Bitcoin's Dual Role Could Propel It To $200,000: Standard Chartered
Bitcoin is gaining traction as a hedge against systemic risk amid concerns over the U.S. Federal Reserve's independence. Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick highlights Bitcoin's dual role as a tech-correlated asset and a safeguard against financial disruptions. He forecasts Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, driven by its expanding utility in diversified portfolios and rising institutional adoption. The asset's behavior aligns more with tech stocks than gold, indicating its potential as both a trading asset and macro hedge.
Bitcoin BTC/USD is regaining attention as a hedge against systemic risk as concerns mount over the independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve.
What Happened: According to Standard Chartered‘s Global Head of Digital Assets Research, Geoffrey Kendrick, Bitcoin has a dual role as both a tech-correlated asset and a safeguard against private and public sector financial disruptions.
In a note sent to Benzinga on Tuesday, Kendrick points to the elevated U.S. 10-year Treasury term premium, now at a 12-year high, as a signal that markets are pricing in deeper uncertainties tied to long-term debt and institutional credibility.
"The current threat to the Fed's independence via Powell's potential replacement falls squarely into the government risk category," Kendrick wrote.
He emphasized that Bitcoin historically serves two major functions in investment portfolios: first, as a hedge against financial system risks, whether from banking sector failures like Silicon Valley Bank's 2023 collapse or from sovereign-level concerns such as U.S. debt credibility.
Second, when these risks are not top-of-mind, Bitcoin often behaves more like a high-growth tech stock.
In support of that view, Standard Chartered constructed a hypothetical index called "Mag 7B," which adds Bitcoin to the traditional "Magnificent 7" tech stock basket (replacing Tesla).
The result: over the past seven years, the Mag 7B portfolio delivered higher returns and lower volatility than the original Mag 7.
The findings suggest Bitcoin can enhance a tech-heavy portfolio while providing downside protection during episodes of systemic stress.
Since the beginning of 2025, Bitcoin has traded in a manner similar to tech giants like Nvidia, especially during bouts of elevated market volatility.
Also Read: Deutsche Bank, Standard Chartered Reportedly Looking Into Expanding To US Crypto Market
Why It Matters: The asset's price behavior since the inauguration of President Donald Trump, Kendrick noted, aligns closely with volatility-adjusted patterns seen in mainstream tech equities.
Bitcoin's performance has diverged from gold, which continues to be more correlated with long-term inflation and geopolitical fears.
Instead, Bitcoin appears more linked to risk-on sentiment and liquidity cycles, underscoring its potential to serve both as a tactical trading asset and a macro hedge.
Kendrick reiterated his year-end forecast of $200,000 for Bitcoin by the end of 2025 and $500,000 by the end of 2028.
These projections, while not the focus of the analytical note, reflect his broader thesis that Bitcoin's utility within diversified portfolios is expanding, supported by spot ETF infrastructure, declining transaction costs, and rising institutional adoption.
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