tesla remains one of the most volatile and discussed stocks in the world. Elon Musk's political bent has made this stock a lightning rod of discussion," Woods said in a weekly newsletter.

Woods wrote that Tesla stock made a full reversal since its "post-election rally" and is poised to move again. "This is not an ideal looking chart for the bulls as key levels of support have been breached, the near-term trend is lower and the long-term trend is a volatile mess."

Woods said the key could be how Tesla's numbers look and if any guidance is given.

"It is not an ideal risk/reward set-up going into the numbers," he adds, while cautioning that the stock could fall to August 2024 lows around $180 if there is weakness.

Analysts have been lowering price targets on Tesla ahead of its first-quarter financial results, following the release of first-quarter deliveries that missed an analyst estimate of more than 377,000 units.

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives, who is among the biggest bulls on Tesla, has been arguing that Musk should be focusing more time on Tesla.

RBC Capital analyst Tom Narayan maintained an Outperform rating on Tesla while lowering the price target from $440 to $320 in March. The analyst argued that demand fears could be overblown at the time, but also lowered pricing assumptions for FSD and the penetration rates of Robotaxis.

Cantor Fitzgerald’s Andres Sheppard was one of the lone Tesla analysts toupgrade the stockin recent months, moving it from Neutral to Overweight with a $425 price target last month.

The upgrade came after visiting Tesla's Austin Gigafactory and the company's AI data centers. Sheppard said Tesla's stock had an attractive entry point at the time ahead of catalysts like the Robotaxi introduction, the rollout of Full Self-Driving, a lower-priced vehicle and Optimus Bot production.

While Sheppard upgraded Tesla stock, he called for a "mild" first quarter for the company, seeing demand weakness and negative sentiment surrounding Musk's political stance.

Here are other recent Tesla analyst ratings and price targets.

• Piper Sandler: Maintained Overweight rating, lowered price target from $450 to $400
• UBS: Maintained Sell rating, lowered price target from $225 to $190
• Mizuho: Maintained Outperform rating, lowered price target from $430 to $375
• Benchmark: Maintained Buy rating, lowered price target from $475 to $350
• Wedbush: Maintained Outperform rating, lowered price target from $550 to $315
• Goldman Sachs; Maintained Neutral rating, lowered price target from $320 to $275

Key Items to Watch: After missing analyst estimates for first-quarter deliveries, any guidance from the company for full-year deliveries will be closely watched by analysts and investors. The company previously said it expected to return to growth for its vehicle business in 2025, but that could now be out of reach.

"The rate of growth will depend on a variety of factors, including the rate of acceleration of our autonomy efforts, production ramp at our factories and the broader macroeconomic environment," the company previously said.

Updates on new vehicles, including more affordable models, will also be closely watched, as the company previously said it remained on track for production in the first half of 2025.

Tariffs and macroeconomic conditions remain concerns for the company, as evidenced by some of the top requested shareholder questions for the first quarter.

The top vote-getters for questions center on several topics, including FSD, Robotaxis, tariffs, and new models. There are numerous questions on tariffs and macroeconomic concerns. While Tesla may be better positioned to handle tariffs on countries like Canada and Mexico, investors are still worried about their impact.

While Tesla assembles and sells its EVs in the U.S., the company imports parts for several vehicles. This week, the company announced it wassuspending plansto ship parts from China for the Cybercab and Tesla Semi.

A top question on “brand damage” could also be significant. Multiple studies and reports have shown that sales have declined and the company’s brand has suffered since Musk’s political involvement in politics grew.

TSLA Price Action: Tesla stock was down 6% to $227.42 on Monday versus a 52-week trading range of $138.80 to $488.54. Tesla stock is down 40% year-to-date in 2025, while shares remain up 60.1% over the last year.

Read Next:

• Tesla Q1 Test Drive: Will Earnings Steer The Stock Out Of The Ditch?

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